Nelson Leitão Paes

Mudanças no sistema tributário e no mercado de crédito e seus efeitos sobre a informalidade no Brasil

In this paper we analyze the impacts of some changes in tax and credit policies on informal business in Brazil. To do this, we use a computable general equilibrium approach. The main findings shows that a reduction in 1% of tax rates on production or on labor income or capital income can reduce the size of the informal sector and the number of informal jobs, without reducing tax revenue. A more accurate result can be obtained with a reduction in the cost of credit instead of using lower tax rates. The most effective policy seems to be the reduction of taxes on production.

O impacto do tempo de pendência das patentes na trajetória de crescimento: uma análise com base no modelo schumpeteriano de crescimento endógeno com avanço de qualidade

This study aims to analyze the impact of the patent pendency time on the Balanced Growth Path (BGP). We assume that during the pendency time the innovative agents face an uncertainty period, which affects the R&D efforts. To operate our assumptions we use the schumpeterian endogenous growth model based in Grossman e Helpman (1991a,b) and Aghion e Howitt (1992). Our results show that the pendency time has a negative impact on growth and welfare, so that a longer delay for the patent decision increases the growth loss. This suggests the implementation of policies to reduce efficiently the patent examination time.

THE COST OF DIRECT TAXATION ON INVESTMENT IN BRAZIL

This paper analyzed the impact of taxation on the investment in Brazil, focusing on the taxation of corporate income. Following the literature, it was used an economic model to calculate two indicators of effective tax rates - Effective Marginal Tax Rate (EMTR) and Effective Average Tax Rate (EATR). The EMTR measures the increase of the cost of capital due to corporate income tax. The EATR represents a measure of the average tax rate levied on an investment that has a pre-defined economic profit. The results suggest Brazil may face some difficulties to attract foreign investment. The country presents high rates for EATR and EMTR, higher than the average of the rich countries and well above the figures of development countries like Chile, Mexico, South Africa, Russia and China, potential competitors in attracting investments.

Como o Banco Central tem reagido aos choques (bolhas) nos preços das habitações brasileiras? Uma análise por meio por meio do Modelo Dinâmico Estocástico de Equilíbrio Geral (DSGE)

This article aims to analyze the effects of shocks (bubbles) in real estate prices on Brazilian macroeconomic variables (GDP, inflation and interest rate). Two methodological procedures were used: first, the structural parameters of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model will be obtained through the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The results of this stage will be used to simulate the effects of shocks in the housing prices on a artificial economy. Subsequently, a Vectors Autoregressive (VAR) model is used in which shocks are identified through signal restriction, based on the results obtained by calibration of the theoretical model. The results showed that the effects of bubbles in the Brazilian housing market positively affected subsequent movements in product and inflation; however, the effect of this shock on these variables was only transitory, instead causing persistent effects only on the interest rate.

Fatores econômicos e diferenças de gênero na prevalência do tabagismo em adultos

This article presents a study that seeks to identify the relevant economic variables in the prevalence of smoking in a group of 37 countries. The chosen methodology was to estimate multiple linear regression using the least square approach. The econometric exercise is performed by gender, seeking to examine whether there are different motivations for cigarette smoking among the adult population of men and women. The results show that although taxation is a common element in the decision of both sexes, the decision to smoke among women is also sensitive to price and other social and cultural factors. These factors were based on the fact that women who live in countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development reveal a significantly higher prevalence of cigarette consumption. The evidence presented in this study, therefore, reinforces the perception that taxation is in fact a crucial tool in the control of smoking, but in the specific case of women, higher prices and the promotion of greater equality with men, are also important.

A Substituição da Contribuição Patronal para o Faturamento: Efeitos Macroeconômicos, sobre a Progressividade e Distribuição de Renda no Brasil

Na esfera Nacional, as Medidas Provisorias 563/2012, 582/2012, 601/2012 e 612/2013 propoem a substituicao da aliquota previdenciaria patronal do INSS por uma aliquota tributaria de 1% ou 2% sobre o faturamento, esta alteracao sendo feita em setores economicos intensivos em trabalho. O presente estudo avalia impactos economicos dessas mudancas sobre os agregados, setores e familias na economia brasileira. Os resultados sugerem que os efeitos da substituicao se devem exclusivamente a reducao da carga tributaria embutida na proposta, mas sem impacto relevante na reducao das distorcoes do sistema tributario brasileiro.

Simples Nacional no Brasil: o difícil balanço entre estímulos às pequenas empresas e aos gastos tributários

Brazilian small- and micro-enterprises (SMEs) have high representation in the Brazilian economy, especially in regard to providing employment. This is a significant group with a number of singularities with respect to taxation. Due to the fact that they are small, they may incur greater economic costs than larger companies. Accordingly, many countries have sought to establish specific mechanisms to support SMEs. Brazils Simples Nacional granted a series of tax benefits and administrative simplifications to small- and micro- enterprises. The revenues collected from the Simples Nacional grew at rates well above that of all other taxes, and was three times higher than the real growth rate of the entire revenue collection. The amount collected per SME increased significantly during the period of the Simples Nacional, corroborating the evidence that there was strong growth among companies opting for the new regime. The growth in revenue collection brought an offsetting increase in tax expenditures, which grew at even higher rates than the increase in revenues.

Imposto de Renda da Pessoa Física - Uma análise comparativa do Brasil em relação à América Latina

This article will focus on the comparative study of personal income tax (PIT) in Latin America, with an analysis of the evolution of the tax structure in the region and the revenue collected. It was found that a typical Latin American country collects much less PIT than the average for developed countries, with smaller maximum rates and larger exemption limits. It was also found that the tax rates for Latin American workers with incomes between 67% and 167% of the average wage in each country are well below the average for an OECD country. Regarding Brazil, the taxation of personal income in the country is as expected for a country in the region, with rates and exemption limits consistent with the revenue collected. We conclude that there is ample room for strengthening PIT in Latin America.

Os gastos tributários e seus impactos sobre o desempenho da saúde e da educação

The increase in tax expenditures is a trend observed in many countries. In Brazil, the increase in tax expenditures was marked, with an increase of 47% between 2006 and 2011. Based on data from Latin American countries and the OECD, this paper investigates whether countries with high tax expenditures in relation to budget expenditures perform better in the areas of health and education. The results show that the group of Latin American countries spends much more via taxation than the OECD countries, with Brazil showing a relatively low relationship between tax expenditures and total expenditures for health and education. In relation to social indicators, this article suggests that countries that use tax expenditures more intensively have systematically worse social indicators in education and health.

Análise distributiva do ICMS no estado do Rio de Janeiro - 2002/2003 e 2008/2009

Este artigo analisou os aspectos distributivos ligados ao principal tributo sobre o consumo brasileiro, o ICMS, tomando o estado do Rio de Janeiro como foco para a realizacao do estudo. Tendo por base as informacoes dos microdados das Pesquisas de Orcamento Familiares de 2002-2003 e 2008-2009, foi possivel efetuar o calculo da carga tributaria do ICMS fluminense por grupos de familias e a analise distributiva do imposto no estado, com o calculo dos Indices de Kakwani e de Reynolds-Smolensky para os dois periodos. Confirmou-se o fato de que o ICMS do estado do Rio de Janeiro e muito regressivo com peso elevado para as familias de baixa renda (10,91% da renda total) e relativamente reduzido para as de renda mais elevada (3,66% da renda total). Nao se verificou grande diferenca entre a tributacao no periodo 2002/2003 e 2008/2009, mas houve melhora na distribuicao de renda e menor concentracao do ICMS fluminense. Como consequencia, os efeitos sobre a regressividade do imposto foram ambiguos, com melhoria no indicador de Kakwani e piora no de Reynolds-Smolensky.