Cássio da Nóbrega Besarria

Política Monetária e Preços dos Imóveis no Brasil: uma análise a partir de um modelo DSGE

Este artigo avalia se o comportamento recente do Banco Central do Brasil sugere que a politica monetaria tem reagido a mudancas nos precos das habitacoes. Para responder a esta questao, utilizam-se duas estrategias. Num primeiro momento, sao estimadas funcoes de reacao utilizando metodos de equacoes simples por meio de Minimos Quadrados Ordinarios e Metodos dos Momentos Generalizados. Em um segundo momento, utiliza-se um metodo de informacao completa Bayesiano para estimar funcoes de reacao do banco central dentro de um modelo Dinâmico Estocastico de Equilibrio Geral. Os resultados sugerem que os precos das habitacoes tem entrado explicitamente no processo decisorio da politica monetaria no Brasil.

Effects of income inequality on the economic growth of Brazilian states: An analysis using the cointegrated panel model

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of income inequality on the economic growth of Brazilian states in the period from 1994 to 2014. The transmission mechanism of the effects of income inequality on economic growth is derived from the model proposed by Halter et al. (2014). Design/methodology/approach The empirical formulation adopted to achieve this goal is divided into two stages. The first stage is limited to short-term analysis, and panel data models with fixed effects, random effects, and instrumental variables are used. In the second stage, the discussion turns to the use of the error correction model for a cointegrated panel. Findings The findings of this study suggest that inequalities in income and educational level are the principal determinants of different growth rates among Brazilian states. More specifically, it is found that additional years of schooling positively influence growth. By contrast, income inequality negatively affects this indicator. Originality/value The present study differs from the others in that it adapts the discussion proposed by Halter et al. (2014) to the analysis of Brazilian states. Halter et al. (2014) derive the transmission channel between income inequality and economic growth, showing a non-monotonic adjustment trajectory of production that leads to a linear theoretical model of income inequality and economic growth that is similar to those used in this type of approach.

INTERAÇÃO ENTRE A POLÍTICA MONETÁRIA E OS PREÇOS DAS HABITAÇÕES: EVIDÊNCIAS PARA O CASO BRASILEIRO

This research has the purpose to estimate the degree of interrelationship between housing prices and monetary policy decisions in Brazil. This relationship was obtained through a signal restricted SVAR model for quarterly data sample for the periods between 2001 and 2014. The results demonstrated that inflation, consumption, real GDP of the economy and housing prices responds negatively to a restrictive monetary shock. A shock in housing prices promoted a positive wealth effect, positively affecting consumption and GDP. In other hand, the increase in housing prices affected negatively inflation in the firsts three quarters, soon after, the economy’s general price level rose again, getting above the initial level. This effect on inflation made the interest rate to follow the behavior described by this indicator and initially responded negatively to a rising in housing prices, increasing from the third quarter.

CHOQUES NOS PREÇOS DOS ATIVOS E A DINÂMICA DAS DECISÕES DE POLÍTICA MACROECONÔMICA: UMA ANÁLISE DA RESPOSTA FISCAL E MONETÁRIA A UMA BOLHA HABITACIONAL

The objective of this article is subdivided in the investigation of rational bubbles evidences in the housing prices and in the analysis of shock effects in these asset prices, in monetary and fiscal policy instruments. The discussion about bubbles was limited to the analysis between housing prices and their dividends through linear cointegration tests with structural break. The results suggested that there are evidences of bubbles in the Brazilian housing market. The subsequent discussion evaluated the effects of this shock on the behavior of inflation series, real GDP, household consumption, Selic rate, revenue and government expenditure, labor market and housing finance, through the SVAR model. In short, it was observed that the bubble stimulated fiscal activity in a pro-cyclical behavior. On the other hand, it was found that the monetary policy, aiming to stabilize the inflation and the product, has taken into account the possible destabilizing effects caused by the bubble.

Como o Banco Central tem reagido aos choques (bolhas) nos preços das habitações brasileiras? Uma análise por meio por meio do Modelo Dinâmico Estocástico de Equilíbrio Geral (DSGE)

This article aims to analyze the effects of shocks (bubbles) in real estate prices on Brazilian macroeconomic variables (GDP, inflation and interest rate). Two methodological procedures were used: first, the structural parameters of the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model will be obtained through the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). The results of this stage will be used to simulate the effects of shocks in the housing prices on a artificial economy. Subsequently, a Vectors Autoregressive (VAR) model is used in which shocks are identified through signal restriction, based on the results obtained by calibration of the theoretical model. The results showed that the effects of bubbles in the Brazilian housing market positively affected subsequent movements in product and inflation; however, the effect of this shock on these variables was only transitory, instead causing persistent effects only on the interest rate.

Restrições comerciais ao complexo de soja brasileiro: estudo dos impactos dos subsídios dos Estados Unidos

O presente estudo tem como objetivo geral estudar o complexo de soja brasileiro no periodo de 1990 a 20064, por meio do modelo teorico de Brander-Spencer (1984) e do instrumento de estrategias baseado em Teoria dos Jogos. A metodologia utilizada para a estimacao dos payoffs do jogo entre Brasil e Estados Unidos foi o modelo de Vetores Auto-Regressivos (VAR). A analise do oligopolio, neste trabalho, sera baseada no modelo de Cournot. Para o modelo de Cournot as empresas produzem mercadorias homogeneas e cada uma considera fixo o nivel de producao de sua concorrente. Foi possivel mensurar e analisar, por meio de jogos nao cooperativos, as decisoes estrategicas do Brasil frente as escolhas dos Estados Unidos, destacando a funcao de reacao para o setor do complexo de soja. Os resultados alcancados apontam para uma estrategia dominante no caso brasileiro, verifica-se que a melhor estrategia para Brasil e alta producao. Uma vez que, para o caso de os Estados Unidos nao subsidiar seus produtores, as estimacoes mostraram que a taxa de crescimento das exportacoes brasileira e positiva e representa a melhor escolha, independente da escolha dos Estados Unidos.