Nicholas J. Lunn

Polar Bears in a Warming Climate

Abstract Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) live throughout the ice-covered waters of the circumpolar Arctic, particularly in near shore annual ice over the continental shelf where biological productivity is highest. However, to a large degree under scenarios predicted by climate change models, these preferred sea ice habitats will be substantially altered. Spatial and temporal sea ice changes will lead to shifts in trophic interactions involving polar bears through reduced availability and abundance of their main prey: seals. In the short term, climatic warming may improve bear and seal habitats in higher latitudes over continental shelves if currently thick multiyear ice is replaced by annual ice with more leads, making it more suitable for seals. A cascade of impacts beginning with reduced sea ice will be manifested in reduced adipose stores leading to lowered reproductive rates because females will have less fat to invest in cubs during the winter fast. Non-pregnant bears may have to fast on land or offshore on the remaining multiyear ice through progressively longer periods of open water while they await freeze-up and a return to hunting seals. As sea ice thins, and becomes more fractured and labile, it is likely to move more in response to winds and currents so that polar bears will need to walk or swim more and thus use greater amounts of energy to maintain contact with the remaining preferred habitats. The effects of climate change are likely to show large geographic, temporal and even individual differences and be highly variable, making it difficult to develop adequate monitoring and research programs. All ursids show behavioural plasticity but given the rapid pace of ecological change in the Arctic, the long generation time, and the highly specialised nature of polar bears, it is unlikely that polar bears will survive as a species if the sea ice disappears completely as has been predicted by some.

Does high organochlorine (OC) exposure impair the resistance to infection in polar bears (Ursus maritimus)? Part I: Effect of OCs on the humoral immunity.

This study was undertaken to assess if high levels of organochlorines (OCs) are associated with decreased ability to produce antibodies in free-ranging polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and thus affect the humoral immunity. In 1998 and 1999, 26 and 30 polar bears from Svalbard, Norway, and Churchill, Canada, respectively, were recaptured 32–40 d following immunization with inactivated influenza virus, reovirus, and herpes virus and tetanus toxoid. Blood was sampled at immunization and at recapture for determination of plasma levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), serum immunoglobulin G (IgG) concentrations, and specific antibodies against influenza virus, reovirus, and herpes virus, tetanus toxoid, and Mannheimia haemolytica. The OCs alone contributed with up to 7% to the variations in the immunological parameters. The combination of ∑PCBs (sum of 12 individual PCB congeners), ∑OCPs (sum of 6 OCPs), and biological factors accounted for 40–60% of the variation in the immunological parameters. Negative associations were found between ∑PCBs and serum immunoglobulin G (IgG) levels and between ∑PCBs and increased antibody titers against influenza virus and reovirus following immunization. In contrast, a positive association was registered between ∑PCBs and increased antibodies against tetanus toxoid. ∑OCPs also contributed significantly to the variations in the immunological responses. OCs did not have the same impact on the antibody production against M. haemolytica. The present study demonstrated that high OC levels may impair the polar bears ability to produce antibodies and thus may produce impaired resistance to infections.

Does high organochlorine (OC) exposure impair the resistance to infection in polar bears (Ursus maritimus)? Part II: Possible effect of OCs on mitogen- and antigen-induced lymphocyte proliferation.

Previous studies have reported alarmingly high levels of organochlorines (OCs), particularly polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), in free-ranging polar bears (Ursus maritimus). In this study plasma concentration of PCBs ranged from 14.8 to 200 ng/g wet weight. The aim of the study was to investigate associations between OCs and lymphocyte proliferation after in vitro stimulation with different mitogens and antigens. In 1998 and 1999, 26 and 30 free-ranging polar bears from Svalbard and Churchill, Canada, respectively, were recaptured 32–40 d following immunization with inactivated tetanus toxoid and hemocyanin from keyhole limpets (KLH) to sensitize lymphocytes. At recapture, blood was sampled for determination of plasma levels of PCBs and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and lymphocyte proliferation after in vitro stimulation with specific mitogens—phytohemagglutinin (PHA), pokeweed mitogen (PWM), concanavalin A (Con A), lipopolysaccharide (LPS), and purified protein derivative of Mycobacterium aviumsubsp. paratuberculosis (PPD)—and antigens: tetanus toxoid and KLH. The combinations of ΣPCBs (sum of 12 individual PCB congeners), ΣOCPs (sum of 6 OCPs), and their interactions contributed up to 15% of the variations in the lymphocyte responses. By using multiple regression analyses, followed by classical mathematic function analyses, thresholds for immunomodulation were estimated. Depending on the lymphocyte proliferation response studied, the estimated thresholds for significant immunomodulation were within the concentration ranges 32–89 ng/g wet weight (ww) and 7.8–14 ng/g ww for ΣPCBs and ΣOCPs, respectively. Thus, this study demonstrated that OC exposure significantly influences specific lymphocyte proliferation responses and part of the cell-mediated immunity, which also is associated with impaired ability to produce antibodies (Lie et al., 2004). The authors thank the Norwegian Research Council (NFR, numbers 125693/720 and 140730/720), the Norwegian Ministry of Environment Transport and Effect Program, and the Toxic Substances Research Initiative in Canada for funding this study. The authors thank Tine Borgen for technical assistance in the lymphocyte proliferation test.

Migration phenology and seasonal fidelity of an Arctic marine predator in relation to sea ice dynamics

Understanding how seasonal environmental conditions affect the timing and distribution of synchronized animal movement patterns is a central issue in animal ecology. Migration, a behavioural adaptation to seasonal environmental fluctuations, is a fundamental part of the life history of numerous species. However, global climate change can alter the spatiotemporal distribution of resources and thus affect the seasonal movement patterns of migratory animals. We examined sea ice dynamics relative to migration patterns and seasonal geographical fidelity of an Arctic marine predator, the polar bear (Ursus maritimus). Polar bear movement patterns were quantified using satellite-linked telemetry data collected from collars deployed between 1991-1997 and 2004-2009. We showed that specific sea ice characteristics can predict the timing of seasonal polar bear migration on and off terrestrial refugia. In addition, fidelity to specific onshore regions during the ice-free period was predicted by the spatial pattern of sea ice break-up but not by the timing of break-up. The timing of migration showed a trend towards earlier arrival of polar bears on shore and later departure from land, which has been driven by climate-induced declines in the availability of sea ice. Changes to the timing of migration have resulted in polar bears spending progressively longer periods of time on land without access to sea ice and their marine mammal prey. The links between increased atmospheric temperatures, sea ice dynamics, and the migratory behaviour of an ice-dependent species emphasizes the importance of quantifying and monitoring relationships between migratory wildlife and environmental cues that may be altered by climate change.

A circumpolar monitoring framework for polar bears

Abstract Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) occupy remote regions that are characterized by harsh weather and limited access. Polar bear populations can only persist where temporal and spatial availability of sea ice provides adequate access to their marine mammal prey. Observed declines in sea ice availability will continue as long as greenhouse gas concentrations rise. At the same time, human intrusion and pollution levels in the Arctic are expected to increase. A circumpolar understanding of the cumulative impacts of current and future stressors is lacking, long-term trends are known from only a few subpopulations, and there is no globally coordinated effort to monitor effects of stressors. Here, we describe a framework for an integrated circumpolar monitoring plan to detect ongoing patterns, predict future trends, and identify the most vulnerable polar bear subpopulations. We recommend strategies for monitoring subpopulation abundance and trends, reproduction, survival, ecosystem change, human-caused mortality, human–bear conflict, prey availability, health, stature, distribution, behavioral change, and the effects that monitoring itself may have on polar bears. We assign monitoring intensity for each subpopulation through adaptive assessment of the quality of existing baseline data and research accessibility. A global perspective is achieved by recommending high intensity monitoring for at least one subpopulation in each of four major polar bear ecoregions. Collection of data on harvest, where it occurs, and remote sensing of habitat, should occur with the same intensity for all subpopulations. We outline how local traditional knowledge may most effectively be combined with the best scientific methods to provide comparable and complementary lines of evidence. We also outline how previously collected intensive monitoring data may be sub-sampled to guide future sampling frequencies and develop indirect estimates or indices of subpopulation status. Adoption of this framework will inform management and policy responses to changing worldwide polar bear status and trends.

Estimating the weight of polar bears from body measurements

We measured chest girth, total body length, neck circumference, and zygomatic width of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to determine an accurate predictor of live weight. The derived equations for males and females were weight = 0.000476(chest girth)269 (r2 = 0.97) and weight = 0.000775(chest girth)259 (r2 = 0.95), respectively. Our equations were accurate for all bears >100 kg. J. WILDL. MANAGE. 53(1):188-190 Weight measurements of wild animals are useful for wildlife research and management (Talbot and McCulloch 1965). They serve as indicators of physical condition and may reflect habitat conditions and food availability. Unfortunately, measurements of weight of large animals are difficult to obtain (Cherry and Pelton 1976). Various body parameters have been examined to determine their suitability as accurate predictors of live weight (Bandy et al. 1956, McEwan and Wood 1966, Cherry and Pelton 1976). Several studies demonstrated that accurate estimates of weight can be derived from measurements of chest girth (Payne 1976, Urbston et al. 1976, Kelsall et al. 1978). In the past, weights of polar bears have been obtained by measuring chest girth with a cattle weight tape (Ketchum Mfg. Sales, Ltd., Ottawa, Ont.) (Stirling et al. 1977:54). A high correlation (r2 = 0.97) (n = 97) existed between scale and tape weights; weights of polar bears in the Churchill, Manitoba, area could be predicted to within 92% of the scale weight using a weight tape (Stirling et al. 1977). However, Stirling et al. (1977) did not measure bears >400 kg. A population study of polar bears along the On ario coast of southern Hudson Bay afforded the opportunity to investigate relationships between weights and selected body measurements. Our objective was to determine which sex-specific body measurements provided the most accurate predictor of live weight. S. Anderson, D. S. Andriashek, J. M. Broadfoot, J. F. Danyluck, C. A. Deary, J. J. Doyle, C. D. Hendry, M. J. Hunter, D. G. Joachim, C. F. Lauer, D. R. McKnight, M. A. Regis, W. H. Rohr, H. L. Smith, J. E. Thompson, and R. E. Wheeler provided field support. D. H. Belanger, J. E. Bell, J. R. Kenrick, W. R. Lannin, G. F. McAuley, C. D. MacInnes, T. J. Millard, R. P. Seguin, G. J. Smith, S. J. Toole, and J. K. Young This content downloaded from 157.55.39.116 on Sun, 18 Sep 2016 06:41:36 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms J. Wildl. Manage. 53(1):1989 POLAR BEAR WEIGHTS * Kolenosky et al. 189 provided administrative and logistic support. The Ontario Government Air Service, S. Hemphill and G. Ertel of Ranger Helicopters, and G. Lester and R. A. Laporte of Huisson Aviation provided support. B. Wilkinson typed the paper and C. D. MacInnes reviewed an early draft. This is contribution 87-10 of the Wildlife Research Section, Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Maple.

Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines.

Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (ii) developing a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat; and (iii) using statistical models and computer simulation to project changes in the global population under three approaches relating polar bear abundance to sea ice. Mean GL was 11.5 years. Ice-covered days declined in all subpopulation areas during 1979–2014 (median −1.26 days year−1). The estimated probabilities that reductions in the mean global population size of polar bears will be greater than 30%, 50% and 80% over three generations (35–41 years) were 0.71 (range 0.20–0.95), 0.07 (range 0–0.35) and less than 0.01 (range 0–0.02), respectively. According to IUCN Red List reduction thresholds, which provide a common measure of extinction risk across taxa, these results are consistent with listing the species as vulnerable. Our findings support the potential for large declines in polar bear numbers owing to sea-ice loss, and highlight near-term uncertainty in statistical projections as well as the sensitivity of projections to different plausible assumptions.

Migratory response of polar bears to sea ice loss: to swim or not to swim

&NA; Migratory responses to climate change may vary across and within populations, particularly for species with large geographic ranges. An increase in the frequency of long‐distance swims (> 50 km) is one predicted consequence of climate change for polar bears Ursus maritimus. We examined GPS satellite‐linked telemetry records of 58 adult females and 18 subadults from the Beaufort Sea (BS), and 59 adult females from Hudson Bay (HB), for evidence of long‐distance swimming during seasonal migrations in 2007–2012. We identified 115 swims across both populations. Median swim duration was 3.4 d (range 1.3–9.3 d) and median swim distance was 92 km (range 51–404 km). Swims were significantly more frequent in the BS (n = 100) than HB (n = 15). In the BS, subadults swam as frequently as lone adult females, but more frequently than adult females with offspring. We modelled the likelihood of a polar bear engaging in swims using collar data from the BS. Swims were more likely for polar bears without offspring, with the distance of the pack ice edge from land, the rate at which the pack ice edge retreated, and the mean daily rate of open water gain between June–August. Coupled with an earlier study, the yearly proportions of BS adult females swimming in 2004–2012 were positively associated with the rate of open water gain. Results corroborate the hypothesis that long‐distance swimming by polar bears is likely to occur more frequently as sea ice conditions change due to climate warming. However, results also suggest that the magnitude of the effect likely varies within and between populations.

Temporal Change in the Morphometry-Body Mass Relationship of Polar Bears

ABSTRACT Accurate information on animal body mass is often an essential component of wildlife research and management. However, for many large-bodied species, obtaining direct scale weights from individuals may be difficult. In these cases, morphometric equations (e.g., based on girth or length) may provide accurate and precise estimates of body mass. We developed predictive equations to estimate the body mass of free-ranging polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in western Hudson Bay, Canada. Using multiple linear and non-linear regression, we identified a strong relationship between polar bear body weight and linear measures of straight line length and axillary girth. The mass—morphometry relationship appeared to change over time and we developed separate equations for polar bears measured during 2 time periods, 1980–1996 and 2007–2009. Non-linear models were more accurate and provided body mass estimates within 5.8% (R2= 0.98) and 6.1% (R2= 0.98) of scale weight in the earlier and later time periods, respectively. Earlier equations developed for polar bears in this subpopulation performed poorly when applied to recently sampled individuals. In contrast, some contemporary equations from other regions performed reasonably well, suggesting that temporal changes within a subpopulation may be more pronounced than regional differences and can render earlier predictive equations obsolete. Our results have important implications for current and future studies of polar bear body condition and the effects of ongoing climate warming.

Effects of chemical immobilization on the movement rates of free-ranging polar bears

Abstract The capture and handling of free-ranging animals is an important tool for wildlife research, conservation, and management. However, live capture may expose individual animals to risk of injury, impairment, or mortality. The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) is a species of conservation concern throughout its range and physical mark–recapture techniques have formed the basis of polar bear research and harvest management for decades. We examined movement patterns of polar bears postcapture to measure their recovery from chemical immobilization and determine whether captured bears experienced prolonged effects that would affect individual fitness. Adult female (n = 61) and juvenile (n = 13) polar bears in 3 Canadian subpopulations were captured during the course of other studies using a combination of tiletamine hydrochloride and zolazepam hydrochloride delivered via remote injection from a helicopter. Bears were fitted with satellite-linked global positioning system collars and we used 3 individual-based metrics to assess their recovery from immobilization: time to move 50 m; time to move 100 m; and time to reach a baseline movement rate threshold (km/day) derived from each individuals movements in a fully recovered state (i.e., 30–60 days postcapture). There were no differences in recovery rate metrics across years, age classes, or between females with cubs of different ages. When compared across subpopulations, only the time to move 50 m differed, being shortest in the southern Beaufort Sea. Bears captured on land during the ice-free period in western Hudson Bay and Foxe Basin were more variable in their response to capture than were those handled on the sea ice of the Beaufort Sea, but in all 3 areas, bears showed gradual increases in movement rates. Movement rates indicative of recovery were often reached 48 h after capture and 51 (69%) of 74 bears appeared to be fully recovered in ≤3 days. Consistent with preliminary work on chemical immobilization of polar bears, there was no relationship between drug dose and rate of recovery. Our results indicated that polar bears captured in different locations, seasons, and life-history stages recovered predictably from chemical immobilization in a time frame that is unlikely to affect individual fitness.