Nicholas J. Sanders

What Doesn't Kill You Makes You Weaker: Prenatal Pollution Exposure and Educational Outcomes

I examine the impact of prenatal total suspended particulate (TSP) exposure on educational outcomes using county-level variation in the timing and severity of the industrial recession of the early 1980s as a shock to ambient TSPs (similar to Chay and Greenstone 2003b). I then instrument for pollution levels using county-level changes in relative manufacturing employment. A standard deviation decrease in TSPs in a students year of birth is associated with 2 percent of a standard deviation increase in high school test scores for OLS and 6 percent for IV. I also consider how migration and selection into motherhood relate to my results.

Where have all the young men gone? Using sex ratios to measure fetal death rates

Fetal health is an important consideration in policy formation. Unfortunately, a complete census of fetal deaths, an important measure of overall fetal health, is infeasible, and available data are selectively observed. We consider this issue in the context of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 (CAAA), one of the largest and most influential environmental regulations in the history of the United States. We discuss a model of potential bias in measuring observed fetal deaths, and present the sex ratio of live births as an alternative fetal health endpoint, taking advantage of the finding that males are more vulnerable to side effects of maternal stress in utero. We find the CAAA caused substantial improvements in fetal health, in addition to previously identified reductions in post-natal mortality.

Success Is Something to Sneeze At: Influenza Mortality in Cities that Participate in the Super Bowl

Using county-level Vital Statistics of the United States data from 1974 to 2009, we employ a differences-in-differences framework comparing influenza mortality rates in Bowl-participating counties to nonparticipants. We estimate having a local team in the Super Bowl caused an 18 percent increase in influenza deaths for the population over age 65. Results are most pronounced in years when the dominant influenza strain is more virulent, or when the Super Bowl occurs closer to the peak of influenza season. We find no impacts on influenza mortality in hosting cities. Our findings suggest mitigating transmission at gatherings related to large spectator events could have substantial returns for public health.

Do Smog Checks Affect Smog? Emissions Inspections, Station Quality and Local Air Pollution

Personal automobile emissions are a major source of urban air pollution. Many U.S. states control emissions through mandated vehicle inspections and repairs. But there is little empirical evidence directly linking mandated inspections, maintenance, and local air pollution levels. Using individual-level data from 1998-2012 from Californias inspection program, we estimate the contemporaneous effect of inspections on local air quality by exploiting day-to-day, within-county variation in the number of vehicles nominally repaired and recertified after failing an initial inspection. Additional re-inspections of pre-1985 model year vehicles reduce local carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxide, and particulate matter levels, while re-inspections of newer vehicles with more modern engine technology have no economically significant effect on air pollution. This suggests emissions inspections become less effective at reducing local air pollution as more high-polluting vehicles from the 1970s and 1980s leave the road. We also estimate the importance of station quality, using a metric devised for Californias new STAR certification program. We show re-inspections of older vehicles conducted by low quality inspection stations do not change air pollution, while inspections at high quality stations have a moderate effect on pollution concentrations. We find little effect on ambient ozone levels, regardless of station quality or vehicle age.