Nicholas P. Klingaman

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Exploring key model physics in climate simulations

Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high- and low-rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

Atmosphere‐ocean coupled processes in the Madden‐Julian oscillation

The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is a convectively coupled 30–70 day (intraseasonal) tropical atmospheric mode that drives variations in global weather but which is poorly simulated in most atmospheric general circulation models. Over the past two decades, field campaigns and modeling experiments have suggested that tropical atmosphere-ocean interactions may sustain or amplify the pattern of enhanced and suppressed atmospheric convection that defines the MJO and encourage its eastward propagation through the Indian and Pacific Oceans. New observations collected during the past decade have advanced our understanding of the ocean response to atmospheric MJO forcing and the resulting intraseasonal sea surface temperature fluctuations. Numerous modeling studies have revealed a considerable impact of the mean state on MJO ocean-atmosphere coupled processes, as well as the importance of resolving the diurnal cycle of atmosphere-upper ocean interactions. New diagnostic methods provide insight to atmospheric variability and physical processes associated with the MJO but offer limited insight on the role of ocean feedbacks. Consequently, uncertainty remains concerning the role of the ocean in MJO theory. Our understanding of how atmosphere-ocean coupled processes affect the MJO can be improved by collecting observations in poorly sampled regions of MJO activity, assessing oceanic and atmospheric drivers of surface fluxes, improving the representation of upper ocean mixing in coupled model simulations, designing model experiments that minimize mean state differences, and developing diagnostic tools to evaluate the nature and role of coupled ocean-atmosphere processes over the MJO cycle.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden‐Julian oscillation: Synthesis and summary

The “Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)” project comprises three experiments, designed to evaluate comprehensively the heating, moistening, and momentum associated with tropical convection in general circulation models (GCMs). We consider here only those GCMs that performed all experiments. Some models display relatively higher or lower MJO fidelity in both initialized hindcasts and climate simulations, while others show considerable variations in fidelity between experiments. Fidelity in hindcasts and climate simulations are not meaningfully correlated. The analysis of each experiment led to the development of process-oriented diagnostics, some of which distinguished between GCMs with higher or lower fidelity in that experiment. We select the most discriminating diagnostics and apply them to data from all experiments, where possible, to determine if correlations with MJO fidelity hold across scales and GCM states. While normalized gross moist stability had a small but statistically significant correlation with MJO fidelity in climate simulations, we find no link with fidelity in medium-range hindcasts. Similarly, there is no association between time step to time step rainfall variability, identified from short hindcasts and fidelity in medium-range hindcasts or climate simulations. Two metrics that relate precipitation to free-tropospheric moisture—the relative humidity for extreme daily precipitation and variations in the height and amplitude of moistening with rain rate—successfully distinguish between higher-fidelity and lower fidelity GCMs in hindcasts and climate simulations. To improve the MJO, developers should focus on relationships between convection and both total moisture and its rate of change. We conclude by offering recommendations for further experiments.

The Importance of High-Frequency Sea Surface Temperature Variability to the Intraseasonal Oscillation of Indian Monsoon Rainfall

Abstract While the Indian monsoon exhibits substantial variability on interannual time scales, its intraseasonal variability (ISV) is of greater magnitude and hence of critical importance for monsoon predictability. This ISV comprises a 30–50-day northward-propagating oscillation (NPISO) between active and break events of enhanced and reduced rainfall, respectively, over the subcontinent. Recent studies have implied that coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) were better able to simulate the NPISO than their atmosphere-only counterparts (AGCMs). These studies have forced their AGCMs with SSTs from coupled integrations or observations from satellite-based infrared sounders, both of which underestimate the ISV of tropical SSTs. The authors have forced the 1.25° × 0.83° Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model (HadAM3) with a daily, high-resolution, observed SST analysis from the United Kingdom National Center for Ocean Forecasting that contains greater ISV in the Indian Ocean than past products. One ensemble of ...

The Impact of Finer-Resolution Air–Sea Coupling on the Intraseasonal Oscillation of the Indian Monsoon

AbstractA newly assembled atmosphere–ocean coupled model, called HadKPP, is described and then used to determine the effects of subdaily air–sea coupling and fine near-surface ocean vertical resolution on the representation of the Northern Hemisphere summer intraseasonal oscillation. HadKPP comprises the Hadley Centre atmospheric model coupled to the K-Profile Parameterization ocean boundary layer model.Four 30-member ensembles were performed that vary in ocean vertical resolution between 1 and 10 m and in coupling frequency between 3 and 24 h. The 10-m, 24-h ensemble exhibited roughly 60% of the observed 30–50-day variability in sea surface temperatures and rainfall and very weak northward propagation. Enhancing only the vertical resolution or only the coupling frequency produced modest improvements in variability and just a standing intraseasonal oscillation. Only the 1-m, 3-h configuration generated organized, northward-propagating convection similar to observations. Subdaily surface forcing produced s...

Extreme Rainfall Variability in Australia: Patterns, Drivers, and Predictability*

AbstractLeading patterns of observed monthly extreme rainfall variability in Australia are examined using an empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) method. Extreme rainfall variability is more closely related to mean rainfall variability during austral summer than in winter. The leading EOT patterns of extreme rainfall explain less variance in Australia-wide extreme rainfall than is the case for mean rainfall EOTs. The authors illustrate that, as with mean rainfall, the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has the strongest association with warm-season extreme rainfall variability, while in the cool season the primary drivers are atmospheric blocking and the subtropical ridge. The Indian Ocean dipole and southern annular mode also have significant relationships with patterns of variability during austral winter and spring. Leading patterns of summer extreme rainfall variability have predictability several months ahead from Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and as much as a year in advance from Ind...

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range

Abstract An analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12 to 36 h lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models are presented as part of the “Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO)” project. A lead time of 12–36 h is chosen to constrain the large‐scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin‐up of the models as they adjust to being driven from the Years of Tropical Convection (YOTC) analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large‐scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large intermodel spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at midlevels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behavior shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. The wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. In addition, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.

Coupled versus uncoupled hindcast simulations of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation in the Year of Tropical Convection

This study investigates the impact of a full interactive ocean on daily initialized 15 day hindcasts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), measured against a Met Office Unified Model atmosphere control simulation (atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM)) during a 3 month period of the Year of Tropical Convection. Results indicate that the coupled configuration (coupled general circulation model (CGCM)) extends MJO predictability over that of the AGCM, by up to 3–5 days. Propagation is improved in the CGCM, which we partly attribute to a more realistic phase relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and convection. In addition, the CGCM demonstrates skill in representing downwelling oceanic Kelvin and Rossby waves which warm SSTs along their trajectory, with the potential to feedback on the atmosphere. These results imply that an ocean model capable of simulating internal ocean waves may be required to capture the full effect of air-sea coupling for the MJO.

The Intraseasonal Variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon Using TMI Sea Surface Temperatures and ECMWF Reanalysis

Abstract The northward-propagating intraseasonal (30–40 day) oscillation (NPISO) between active and break monsoon phases exerts a critical control on summer-season rainfall totals over India. Advances in diagnosing these events and comprehending the physical mechanisms behind them may hold the potential for improving their predictability. While previous studies have attempted to extract active and break events from reanalysis data to elucidate a composite life cycle, those studies have relied on first isolating the intraseasonal variability in the record (e.g., through bandpass filtering, removing harmonics, or empirical orthogonal function analysis). Additionally, the underlying physical processes that previous studies have proposed have varied, both among themselves and with studies using general circulation models. A simple index is defined for diagnosing NPISO events in observations and reanalysis, based on lag correlations between outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over India and over the equatorial I...

A Teleconnection between Forced Great Plains Snow Cover and European Winter Climate

Abstract Anomalies in Siberian snow cover have been shown to affect Eurasian winter climate through the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The existence of a teleconnection between North American snow cover and the NAO is far less certain, particularly for limited, regional snow cover anomalies. Using three ensembles of the Community Atmosphere Model, version 2 (CAM2), the authors examined teleconnections between persistent, forced snow cover in the northern Great Plains of the United States and western Eurasian winters. One ensemble allowed the model to freely determine global snow cover, while the other two forced a 72-cm snowpack centered over Nebraska. Of the forced ensembles, the “early-season” (“late season”) simulations initiated the snowpack on 1 November (1 January). The additional snow cover generated lower (higher) sea level pressures and geopotential heights over Iceland (the Azores) and warmer (cooler) temperatures over northern and western (eastern and southeastern) Europe, which suggests the...