Nick Dunstone

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity and African Sahel and Amazonian droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860-2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910-1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol-cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.

Skillful long‐range prediction of European and North American winters

This work was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101), the UK Public Weather Service research program, and the European Union Framework 7 SPECS project. Leon Hermanson was funded as part of his Research Fellowship by Willis as part of Willis Research Network (WRN).

Do seasonal‐to‐decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?

Seasonal-to-decadal predictions are inevitably uncertain, depending on the size of the predictable signal relative to unpredictable chaos. Uncertainties can be accounted for using ensemble techniques, permitting quantitative probabilistic forecasts. In a perfect system, each ensemble member would represent a potential realization of the true evolution of the climate system, and the predictable components in models and reality would be equal. However, we show that the predictable component is sometimes lower in models than observations, especially for seasonal forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation and multiyear forecasts of North Atlantic temperature and pressure. In these cases the forecasts are underconfident, with each ensemble member containing too much noise. Consequently, most deterministic and probabilistic measures underestimate potential skill and idealized model experiments underestimate predictability. However, skilful and reliable predictions may be achieved using a large ensemble to reduce noise and adjusting the forecast variance through a postprocessing technique proposed here.

The influence of anthropogenic aerosol on multi-decadal variations of historical global climate

Analysis of single forcing runs from CMIP5 (the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) simulations shows that the mid-twentieth century temperature hiatus, and the coincident decrease in precipitation, is likely to have been influenced strongly by anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Models that include a representation of the indirect effect of aerosol better reproduce inter-decadal variability in historical global-mean near-surface temperatures, particularly the cooling in the 1950s and 1960s, compared to models with representation of the aerosol direct effect only. Models with the indirect effect also show a more pronounced decrease in precipitation during this period, which is in better agreement with observations, and greater inter-decadal variability in the inter-hemispheric temperature difference. This study demonstrates the importance of representing aerosols, and their indirect effects, in general circulation models, and suggests that inter-model diversity in aerosol burden and representation of aerosol–cloud interaction can produce substantial variation in simulations of climate variability on multi-decadal timescales.

Surface magnetic fields on two accreting T Tauri stars: CV Cha and CR Cha

We have produced brightness and magnetic field maps of the surfaces of CV Cha and CR Cha: two actively accreting G- and K-type T Tauri stars in the Chamaeleon I star-forming cloud with ages of 3–5 Myr. Our magnetic field maps show evidence for strong, complex multipolar fields similar to those obtained for young rapidly rotating main-sequence stars. Brightness maps indicate the presence of dark polar caps and low-latitude spots – these brightness maps are very similar to those obtained for other pre-main-sequence and rapidly rotating main-sequence stars. Only two other classical T Tauri stars have been studied using similar techniques so far: V2129 Oph and BP Tau. CV Cha and CR Cha show magnetic field patterns that are significantly more complex than those recovered for BP Tau, a fully convective T Tauri star. We discuss possible reasons for this difference and suggest that the complexity of the stellar magnetic field is related to the convection zone; with more complex fields being found in T Tauri stars with radiative cores (V2129 Oph, CV Cha and CR Cha). However, it is clearly necessary to conduct magnetic field studies of T Tauri star systems, exploring a wide range of stellar parameters in order to establish how they affect magnetic field generation, and thus how these magnetic fields are likely to affect the evolution of T Tauri star systems as they approach the main sequence.

Predictability of the quasi‐biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales

The predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is examined in initialized climate forecasts extending out to lead times of years. We use initialized retrospective predictions made with coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models that have an internally generated QBO. We demonstrate predictability of the QBO extending more than 3 years into the future, well beyond timescales normally associated with internal atmospheric processes. Correlation scores with observational analyses exceed 0.7 at a lead time of 12 months. We also examine the variation of predictability with season and QBO phase and find that skill is lowest in winter. An assessment of perfect predictability suggests that higher skill may be achievable through improved initialization and climate modeling of the QBO, although this may depend on the realism of gravity wave source parameterizations in the models. Finally, we show that skilful prediction of the QBO itself does not guarantee predictability of the extratropical winter teleconnection that is important for surface winter climate prediction.

The coronal structure of AB Doradus determined from contemporaneous Doppler imaging and X-ray spectroscopy

We obtain contemporaneous observations of the surface and corona of AB Doradus (AB Dor), a young single cool star, using ground-based circularly polarized spectra from the AngloAustralian Telescope and X-ray light curves and spectra from the Chandra satellite. The ground-based data are used to construct surface magnetic field maps, which are extrapolated to produce detailed models of the quiescent corona. The X-ray data serve as a new test for the validity of these coronal models. We find that AB Dor’s X-ray corona must be concentrated close to its surface, with a height, H ∼ 0.3‐0.4R∗; this height is determined by the high coronal density and complex multipolar magnetic field from the surface maps. There is also significant correlation between the positions of surface and coronal active longitudes as determined from the surface spot and magnetic field maps and the X-ray light curve. At this epoch (2002 December) AB Dor appears to possess one very large active longitude region, covering almost half the star; displaying enhanced activity in the form of large dark spots, strong magnetic fields and chromospheric emission. This is unusual as previous surface maps of AB Dor typically display more active regions that span a wider range of longitudes. Finally, the level of rotational modulation and shape of the X-ray light curve depend on the distribution of magnetic field in the obscured hemisphere (AB Dor is inclined by 60 ◦ ). The models that best reproduce the rotational modulation observed in the contemporaneous Chandra X-ray light curve and spectra require the magnetic field in the obscured hemisphere to be of the same polarity as that in the observed hemisphere. The Sun shows different behaviour, with the leading polarity reversed in the opposite hemisphere. The X-ray observations provide a unique constraint on the magnetic structure in the obscured hemisphere.

Forecast cooling of the Atlantic subpolar gyre and associated impacts

Decadal variability in the North Atlantic and its subpolar gyre (SPG) has been shown to be predictable in climate models initialized with the concurrent ocean state. Numerous impacts over ocean and land have also been identified. Here we use three versions of the Met Office Decadal Prediction System to provide a multimodel ensemble forecast of the SPG and related impacts. The recent cooling trend in the SPG is predicted to continue in the next 5 years due to a decrease in the SPG heat convergence related to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. We present evidence that the ensemble forecast is able to skilfully predict these quantities over recent decades. We also investigate the ability of the forecast to predict impacts on surface temperature, pressure, precipitation, and Atlantic tropical storms and compare the forecast to recent boreal summer climate.

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

Magnetic fields and differential rotation on the pre-main sequence – I. The early-G star HD 141943 – brightness and magnetic topologies

Spectroscopic and spectropolarimetric observations of the pre-main sequence early-G star HD 141943 were obtained at four observing epochs (in 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2010). The observations were undertaken at the 3.9-m Anglo-Australian Telescope using the UCLES echelle spectrograph and the SEMPOL spectropolarimeter visitor instrument. Brightness and surface magnetic field topologies were reconstructed for the star using the technique of least-squares deconvolution to increase the signal-to-noise ratio of the data. The reconstructed brightness maps show that HD 141943 had a weak polar spot and a significant amount of low-latitude features, with little change in the latitude distribution of the spots over the 4 yr of observations. The surface magnetic field was reconstructed at three of the epochs from a high-order (l≤ 30) spherical harmonic expansion of the spectropolarimetric observations. The reconstructed magnetic topologies show that in 2007 and 2010 the surface magnetic field was reasonably balanced between poloidal and toroidal components. However, we find tentative evidence of a change in the poloidal/toroidal ratio in 2009 with the poloidal component becoming more dominant. At all epochs the radial magnetic field is predominantly non-axisymmetric while the azimuthal field is predominantly axisymmetric with a ring of positive azimuthal field around the pole similar to that seen on other active stars.