Nicolai V. Kuminoff

DO “CAPITALIZATION EFFECTS” FOR PUBLIC GOODS REVEAL THE PUBLIC'S WILLINGNESS TO PAY?

This article develops a welfare theoretic framework for interpreting evidence on the impacts of public programs on housing markets. We extend Rosens hedonic model to explain how housing prices capitalize exogenous shocks to public goods and externalities. The model predicts that trading between heterogeneous buyers and sellers will drive a wedge between these “capitalization effects” and welfare changes. We test this hypothesis in the context of changes in measures of school quality in five metropolitan areas. Results from boundary discontinuity designs suggest that capitalization effects understate parents’ willingness to pay for public school improvements by as much as 75%.

Are Travelers Willing to Pay a Premium to Stay at a "Green" Hotel? Evidence from an Internal Meta-Analysis of Hedonic Price Premia

A growing number of hotels provide “green” lodging for travelers with strong environmental preferences. Twelve states have developed certification programs to regulate these claims. After describing the new market for green lodging, we use data on prices and amenities of “green” and “brown” hotels in Virginia to estimate a hedonic model of hotel room pricing. We find that travelers can expect to pay a significant premium for a standard room in a green hotel. An internal meta-analysis is used to evaluate the robustness of this result to subjective econometric modeling decisions. Our results indicate a premium between

Skip the trip: air travelers' behavioral responses to pandemic influenza.

9 and

Merging Economics and Epidemiology to Improve the Prediction and Management of Infectious Disease

26.

The Value of Residential Land and Structures during the Great Housing Boom and Bust

Theory suggests that human behavior has implications for disease spread. We examine the hypothesis that individuals engage in voluntary defensive behavior during an epidemic. We estimate the number of passengers missing previously purchased flights as a function of concern for swine flu or A/H1N1 influenza using 1.7 million detailed flight records, Google Trends, and the World Health Organizations FluNet data. We estimate that concern over “swine flu,” as measured by Google Trends, accounted for 0.34% of missed flights during the epidemic. The Google Trends data correlates strongly with media attention, but poorly (at times negatively) with reported cases in FluNet. Passengers show no response to reported cases. Passengers skipping their purchased trips forwent at least

Measured voluntary avoidance behaviour during the 2009 A/H1N1 epidemic.

50 M in travel related benefits. Responding to actual cases would have cut this estimate in half. Thus, people appear to respond to an epidemic by voluntarily engaging in self-protection behavior, but this behavior may not be responsive to objective measures of risk. Clearer risk communication could substantially reduce epidemic costs. People undertaking costly risk reduction behavior, for example, forgoing nonrefundable flights, suggests they may also make less costly behavior adjustments to avoid infection. Accounting for defensive behaviors may be important for forecasting epidemics, but linking behavior with epidemics likely requires consideration of risk communication.

Environmental Regulations and the Welfare Effects of Job Layoffs in the United States: A Spatial Approach

Mathematical epidemiology, one of the oldest and richest areas in mathematical biology, has significantly enhanced our understanding of how pathogens emerge, evolve, and spread. Classical epidemiological models, the standard for predicting and managing the spread of infectious disease, assume that contacts between susceptible and infectious individuals depend on their relative frequency in the population. The behavioral factors that underpin contact rates are not generally addressed. There is, however, an emerging a class of models that addresses the feedbacks between infectious disease dynamics and the behavioral decisions driving host contact. Referred to as “economic epidemiology” or “epidemiological economics,” the approach explores the determinants of decisions about the number and type of contacts made by individuals, using insights and methods from economics. We show how the approach has the potential both to improve predictions of the course of infectious disease, and to support development of novel approaches to infectious disease management.

Evaluation of policy options for expanding oyster aquaculture in Virginia.

This study examines how the value of residential land and structures evolved during the great housing boom and bust, using data on more than a million residential properties that were sold in 10 metropolitan areas between 1998 and 2009. We use a hedonic estimator to disentangle the market value of land and structures at a local (Census tract) level. Our estimates reveal substantial heterogeneity in the evolution of the market value of land and structures within metropolitan areas. Surprisingly, lowervalue land at the urban fringes of metropolitan areas was the most volatile during the boom-bust. (JEL R14, R21)

Revisiting the temperature-economic growth relationship using global subnational data

Managing infectious disease is among the foremost challenges for public health policy. Interpersonal contacts play a critical role in infectious disease transmission, and recent advances in epidemiological theory suggest a central role for adaptive human behaviour with respect to changing contact patterns. However, theoretical studies cannot answer the following question: are individual responses to disease of sufficient magnitude to shape epidemiological dynamics and infectious disease risk? We provide empirical evidence that Americans voluntarily reduced their time spent in public places during the 2009 A/H1N1 swine flu, and that these behavioural shifts were of a magnitude capable of reducing the total number of cases. We simulate 10 years of epidemics (2003–2012) based on mixing patterns derived from individual time-use data to show that the mixing patterns in 2009 yield the lowest number of total infections relative to if the epidemic had occurred in any of the other nine years. The World Health Organization and other public health bodies have emphasized an important role for ‘distancing’ or non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our empirical results suggest that neglect for voluntary avoidance behaviour in epidemic models may overestimate the public health benefits of public social distancing policies.

Which hedonic models can we trust to recover the marginal willingness to pay for environmental amenities

This article develops welfare-consistent measures of the employment effects of environmental regulation. Our analysis is based on a microeconomic model of how households with heterogeneous preferences and skills decide where to live and work. We use the model to examine how job loss and unemployment would affect workers in Northern California. Our stylized simulations produce earnings losses that are consistent with empirical evidence. They also produce two new insights. First, we find that earnings losses are sensitive to business cycle conditions. Second, we find that earnings losses may substantially understate welfare losses once we account for the fact that workers may have to commute further or live in a less desirable community after losing a job.