Nicolas Pinaud

Decentralisation and Poverty in Developing Countries

Decentralisation has been advocated by donors and development agencies as an important factor broadening citizen participation and improving local governance, thereby promoting poverty reduction from the bottom up. On the basis of a comprehensive review of 19 country case studies documented in the literature, this paper questions this assumption.

The Developmental Impact of the Asian Drivers on Senegal

Abstract (1250) Eric Hazard, Lotje De Vries, Mamadou Alimou Barry and Alexis Aka Anouan, with Nicolas Pinaud Copyright 2009 The Author. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The Developmental Impact of Asian Drivers on Kenya with Emphasis on Textiles and Clothing Manufacturing

Abstract (1251) Paul Kamau with Dorothy McCormick and Nicolas Pinaud Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The Asian Drivers and Africa: Learning from Case Studies

When the OECD Development Centre launched research in 2005 to document the economic, political and social impacts of China’s and India’s economic growth on sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, the arrival (or resurgence) of new important players had triggered concerns among traditional donors. Accusations ran from free riding on Western debt relief over violation of governance standards and unfair company competition to fragmentation of aid delivery. At the same time, there was a tendency to neglect the diversity of SSA in terms of resource endowments, trade links and industrial development. It was time then to promote African voices from various backgrounds to reflect Africa’s heterogeneity. The introductory section presents a summary of findings about the economic impact of the two Asian giants in SSA countries by Africa-based economists, with three practical conclusions. First, African countries should favour strategies that minimise areas of direct competition with the Asian giants. Second, industrialisation strategies are required to exploit opportunities complementary to the Asian development path. Third, sectors of mutual interest should be identified in order to develop long-term views on how to cooperate with China and India and these views should be mainstreamed into national development plans.

Pricing the Currency Premium Under Flexible Exchange Rates

The currency premium is one of the three components of the differential between local and foreign interest rates. Emerging economies such as South Africa typically face positive interest rate differentials, i.e., a higher cost of capital than developed economies. In this paper we aim at identifying the determinants of the South African rand-U.S. dollar currency premium. Using monthly data over the period 1997-2008, we carry out an empirical analysis of the determinants of the 1-month and 1-year currency premium. We find that the currency premium at both horizons are driven by long-run movements in the expected inflation differential between South Africa and the U.S., risk aversion as a proxy for the price of rand exchange risk, and the volatility of the rand exchange rate as an indicator of the quantity of that risk. Misalignments in the real effective or rand-U.S. dollar bilateral exchange rates display mixed results in terms of their impact and statistical significance on both currency premium. Our parameter estimators overall are stable and robust to sample variations.

Africans Need not Miss Out on the Benefits of Globalisation

Strong commodity prices are driving Africa’s growth, which should be about 6 % in 2007 and 2008. External vulnerability is a function of its limited integration into international trade and investment flows. Africa should mobilise external sources more strategically. In this respect, aid for trade can be import. * This Policy Insights introduces the African Economic Outlook 2007.

L'essor de la Chine et de l'Inde

Cet ouvrage apporte la preuve que l’affirmation de la puissance economique de la Chine et de l’Inde influence des a present les schemas de croissance des pays africains, particulierement des pays exportateurs de petrole et de produits de base. L’augmentation des cours mondiaux des produits de base aura certes des retombees positives sur les pays producteurs d’Afrique et du monde entier, mais d’autres parametres entrent egalement en jeu. Certains pays d’Afrique delaissent aujourd’hui leurs partenaires traditionnels de l’OCDE au profit de la Chine et de l’Inde, que ce soit dans leurs echanges commerciaux, ou dans leurs autres formes de relations. Cet ouvrage analyse les consequences de cette evolution et parvient a des conclusions surprenantes