Nicole Van Der Gaag

Determinants of the subnational distribution of immigration

This paper addresses the issue of the subnational distribution of immigrants. In particular the following question is discussed: what factors, in general, account for the regional attractiveness to immigrants to settle in a particular region, and, more specifically, what are the most important factors influencing the spatial pattern of immigration in a selected number of European countries? In addition, the spatial pattern of destinations of immigration, as well as of foreign populations is discussed. Within this framework, attention is focused on the relationship between stocks of foreigners and immigration flows. The study was motivated by the need to improve assumptions on the regional distribution of immigration to be implemented in subnational population projections. The overall conclusion is that assumptions on the spatial distribution of immigration flows could be improved by using the spatial distribution of stocks of foreign population as predictor. Copyright Royal Dutch Geographical Society 2001.

Modelling Regional Immigration: Using Stocks to Predict Flows

This paper explores thefeasibility of improving regional internationalmigration assumptions by analysing therelationship between international migrationflows and foreign population structures.Regional projection models are discussed andempirically tested using data for Sweden. Theresults show that regional assumptions oninternational migration of foreigners could beimproved by using the spatial distribution ofstocks of foreigners as predictor.Improvements, however, are only minor and donot seem to compensate for the loss insimplicity of the models. This is especiallytrue at the aggregate level of immigrantgroups. Only for relatively new immigrantgroups, improvements are substantial.This paper explores the feasibility of improving regional international migration assumptions by analysing the relationship between international migration flows and foreign population structures. Regional projection models are discussed and empirically tested using data for Sweden. The results show that regional assumptions on international migration of foreigners could be improved by using the spatial distribution of stocks of foreigners as predictor. Improvements, however, are only minor and do not seem to compensate for the loss in simplicity of the models. This is especially true at the aggregate level of immigrant groups. Only for relatively new immigrant groups, improvements are substantial.

Demographic Epidemiologic Projections of Long-Term Care Needs in Selected European Countries: Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Poland

Work Package 2 of the ANCIEN project assesses the future numbers of care-dependent elderly in four selected countries: Spain, Poland, Germany and the Netherlands. The estimates are consistent with the available disability data and the mortality forecasts of the EUROPOP 2008 scenarios. The results show the effects of assumptions about how old age disability and mortality are related, and assess the effects of smoking and BMI. The main determinant of future numbers of disabled elderly turns out to be the demographic ageing of the large baby boom cohorts. The impact of life extension depends on the correlation of old age disability and mortality, and is moderate under reasonable assumptions. Obesity and (quitting) smoking have very little effect.

Uniformity and Diversity Scenarios for International Migration

Although international migration has been included only recently as a separate component of population change in demographic projections, it has become one of its key elements (Salt and Singleton, 1995). In a growing number of countries, the migration component is now more important for population growth than natural increase (Munz, 1990), which has recently even become negative in some cases. For most European countries this is a new demographic situation. Until the 1970s, high fertility caused the well-known baby-boom in Europe, which, combined with reduced mortality levels, was the main component of population growth after the Second World War. It was also after the Second World ar that Europe turned into an important immigration area. At first, the threat of an impenetrable Iron Curtain cutting off the states in central and eastern Europe from the rest of Europe, made many people flee to the west. Moreover, due to the process of de-colonisation many European countries with a colonial history have experienced substantial inflows of returning migrants. This process often resulted in permanent migratory contacts between the former colonies and the colonisers (Van de Kaa, 1996b). Furthermore, by the end of the 1950s and continuing into the 1960s migration to northwest Europe was generated by a growing demand for labour (Fassmann and Munz, 1992). These migrant workers came primarily from southern European countries, from Turkey and later from northern Africa.