Nigel Leader-Williams

Quantification of Extinction Risk: IUCN's System for Classifying Threatened Species

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species was increasingly used during the 1980s to assess the conservation status of species for policy and planning purposes. This use stimulated the development of a new set of quantitative criteria for listing species in the categories of threat: critically endangered, endangered, and vulnerable. These criteria, which were intended to be applicable to all species except microorganisms, were part of a broader system for classifying threatened species and were fully implemented by IUCN in 2000. The system and the criteria have been widely used by conservation practitioners and scientists and now underpin one indicator being used to assess the Convention on Biological Diversity 2010 biodiversity target. We describe the process and the technical background to the IUCN Red List system. The criteria refer to fundamental biological processes underlying population decline and extinction. But given major differences between species, the threatening processes affecting them, and the paucity of knowledge relating to most species, the IUCN system had to be both broad and flexible to be applicable to the majority of described species. The system was designed to measure the symptoms of extinction risk, and uses 5 independent criteria relating to aspects of population loss and decline of range size. A species is assigned to a threat category if it meets the quantitative threshold for at least one criterion. The criteria and the accompanying rules and guidelines used by IUCN are intended to increase the consistency, transparency, and validity of its categorization system, but it necessitates some compromises that affect the applicability of the system and the species lists that result. In particular, choices were made over the assessment of uncertainty, poorly known species, depleted species, population decline, restricted ranges, and rarity; all of these affect the way red lists should be viewed and used. Processes related to priority setting and the development of national red lists need to take account of some assumptions in the formulation of the criteria.

Governance and the loss of biodiversity

Most of the worlds biodiversity occurs within developing countries that require donor support to build their conservation capacity. Unfortunately, some of these countries experience high levels of political corruption, which may limit the success of conservation projects by reducing effective funding levels and distorting priorities. We investigated whether changes in three well surveyed and widespread components of biodiversity were associated with national governance scores and other socio-economic measures. Here we show that governance scores were correlated with changes in total forest cover, but not with changes in natural forest cover. We found strong associations between governance scores and changes in the numbers of African elephants and black rhinoceroses, and these socio-economic factors explained observed patterns better than any others. Finally, we show that countries rich in species and identified as containing priority areas for conservation have lower governance scores than other nations. These results stress the need for conservationists to develop and implement policies that reduce the effects of political corruption and, in this regard, we question the universal applicability of an influential approach to conservation that seeks to ban international trade in endangered species.

Bringing the Tiger Back from the Brink—The Six Percent Solution

The Tiger Summit, to be hosted by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in Russia in November 2010—the Chinese Year of the Tiger and the International Year of Biodiversity—promises to be the most significant meeting ever held to discuss the fate of a single non-human species. The Summit will culminate efforts by the Global Tiger Initiative (GTI), launched in 2008 by Robert Zoellick, World Bank President. Leaders of 13 tiger range states, supported by international donors and conservationists attending the summit, are being asked to commit to substantive measures to prevent the unthinkable: extinction of the worlds last wild tiger populations. Wild tiger numbers are at an historic low. There is no evidence of breeding populations of tigers in Cambodia, China, Vietnam, and DPR Korea. Current approaches to tiger conservation are not slowing the decline in tiger numbers [1]–[3], which has continued unabated over the last two decades. While the scale of the challenge is enormous, we submit that the complexity of effective implementation is not: commitments should shift to focus on protecting tigers at spatially well-defined priority sites, supported by proven best practices of law enforcement, wildlife management, and scientific monitoring. Conflict with local people needs to be mitigated. We argue that such a shift in emphasis would reverse the decline of wild tigers and do so in a rapid and cost-efficient manner.

Sustainable use and incentive-driven conservation: realigning human and conservation interests

Discussions of sustainable use have become polarized. Welfarists oppose all use that involves killing animals. Among conservationists polarization arises in part from failure to distinguish between different ideas nestled under the umbrella term of ‘sustainable use’. These include direct use as an imperative or choice, the ideal of keeping any use within biologically sustainable limits, and use as a possible conservation strategy that can create positive incentives, which are key where land could otherwise be converted to biodiversity-unfriendly practices. People will continue to use wild living resources, which increasing human populations could further deplete. In response the conservation community can follow one of two approaches. On the one hand, it can try to stop use through the establishment of strictly protected areas and by enforcing legislation, although many would question the ethical position of imposing such an approach. On the other hand, it can work to introduce the wider management systems needed to deliver sustainable use and, if possible, incentive-driven conservation. Because most rural populations will continue using wild living resources in human-dominated landscapes, sustainable use and incentive-driven conservation should both be at the centre of the conservation agenda this century. Both species- and ecosystem-based management are likely to have a role in sustainable use. However, current enthusiasm for the ecosystem approach may throw up unexpected consequences, making the search for sustainability even more polarized. Nevertheless, direct use of species cannot provide sufficient incentives to ensure the continued delivery of ecosystem services, which need to be fully incorporated in the global accounting system.

Tourism and flagship species in conservation

There is a continuing debate about the role of surrogate species in conservation. In theory, focusing conservation efforts on certain key species is cost effective if by protecting these species wider biodiversity will also be conserved. Critics suggest that such flagship, umbrella, indicator and keystone species are often ill-defined and unproven in practice, and may detract from wider ecosystem conservation priorities (Simberloff 1998; Caro and O’Doherty 1999). These criticisms may hold for the ecological surrogates (umbrella, indicator and keystone species), i.e. those that are perceived to represent wider biodiversity because of their ecological characteristics such as their spatial relationship to other species or their niche within a community (Berger 1997). We argue, however, that flagships perform a strategic socio-economic role rather than an ecological one, that may support rather than compete with wider conservation priorities on a number of levels.

A model of incentives for the illegal exploitation of black rhinos and elephants : poaching pays in Luangwa Valley, Zambia

1. The decline of Africas rhinos and elephants over the past decade has alarmed conservationists, yet little is known about the interaction between law enforcement and the economic incentives for illegal exploitation. This study models the relationships between financial gains, detection and penalties for poaching rhinos and elephants in Luangwa Valley, Zambia during 1979-85. 2. We explore how sentencing strategies affect the decisions of poachers in relation to changes in detection rate, penalty and economic variables. We show that a penalty which varies with the output of a poacher is, in theory, a more effective tool against poaching than a fixed penalty. However, the probability of capture is a highly significant factor in the poachers decision to hunt. 3. The incentives to poach are modelled for an open access situation, the industry structure for a local poacher, and for a monopolist who employs organized gangs. Organized and local gangs have very different reactions to law enforcement. Local poachers will respond to local investment schemes, but the deterrence of organized gangs can only be achieved with improved law enforcement operations.

Let the locals lead.

To save biodiversity, on-the-ground agencies need to set the conservation research agenda, not distant academics and non-governmental organizations, argue Robert J. Smith and colleagues.

Identifying governance strategies that effectively support ecosystem services, resource sustainability, and biodiversity

Conservation scientists, national governments, and international conservation groups seek to devise, and implement, governance strategies that mitigate human impact on the environment. However, few studies to date have systematically investigated the performance of different systems of governance in achieving successful conservation outcomes. Here, we use a newly-developed analytic framework to conduct analyses of a suite of case studies, linking different governance strategies to standardized scores for delivering ecosystem services, achieving sustainable use of natural resources, and conserving biodiversity, at both local and international levels. Our results: (i) confirm the benefits of adaptive management; and (ii) reveal strong associations for the role of leadership. Our work provides a critical step toward implementing empirically justified governance strategies that are capable of improving the management of human-altered environments, with benefits for both biodiversity and people.

Mapping and predicting deforestation patterns in the lowlands of Sumatra

Protected area managers have limited resources and so need fine-scale information to decide where to focus their budgets for law enforcement and community outreach. This study used satellite imagery to map and analyse forest loss in an area that overlaps with Kerinci Seblat National Park, Sumatra, to identify areas most susceptible to illegal logging. Between 1985 and 1992, forest located at lower elevation and close to roads was most vulnerable to clearance. These factors were also significant between 1992 and 1999, along with distance to newly created logging roads. The presence of these roads probably explained why the deforestation rate increased from 1.1% per year to 3.0% per year over the two study periods. The accuracy of the 1985–1992 model was measured in the field and successfully predicted subsequent deforestation patterns, suggesting that this methodology could be used to identify where future patrolling effort and community outreach programmes should be focussed. In addition, this approach could be used more widely in conservation planning to prioritise the protection of vulnerable sites.

Impact of livestock and settlement on the large mammalian wildlife of Bale Mountains National Park, southern Ethiopia

Large mammals, both wild and domestic, were censused in four study areas in Bale Mountains National Park (BMNP), southern Ethiopia, from April until August 1997, using established road counts, horse-back counts and systematic transects, a new approach to censusing large mammals in BMNP. Data collected since 1983 were also examined to indicate trends in mammalian abundance. Civil unrest following the government changeover in 1991 disrupted management of BMNP, leading to an increase in human settlement and livestock densities. The effect of these factors on BMNPs wildlife is assessed and discussed. Most large mammalian wildlife has declined since 1983 but signs of recovery for some species in recent years are positive. The fates of two charismatic endemics are emphasised. BMNPs current population of mountain nyala (Tragelaphus buxtoni, an endangered antelope) was estimated to be between 1100 and 1300. This is lower than estimates for the late 1980s, but shows an increase from very low levels recorded following social turmoil during the government changeover in 1991. Data on the Ethiopian wolf (Canis simensis, a critically endangered canid) also indicate positive trends in abundance, following severe declines between 1989 and 1992 due to rabies epizootics. Action to reduce human utilisation of parts of BMNP is urgently required to prevent further degradation of the environment and to safeguard the future of both the mountain nyala and Ethiopian wolf.