Nik Lomax

Using the 2001 and 2011 Censuses to reconcile ethnic group estimates and components for the intervening decade for English local authority districts

This chapter describes the creation of new estimates of ethnic populations and components of change in local authority districts (LADs) in England for years between the 2001 and 2011 Censuses. Information on ethnic populations by age and gender is provided in censuses. In between censuses, information on ethnic population change is scarce. To fill the gap we used data from the two censuses with reconciled total population and component estimates published by the Office of National Statistics. This chapter outlines the sequence of steps used to produce a ten-year time series. These reconciled population and component estimates provide a firmer foundation for ethnic-specific projections than hitherto available. The role of the census in this work is vital.

Estimating Population Attribute Values in a Table: “Get Me Started in” Iterative Proportional Fitting

Iterative proportional fitting (IPF) is a technique that can be used to adjust a distribution reported in one data set by totals reported in others. IPF is used to revise tables of data where the information is incomplete, inaccurate, outdated, or a sample. Although widely applied, the IPF methodology is rarely presented in a way that is accessible to nonexpert users. This article fills that gap through discussion of how to operationalize the method and argues that IPF is an accessible and transparent tool that can be applied to a range of data situations in population geography and demography. It offers three case study examples where IPF has been applied to geographical data problems; the data and algorithms are made available to users as supplementary material.

Classification of Westminster Parliamentary constituencies using e-petition data

In a representative democracy it is important that politicians have knowledge of the desires, aspirations and concerns of their constituents. Opportunities to gauge these opinions are however limited and, in the era of novel data, thoughts turn to what alternative, secondary, data sources may be available to keep politicians informed about local concerns. One such source of data are signatories to electronic petitions (e-petitions). Such e-petitions have risen greatly in popularity over the past decade and allow members of the public to initiate and sign an e-petition online, with popular e-petitions resulting in media attention, a response from the government or ultimately a debate in parliament. These data are thus novel in their availability and have not yet been widely used for research purposes. In this article we will use the e-petition data to show how semantic classes of Westminster Parliamentary constituencies, fitted as Gaussian finite mixture models via EM algorithm, can be used to typify constituencies. We identify four classes: Domestic Liberals; International Liberals; Nostalgic Brits and Rural Concerns, and illustrate how they map onto electoral results. The findings and the utility of this approach to incorporate new e-petitions and adapt to changes in electoral geography are discussed.

Estimating the outcome of UKs referendum on EU membership using e-petition data and machine learning algorithms

ABSTRACT The United Kingdom’s 2016 referendum on membership of the European Union is perhaps one of the most important recent electoral events in the UK. This political sentiment has confounded pollsters, media commentators and academics alike, and has challenged elected Members of the Westminster Parliament. Unfortunately, for many areas of the UK this referendum outcome is not known for Westminster Parliamentary Constituencies, rather it is known for the coarser geography of counting areas. This study uses novel data and machine learning algorithms to estimate the Leave vote percentage for these constituencies. The results are seen to correlate well with other estimates.

Bevölkerungsprojektionen ethnischer Gruppen in Großbritannien und Nordirland

Viele Industrielander haben in den letzten Jahrzehnten erhebliche Zustrome auslandischer Einwanderer erlebt. Viele dieser Einwanderer haben sich niedergelassen, haben Familienmitglieder nachgeholt oder Einheimische geheiratet und sich so in die Aufnahmegesellschaft integriert. Dies fuhrte zur Entwicklung einer ethnisch diversen Gesellschaft Volkszahlungen geben uns nur einen Ruckblick auf diese Prozesse. Fur eine Sicht nach vorn braucht man Bevolkerungsprojektionen, die auch die ethnische Zugehorigkeit der Bevolkerung berucksichtigen. In diesem Kapitel wird erlautert, wie solche Projektionen fur das Vereinigte Konigreich erstellt wurden. Die Projektionen zeigen, dass die Bevolkerung des Vereinigten Konigreiches nicht nur deutlich wachsen wird und zwar von 59 Millionen in 2001 auf 81.5 Millionen in 2061, sondern dass ethnische Minderheitengruppen ihren Bevolkerungsanteil von 8 % auf 30 % in diesem Zeitraum erhohen werden. Stadte und Ballungsgebiete erfahren zwar die groste Vielfalt an ethnischen Gruppen, das groste Wachstum ethnische Minderheiten findet jedoch auserhalb dieser Zentren statt. Die Gesellschaft des Vereinigten Konigreichs wird durch diese Entwicklung zwar herausgefordert, aber wir glauben, dass sie diesen Ubergang gut verkraftet.

Changing Intensities and Spatial Patterns of Internal Migration in the UK

UK population censuses are an invaluable source of information that helps us to understand the redistribution of the population through internal migration. However, making comparisons between censuses, even those that are taken consecutively, is rarely straightforward. In this chapter, we use origin-destination flow data from the 2011 and 2001 Censuses at district level to illustrate the problems of comparison, generate an adjusted set of flows to enable consistent comparison and establish what changes are evident when using aggregate and age-group indicators of migration intensity and impact. The results suggest that intensities have fallen marginally overall and most significantly in the older age groups whilst changes in the impact of migration are most evident in the 15-19 age group. We use the IMAGE Studio to identify the effects of scale and zonation on three selected migration indicators.

Circular Migration Plots

This chapter applies a new method for visualising a system of migration flows in one easy-to-read graphic that can depict the relative size and direction of migration streams. This approach goes beyond traditional flow maps that are constrained by the geography of regions and nation states. The inspiration for the circular layout was drawn from visualisations of genomic data using a visualization software package called Circos. In our circular migration plots, the sizes of flows in different parts of the UK drawn from the 2011 Census can be directly compared with each other. The static visualisations of inter-regional migration flows are complemented by an interactive visualisation of migration flows at the local and regional levels, disaggregated by age group.

Monitoring and Visualising Sub-national Migration Trends in the United Kingdom

Urban policy makers and service providers need to understand the magnitude and dynamics of population migration to and from towns and cities since both the internal and international components are increasingly important in driving urban demographic development. In this chapter, an information system is outlined with a simple interface that allows migration data alongside data for natural change for selected districts or city regions to be tabulated and visualised so that time series trends and spatial patterns can be identified and compared. The data suggest that, during the 2000s, the major cities in the UK collectively experienced significant population growth, a large increase in net international migration and a decline in the relatively longstanding process of counterurbanisation.