Niklas Everitt

A geometric approach to variance analysis of cascaded systems

Modeling complex and interconnected systems is a key issue in system identification. When estimating individual subsystems of a network of interconnected system, it is of interest to know the improvement of model-accuracy in using different sensors and actuators. In this paper, using a geometric approach, we quantify the accuracy improvement from additional sensors when estimating the first of a set of subsystems connected in a cascade structure. We present results on how the zeros of the first subsystem affect the accuracy of the corresponding model. Additionally we shed some light on how structural properties and experimental conditions determine the accuracy. The results are particularized to FIR systems, for which the results are illustrated by numerical simulations. A surprising special case occurs when the first subsystem contains a zero on the unit circle; as the model orders grows large, the variance of the frequency function estimate, evaluated at the corresponding frequency of the unit-circle zero, is shown to be the same as if the other subsystems were completely known.

Variance Results for Parallel Cascade Serial Systems

Modelling dynamic networks is important in different fields of science. At present, little is known about how different inputs and sensors contribute to the statistical properties concerning an est ...

Variance analysis of linear SIMO models with spatially correlated noise

In this paper we address the identification of linear time-invariant single-input multi-output (SIMO) systems. In particular, we assess the performance of the prediction error method by quantifying ...

Covariance analysis in SISO linear systems identification

In this paper, we analyze the asymptotic covariance of models of causal single-input single-output linear time invariant systems. Expressions for the asymptotic (co)variance of system properties es ...

ARX modeling of unstable linear systems

High-order ARX models can be used to approximate a quite general class of linear systems in a parametric model structure, and well-established methods can then be used to retrieve the true plant and noise models from the ARX polynomials. However, this commonly used approach is only valid when the plant is stable or if the unstable poles are shared with the true noise model. In this contribution, we generalize this approach to allow the unstable poles not to be shared, by introducing modifications to correctly retrieve the noise model and noise variance.

Identification of modules in dynamic networks: An empirical Bayes approach

We address the problem of identifying a specific module in a dynamic network, assuming known topology. We express the dynamics by an acyclic network composed of two blocks where the first block accounts for the relation between the known reference signals and the input to the target module, while the second block contains the target module. Using an empirical Bayes approach, we model the first block as a Gaussian vector with covariance matrix (kernel) given by the recently introduced stable spline kernel. The parameters of the target module are estimated by solving a marginal likelihood problem with a novel iterative scheme based on the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. Numerical experiments illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Open-loop asymptotically efficient model reduction with the Steiglitz–McBride method

In system identification, it is often difficult to use a physical intuition when choosing a noise model structure. The importance of this choice is that, for the prediction error method (PEM) to provide asymptotically efficient estimates, the model orders must be chosen according to the true system. However, if only the plant estimates are of interest and the experiment is performed in open loop, the noise model can be over-parameterized without affecting the asymptotic properties of the plant. The limitation is that, as PEM suffers in general from non-convexity, estimating an unnecessarily large number of parameters will increase the risk of getting trapped in local minima. Here, we consider the following alternative approach. First, estimate a high-order ARX model with least squares, providing non-parametric estimates of the plant and noise model. Second, reduce the high-order model to obtain a parametric model of the plant only. We review existing methods to do this, pointing out limitations and connections between them. Then, we propose a method that connects favorable properties from the previously reviewed approaches. We show that the proposed method provides asymptotically efficient estimates of the plant with open-loop data. Finally, we perform a simulation study suggesting that the proposed method is competitive with state-of-the-art methods.

On the variance analysis of identified linear MIMO models

We study the accuracy of identified linear time-invariant multi-input multi-output (MIMO) systems. Under a stochastic framework, we quantify the effect of the spatial correlation and choice of model structure on the covariance matrix of the transfer function estimates. In particular, it is shown how the variance of a transfer function estimate depends on signal properties and model orders of other modules composing the MIMO system.

An empirical Bayes approach to identification of modules in dynamic networks

We present a new method of identifying a specific module in a dynamic network, possibly with feedback loops. Assuming known topology, we express the dynamics by an acyclic network composed of two blocks where the first block accounts for the relation between the known reference signals and the input to the target module, while the second block contains the target module. Using an empirical Bayes approach, we model the first block as a Gaussian vector with covariance matrix (kernel) given by the recently introduced stable spline kernel. The parameters of the target module are estimated by solving a marginal likelihood problem with a novel iterative scheme based on the Expectation–Maximization algorithm. Additionally, we extend the method to include additional measurements downstream of the target module. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques, it is shown that the same iterative scheme can solve also this formulation. Numerical experiments illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.