Niklas Swanström

China and Central Asia: A New Great Game or Traditional Vassal Relations

Central Asia and China have been closely intertwined in history and today that relationship has begun to re-emerge. This article analyses the reasons for the close cooperation which has re-emerged in the 1990s and boomed in the twenty-first century. Domestic and internal factors, as well as political and economic considerations are included in the search for an explanation for current relations and future expectations. Despite the fact that China has emerged as one of the worlds most powerful states, its dependence on the Central Asian states in regard to oil and gas but also domestic security is intriguing. The future of Sino-Central Asian relations is deeply embedded in joint problems and common interests, but also in fear of domination and external intervention.

The Eurasian Drug Trade A Challenge to Regional Security

The security of Eurasia can no longer be understood in separation from the drug trade. Given the importance of the region to the United States, the adverse effect of the drug trade is also bound to affect U.S. interests in Central Asia.

Sino–Russian Relations at the Start of the New Millennium in Central Asia and Beyond

Sino–Russian relations have swayed considerably in the second millennium. During the Yeltsin era, China–Russia relations were still strong, but this changed abruptly after Putins accession to the presidency in 2000 and his initial pro-Western adventures. This was, in no small part, due to Russias involvement in the war on terror, together with Russias complicity in a US military presence in Central Asia which did not go down well in Beijing. Putins domestic constituency found his swing into Washingtons fold equally awkward, which created no small amount of criticism in Russia. Convinced that things could not get much worse, Putins acceptance of NATOs expansion into the Baltics, his approval of US withdrawal from the ABM-treaty, and his quiet consent for an American military presence in Georgia raised additional fears in the Duma, within Russian public opinion, and to some extent among the Chinese. This was perceived as a direct surrender to American superiority and aggression, and it would not last for long.

Chinese influence on the DPRK negotiations

Despite its isolation, and its social and economic problems, the DPRK continues to disregard negotiations with the U.S. and has, according to the U.S., violated established agreements. Its true that the U.S. policy towards the DPRK has been less than cooperative, which has worried North Koreas Northeast Asian neighbors. Pyongyangs only reliable ally has traditionally been the People Republic of China (PRC), but even the Chinese have recently begun to revaluate the advantages of supporting Pyongyang. The Chinese support is partly born out of the fear of having U.S. troops at the Chinese-Korean border, but also because a DPRK collapse would, apart from a probable war, create huge waves of refugees. The Chinese impact on negotiations has been affected by its ambivalence both toward the DPRK and toward the U.S. military position in the Korean peninsula. The Chinese fear that a U.S. intervention would dissolve the DPRK and create a united Korea controlled by the Americans. There is also a strong concern in Beijing over Pyongyangs interest in developing nuclear weapons. Apart from the inherent dangers of Kim Jong-Il being armed with such weapons, his acquisition of them would undoubtedly lead to a popular demand in Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) to acquire nuclear capabilities, something that would further threaten regional security. This ambivalence, in combination with the potentially severe economic and political consequences of war and refugee flows, makes the Chinese an uncomfortable ally of Pyongyang. Beijing has been accused by the West of pressuring Pyongyang to take a hard position against the United States, rather than encouraging cooperation. On the other hand Beijing has also been a positive force in urging the North Koreans to communicate with the United States. Thus, its worth examining what role and impact the PRC has had to date in the negotiations with DPRK, and what role it may play in the future.