Niko Leikola

Forest industry and the environment: a life cycle assessment study from Finland

Abstract Management of forest resources and related industries has a significant effect on the Finnish environment. Therefore there was an obvious need for a study to assess environmental impacts and to identify needs and options for environmental improvements in the forest sector. It was against this background that the Finnish Environment Institute carried out a life cycle assessment (LCA) of the Finnish forest industry. This application included methodological innovations compared with the traditional product-related LCA because it was a study of the whole production system of the mechanical and chemical forest industry. Areas for improvement of environmental protection in the forest sector for the year 2005 were identified on the basis of the inventory (emissions, wastes, etc.), environmental impact assessment and other available data. During the study a new impact assessment procedure was developed in order to assess more actual impacts of country-specific systems. Although the prioritized factors found were not strongly ranked against each other it can be concluded that maintaining biodiversity in the context of forestry practices and increasing the efficiency of energy use are the key issues in the environmental protection of the forest sector. Before detailed ranking of emissions and other stressors can be produced there is a need for more reliable stressor data, better understanding of stressor–effect relationships and more consensus on the importance of different environmental problems. Despite the limitations and needs for further development, the presented LCA approach can be regarded as a useful tool for providing a deeper understanding of the key issues in the environmental protection of a whole production system.

Climate change, northern birds of conservation concern and matching the hotspots of habitat suitability with the reserve network.

National reserve networks are one of the most important means of species conservation, but their efficiency may be diminished due to the projected climatic changes. Using bioclimatic envelope models and spatial data on habitats and conservation areas, we studied how efficient the reserve network will be in preserving 100 forest, mire, marshland, and alpine bird species of conservation concern in Finland in 2051–2080 under three different climate scenarios. The occurrences of the studied bird species were related to the amount of habitat preferred by each species in the different boreal zones. We employed a novel integrated habitat suitability index that takes into account both the species’ probability of occurrence from the bioclimatic models and the availability of suitable habitat. Using this suitability index, the distribution of the topmost 5% suitability squares (“hotspots”) in the four bird species groups in the period 1971–2000 and under the three scenarios were compared with the location of reserves with the highest amounts of the four habitats to study the efficiency of the network. In species of mires, marshlands, and Arctic mountains, a high proportion of protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots in the scenarios in 2051–2080, showing that protected areas cover a high proportion of occurrences of bird species. In contrast, in forests in the southern and middle boreal zones, only a small proportion of the protected habitat was included in the 5% hotspots, indicating that the efficiency of the protected area network will be insufficient for forest birds in the future. In the northern boreal zone, the efficiency of the reserve network in forests was highly dependent on the strength of climate change varying between the scenarios. Overall, there is no single solution to preserving biodiversity in a changing climate, but several future pathways should be considered.

Does the protected area network preserve bird species of conservation concern in a rapidly changing climate

Species ranges are expected to move polewards following the changing climate, which poses novel challenges to the protected area network, particularly at northern latitudes. Here we study how well protected areas are likely to sustain populations of birds of conservation concern under a changing climate in northern Europe, in Finland. We fitted bioclimatic envelope models generated for 100 bird species to climate scenario data for the years 2051–2080 and three alternative emission scenarios in a 10-km grid system to predict changes in the species probability of occurrence. We related the projected changes in the climatic suitability to the amount of protected preferred habitat for the study species in the 10-km grid cells, and based on the cover of four main CORINE Land Cover classes in each conservation area in Finland. The probability of occurrence of all species (except marshland birds) decreased according to all scenarios, the decline being greatest in southern and smallest in northern boreal zones. This decline was slightly greater in unprotected than in protected areas for species of forests, mires and mountain habitats. The climatically suitable areas for the species were predicted to shift northwards, but the potential gain of southern species of conservation concern appears not to compensate for the loss of northern species. Thus, a representative protected area network is needed in all boreal zones. Overall, our results show that species-specific habitat preferences and habitat availability should be taken into account when assessing the efficiency of a protected area network in a changing climate.

Impacts of land cover data selection and trait parameterisation on dynamic modelling of species' range expansion.

Dynamic models for range expansion provide a promising tool for assessing species’ capacity to respond to climate change by shifting their ranges to new areas. However, these models include a number of uncertainties which may affect how successfully they can be applied to climate change oriented conservation planning. We used RangeShifter, a novel dynamic and individual-based modelling platform, to study two potential sources of such uncertainties: the selection of land cover data and the parameterization of key life-history traits. As an example, we modelled the range expansion dynamics of two butterfly species, one habitat specialist (Maniola jurtina) and one generalist (Issoria lathonia). Our results show that projections of total population size, number of occupied grid cells and the mean maximal latitudinal range shift were all clearly dependent on the choice made between using CORINE land cover data vs. using more detailed grassland data from three alternative national databases. Range expansion was also sensitive to the parameterization of the four considered life-history traits (magnitude and probability of long-distance dispersal events, population growth rate and carrying capacity), with carrying capacity and magnitude of long-distance dispersal showing the strongest effect. Our results highlight the sensitivity of dynamic species population models to the selection of existing land cover data and to uncertainty in the model parameters and indicate that these need to be carefully evaluated before the models are applied to conservation planning.

Conservation of grassland butterflies in Finland under a changing climate

Abstract This paper examines the potential impact of climate change on grassland butterfly species in Finland. It combines multiple climate change scenarios and different impact models for bioclimatic suitability to capture multi-faceted aspects of uncertainty. It also evaluates alternative options to enhance the adaptation of grassland biodiversity. Due to the long-term decline of semi-natural grasslands, their current extent in Finland is much lower than the minimum level estimated to ensure the survival of butterfly species. Projected locations of the climatically most suitable areas for butterfly species varied considerably between different modelling techniques and climate change scenarios. This uncertainty needs to be taken into account in planning adaptation responses. Analysis of potential adaptation options considered the promotion of existing measures based on the agri-environmental scheme (AES), as well as new measures, including species translocation and dispersal corridors. Current AES options were compared using a cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The CEA results indicated that buffer zones are the most cost-effective AES measure, although environmental fallows and buffer zones had broadly similar cost-effectiveness. The cost of translocation was relatively modest compared to that of dispersal corridors, due to the high number of habitat stepping stones required along potential dispersal corridors. A questionnaire survey of Finnish farmers revealed that a third of the respondents supported increases in nature conservation. Thus, large increases of the uptake of biodiversity-related AES measures among farmers may prove to be difficult. Given the small areas currently assigned for such measures, the prospects for the adaptation of grassland butterflies to climate change in Finland appear unfavourable.

High cover of forest increases the abundance of most grassland butterflies in boreal farmland

High cover of forest in the landscape matrix has been shown to weaken the negative effects of habitat fragmentation on grassland butterflies. No studies have however focused on examining species‐specific responses of grassland butterflies to forest. The data from 3 years of butterfly monitoring in Southern Finland were used to test whether the amount of forest cover in the surrounding landscape affected the abundance of grassland butterfly species in semi‐natural grasslands, field margins, and forest edges. More than half of the studied species benefitted from high cover of forest. Species with the strongest preference for forested landscapes were Lycaena virgaureae, Argynnis adippe, Argynnis aglaja, and Boloria selene, which probably find suitable resources in herbaceous habitats at forest edges and clearings. Several small‐sized species were positively affected by surrounding forest cover in field margins but not in the other habitat types. Although field margins are suboptimal habitats for grassland butterflies, they provide important corridors for dispersal. High cover of forest in the landscape matrix may enhance butterfly dispersal along field margins by reducing windiness, which is likely to be most important for small‐sized species with poor dispersal capacity. The most abundant grassland species showed little or no preference for forested landscapes. Our results suggest that high cover of forest enhances the persistence of most grassland butterflies, including declining species, in boreal agricultural landscapes. The responses to forest are however strongly dependent on species‐specific properties and habitat types.

Significance of Protected Area Network in Preserving Biodiversity in a Changing Northern European Climate

Climate change is a major threat to biodiversity, causing species to move to new climatically suitable areas, and thus increasing the extinction probability of species inhabiting fragmented landscapes. This highlights the need for climate-wise conservation strategies. With such strategies, a well-connected network of protected areas (PAs) is one of the most important means to support species survival. An extensive and representative PA network can enhance the resilience of regional populations of species, resulting in slower species loss in landscapes with a significant proportion of area of habitat being protected. This paper presents analyses of both the observed (1974–2010) and the predicted changes (by 2051–2080) in boreal bird populations in Finland. Firstly, the results show some general patterns of climate change on bird species: (1) species are shifting their ranges towards north, (2) range sizes of many species are declining, and (3) these changes are different in northern and southern species and in species occupying different habitats. Secondly, the paper looks more into the role of protected area (PA) network in securing birds in a changing climate and concludes that at least in Finland, open habitats, such as open mires and mountain heaths, change more rapidly in their species composition in protected areas than for example old-growth forests. However, generally, species decline less within than outside PAs showing that protected areas alleviate climate change effects on bird species of conservation concern. This finding, further supported by results from elsewhere in Europe, provides evidence for the resilience of PA networks in preserving species under climate change. Representative PA network that includes high cover for key habitats is hence needed in all latitudinal zones. The projected efficiency of the PA network in maintaining biodiversity was partly dependent on the strength of climate change varying with respect to future scenarios. This suggests that a flexibly adaptive climate-wise conservation planning is required to be better prepared for preserving biodiversity in the face of uncertain climate change. Thirdly, the paper discusses several aspects of climate change studies and avian biodiversity that have been hitherto understudied especially in the northern biomes. The paper suggests that future studies should concentrate on (1) abundance-based models and prioritisations, (2) species’ adaptive capacity (ability to avoid the impacts of climate change through dispersal and/or evolutionary change) and sensitivity (limited potential to persist in situ under changing climate) to climate change, (3) the role of the landscape matrix around the PAs and (4) the effects of the biogeophysical features of the PAs themselves. In conclusion, we envision that improved assessments regarding the ability of PA networks to maintain biodiversity in northern biomes are needed to enhance our ability to perform climate-wise conservation planning.