Nikolai Miloshev

Grid computing for atmospheric composition studies in Bulgaria

Three Grid applications from the SEE-GRID-SCI Environmental VO are developed by the Bulgarian project team: Climate Change Impact on Air Quality (CCIAQ); Multi-scale atmospheric composition modeling (MSACM); Modeling System for Emergency Response to the Release of Harmful Substances in the Atmosphere (MSERRHSA). The three applications concern problems of significant socio-economic significance. They are all dedicated to air pollution studies, but address different goals and so face different problems and requirements. The applications are briefly presented in the paper. Examples of the different applications validations are given. Some application results are shown and commented.

Study of the pollution exchange between Bulgaria and northern Greece

The present work aims at a detailed study and explanation of the pollution transport in the air basin over south-western Bulgaria and northern Greece and assessment of the air pollution exchange between Bulgaria and Greece. Some well-known specific climatic air pollution effects were studied and explained. Calculations were made of the SO2 pollution of the Balkan Peninsula from both Greek and Bulgarian sources for 1995, and the country-to-country pollution budget diagrams were built. Days with extreme mean concentration for Bulgaria and northern Greece were picked out, and some further specification of the contribution of the different sources in both the countries to these cases of extreme pollution was made. Some preliminary studies of possible mesoscale effects on the pollution exchange between Bulgaria and northern Greece were carried out. A three-layer pollution transport model with a more complex chemistry block was introduced, and some preliminary simulations of the transport of sulfur and nitrogen...

Multi-scale Atmospheric Composition Modelling for Bulgaria

The present work aims to studying the local to regional atmospheric pollution transport and transformation processes over Bulgaria and to tracking and characterizing the main pathways and processes that lead to atmospheric composition formation in the region. The US EPA Models-3 system is chosen as a modelling tool. As the NCEP Global Analysis Data with 1° resolution is used as meteorological background, the MM5 and CMAQ nesting capabilities are applied for downscaling the simulations to a 9 km resolution over Balkans and 3 km over Bulgaria. The TNO emission inventory is used as emission input. Special pre-processing procedures are created for introducing temporal profiles and speciation of the emissions. The study is based on a large number of numerical simulations carried out to four emission scenarios – with all the emissions and with excluded biogenic emissions, emissions from energetics and road transport. Some results from the numerical simulations concerning the main features of the atmospheric composition in Bulgaria and the contribution of the different emission categories are demonstrated in the paper.

Fine Resolution Modeling of Climate Change Impact on Future Air Quality Over BULGARIA

A meteorological database of high resolution (∼10 km) climate modeling results for three time slices – 1960–2000 (Control Run, CR), 2020–2050 (Near Future, NF) and 2070–2100 (Far Future, FF), produced by ALADIN-Climate model following the IPCC scenario A1B, future concentrations of many air pollutants are estimated. The dispersion calculations are made basically by US EPA Models-3 system (MM5, CMAQ, SMOKE). The mean concentrations of four main polluters (ozone ADM, SO2, NO2 and PM10) for the last 10 years of each time slice are calculated. The changes in pollution levels are presented and commented.

Bulgarian Emergency Response System for Release of Hazardous Pollutants – Design and First Tests

The present paper demonstrates some preliminary results of the set up and testing of a system for modelling of toxic air pollution due to possible accidents in industrial sites. Risk assessment for the region of “Vereya Him” factory, Yambol, Bulgaria is performed. The modelling tools used for this study are: WRF, CMAQ and SMOKE. The CB05 toxic chemical mechanism, including chlorine reactions, is used. The shown numerical results demonstrate the practical value of the preparedness mode of the planned emergency response system.

Numerical study of some high PM10 level episodes

The study examines the ability of US EPA Models-3 system to reproduce air pollution episodes and to evaluate the role of different processes in the PM10 pattern formation. The case study focuses on three major PM10 episodes, that occurred over Germany in February and March of 2003. The emission input is prepared on the basis of the TNO inventory. The simulated PM10 concentrations are compared with measurements from the EMEP stations in Germany. The Integrated Process Rate Analysis function of CMAQ is applied for clarifying the role of different processes in forming PM10 concentration peaks.

A system for assessment of climatic air pollution levels in Bulgaria: description and first steps towards validation

The EC FP6 project CECILIA (http://www.cecilia-eu.org) aims at climate change impacts and vulnerability assessment in targeted areas of Central and Eastern Europe. Emphasis is given to regional climate change modeling at resolution of 10 km. The respective weather patterns influence local air quality. For its assessment EPA Models-3 (MM5, CMAQ, SMOKE) is used. The meteorological input is produced by the climatic version of ALADIN weather forecast system. TNO emission inventory for 2000 is exploited. The boundary conditions are extracted from 50-km runs over Europe made in Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece. Calculations for the period 1991–2000 are performed, results presented.

Joint analysis of regional scale transport and transformation of air pollution from road and ship transport

The objective of the present work is to study in detail the dilution processes of the plumes and the chemical transformations of pollutants jointly generated by road and ship transport. The numerical simulations are carried out using the MODELS-3 system (SMOKE/ MM5/CMAQ) nesting abilities, downscaling to a horizontal resolution of 30 km, the innermost domain including regions with very intensive road and ship transport and different climate (photochemistry reactions intensity) The CMAQ “Process rate analysis” option is applied to discriminate the role of different dynamic and chemical processes to the pollution levels formation. A large number of numerical experiments were carried out, which makes it possible to distinguish the relative contribution of different air pollution factors Careful and detailed analysis of the obtained results was made, outlining the influence of the domain specific physiographic characteristics, road and ship emission impacts on the pollution characteristics.

Background pollution forecast over bulgaria

Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal Air Quality behaviour for the country and (with higher resolution) for selected sub-regions and cities on the base of the weather forecast and national emission inventory. The country-scale part of the system is designed It is based on the US EPA Models-3 System The meteorological input is the ALADIN output, ALADIN being the national numerical weather forecast tool The boundary conditions are prepared by a similar system running operationally in Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece (AUTH) Special interface is created to retrieve in real time the AUTH-system forecasts producing boundary files uploaded to dedicated server in Bulgaria. In the paper, detailed description of the System will be given together with first results of its testing.

Air Flows and Pollution Transport in the Sofia Valley Under Some Typical Background Conditions

The present study demonstrates some specific characteristics of the local flow system and pollution transport in the region of Sofia valley. The city of Sofia is situated in the bottom of a deep valley between high surrounding mountains. The study of topography induced mesoscale effects is interesting itself and this, together with the great social and economic importance of the region, is the motivation for this work.