Georgi Jordanov

Simulation of the 2009 harmanli fire (bulgaria)

We use a coupled atmosphere-fire model to simulate a fire that occurred on August 14---17, 2009, in the Harmanli region, Bulgaria. Data was obtained from GIS and satellites imagery, and from standard atmospheric data sources. Fuel data was classified in the 13 Anderson categories. For correct fire behavior, the spatial resolution of the models needed to be fine enough to resolve the essential micrometeorological effects. The simulation results are compared to available incident data. The code runs faster than real time on a cluster. The model is available from openwfm.org and it extends WRF-Fire from WRF 3.3 release.

WRF-fire applied in Bulgaria

WRF-Fire consists of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) coupled with a fire spread model, based on the level-set method. We describe a preliminary application of WRF-Fire to a forest fire in Bulgaria, oportunities for research of forest fire models for Bulgaria, and plans for the development of an Environmental Decision Support Systems which includes computational modeling of fire behavior.

Climate change impact assessment of air pollution levels in bulgaria

The presented work is aiming at climate change impacts and vulnerability assessment in Bulgaria Climate change may affect exposures to air pollutants by affecting weather and thereby local and regional pollution concentrations Local weather patterns influence atmospheric chemical reactions and can also affect atmospheric transport and deposition processes. US EPA Models-3 System for a region with resolution of 10 km covering Bulgaria is exploited here The meteorological background is produced by the climatic version of ALADIN weather forecast system TNO emission inventory for 2000 is used The chemical boundary conditions are extracted from 50-km resolution runs over Europe made in Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece Calculations for the period 1991-2000 are performed, results presented in a study For year 2000, some scenarios are run, results compared with measured data.

Numerical study of some high PM10 level episodes

The study examines the ability of US EPA Models-3 system to reproduce air pollution episodes and to evaluate the role of different processes in the PM10 pattern formation. The case study focuses on three major PM10 episodes, that occurred over Germany in February and March of 2003. The emission input is prepared on the basis of the TNO inventory. The simulated PM10 concentrations are compared with measurements from the EMEP stations in Germany. The Integrated Process Rate Analysis function of CMAQ is applied for clarifying the role of different processes in forming PM10 concentration peaks.

Joint analysis of regional scale transport and transformation of air pollution from road and ship transport

The objective of the present work is to study in detail the dilution processes of the plumes and the chemical transformations of pollutants jointly generated by road and ship transport. The numerical simulations are carried out using the MODELS-3 system (SMOKE/ MM5/CMAQ) nesting abilities, downscaling to a horizontal resolution of 30 km, the innermost domain including regions with very intensive road and ship transport and different climate (photochemistry reactions intensity) The CMAQ “Process rate analysis” option is applied to discriminate the role of different dynamic and chemical processes to the pollution levels formation. A large number of numerical experiments were carried out, which makes it possible to distinguish the relative contribution of different air pollution factors Careful and detailed analysis of the obtained results was made, outlining the influence of the domain specific physiographic characteristics, road and ship emission impacts on the pollution characteristics.

Background pollution forecast over bulgaria

Both, the current level of air pollution studies and social needs in the country, are in a stage mature enough for creating Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information System The system is foreseen to provide in real time forecast of the spatial/temporal Air Quality behaviour for the country and (with higher resolution) for selected sub-regions and cities on the base of the weather forecast and national emission inventory. The country-scale part of the system is designed It is based on the US EPA Models-3 System The meteorological input is the ALADIN output, ALADIN being the national numerical weather forecast tool The boundary conditions are prepared by a similar system running operationally in Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece (AUTH) Special interface is created to retrieve in real time the AUTH-system forecasts producing boundary files uploaded to dedicated server in Bulgaria. In the paper, detailed description of the System will be given together with first results of its testing.

Numerical study of some high PM10 levels episodes

The study aims at examining the ability and the limitations of US EPA Models 3 system to adequately reproduce air pollution episodes and to evaluate the role of different processes in the PM10 pattern formation The case study focuses on the meteorological situation in Germany in February and March of 2003 during which three major PM10 episodes could be identified. The simulated meteorological fields agree well with the patterns described in the case study definition The simulated PM10 concentrations are compared with measurements from the EMEP stations in Germany The Integrated Process Rate Analysis function of CMAQ is applied for clarifying the role of different processes of transport and transformation in forming PM10 concentration peaks.