Nina Burkardt

Coping with earthquakes induced by fluid injection

Hazard may be reduced by managing injection activities Large areas of the United States long considered geologically stable with little or no detected seismicity have recently become seismically active. The increase in earthquake activity began in the mid-continent starting in 2001 (1) and has continued to rise. In 2014, the rate of occurrence of earthquakes with magnitudes (M) of 3 and greater in Oklahoma exceeded that in California (see the figure). This elevated activity includes larger earthquakes, several with M > 5, that have caused significant damage (2, 3). To a large extent, the increasing rate of earthquakes in the mid-continent is due to fluid-injection activities used in modern energy production (1, 4, 5). We explore potential avenues for mitigating effects of induced seismicity. Although the United States is our focus here, Canada, China, the UK, and others confront similar problems associated with oil and gas production, whereas quakes induced by geothermal activities affect Switzerland, Germany, and others.

The Hurricane-flood-landslide continuum

In August 2004, representatives from NOAA, NASA, the USGS, and other government agencies convened in San Juan, Puerto Rim for a workshop to discuss a proposed research project called the Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum (HFLC). The essence of the HFLC is to develop and integrate tools across disciplines to enable the issuance of regional guidance products for floods and landslides associated with major tropical rain systems, with sufficient lead time that local emergency managers can protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure. All three lead agencies are independently developing precipitation-flood-debris flow forecasting technologies, and all have a history of work on natural hazards both domestically and overseas. NOM has the capability to provide tracking and prediction of storm rainfall, trajectory and landfall and is developing flood probability and magnTtude capabilities. The USGS has the capability to evaluate the ambient stability of natural and man-made landforms, to assess landslide susceptibilities for those landforms, and to establish probabilities for initiation of landslides and debris flows. Additionally, the USGS has well-developed operational capacity for real-time monitoring and reporting of streamflow across distributed networks of automated gaging stations (http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/). NASA has the capability to provide sophisticated algorithms for satellite remote sensing of precipitation, land use, and in the future, soil moisture. The Workshop sought to initiate discussion among three agencies regarding their specific and highly complimentary capabilities. The fundamental goal of the Workshop was to establish a framework that will leverage the strengths of each agency. Once a prototype system is developed for example, in relatively data-rich Puerto Rim, it could be adapted for use in data-poor, low-infrastructure regions such as the Dominican Republic or Haiti. This paper provides an overview of the Workshop s goals, presentations and recommendations with respect to the development of the HFLC.

A policy model to initiate environmental negotiations: Three hydropower workshops

Abstract How do I get started in natural resource negotiations? Natural resource managers often face difficult negotiations when they implement laws and policies regulating such resources as water, wildlife, wetlands, endangered species, and recreation. As a result of these negotiations, managers must establish rules, grant permits, or create management plans. The Legal‐Institutional Analysis Model (LIAM) was designed to assist managers in systematically analyzing the parties in natural resource negotiations and using that analysis to prepare for bargaining. The LIAM relies on the theory that organizations consistently employ behavioral roles. The model uses those roles to predict likely negotiation behavior. One practical use of the LIAM is when all parties to a negotiation conduct a workshop as a way to open the bargaining on a note of trust and mutual understanding. The process and results of three LIAM workshops designed to guide hydroelectric power licensing negotiations are presented. Our experience...

Using Role Analysis to Plan for Stakeholder Involvement: A Wyoming Case Study

Abstract Prior to implementing laws and policies regulating water, wildlife, wetlands, endangered species, and recreation, natural resource managers often solicit public input. Concomitantly, managers are continually seeking more effective ways to involve stakeholders. In the autumn of 1999, the Wyoming Game and Fish Department sought to develop a state management plan for its portion of the Yellowstone grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) population if it was removed from the federal threatened species list. A key aspect of developing this plan was the involvement of federal, state, and local agencies, representatives from nongovernmental organizations, and citizens. Wyoming wildlife managers asked researchers from the United States Geological Survey to demonstrate how the Legal-Institutional Analysis Model could be used to initiate this process. To address these needs, we conducted similar workshops for a group of state and federal managers or staffers and a broad group of stakeholders. Although we found similarities among the workshop groups, we also recorded differences in perspective between stakeholder groups. The managers group acknowledged the importance of varied stakeholders but viewed the grizzly bear planning process as one centered on state interests, influenced by state policies, and amenable to negotiation. The other workshops identified many stakeholders and viewed the decision process as diffuse, with many opportunities for entry into the process. These latter groups were less certain about the chance for a successful negotiation. We concluded that if these assumptions and differences were not reconciled, the public involvement effort was not likely to succeed.

The importance of defining technical issues in interagency environmental negotiations

The role of technical clarity in successful multiparty negotiations was studied. Investigations involved in-depth interviews with the principal participants in six consultations conducted under the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s hydroelectric power project licensing procedures. Technical clarity was especially important in these cases because they concerned science-based questions. The principal issues in the six cases were fish passage, instream flow for fish habitat, and entrainment of fish in hydropower turbines. It was concluded that technical clarity was one of the most critical elements in resolving these conflicts. In the least successful negotiations, parties failed to address the basic values of the dispute before plunging into technical studies. The results of those studies usually highlighted the potential for negative outcomes and increased polarization between the participants. In the most successful negotiations, the various parties shared an understanding of each of their basic values. These shared understandings led to technical studies that cast the negotiation in a positive light and illuminated possible solutions.

Pigs on the Plains: Institutional Analysis of a Colorado Water Quality Initiative

Abstract We used the Legal-Institutional Analysis Model (LIAM) and Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) to analyze the campaign over passage of the Colorado Hogs Rule, an initiative passed by the voters in 1998 to require regulation of swine production facilities in Colorado. Used in tandem, LIAM and ACF provided an opportunity to develop a robust understanding of the obstacles and opportunities that face water quality managers in a state-centered multi-organizational decision process. We found that combining the LIAM with the ACF enhanced the understanding that could be achieved by using either model in isolation. The predictive capacity of the LIAM would have been reduced without information from the ACF, and the ACF by itself would have missed the importance of a single-case study.

The effects of urgency to reach agreement on the process and outcome of multi-party natural resource negotiations

We studied seven hydropower license consultations to examine the role of a sense of urgency to reach agreement. Hydropower licensing consultations were studied because the statutory requirement for consultation encourages negotiation, all such consultations are similar, and a negotiated settlement is not a foregone result. Cases selected for analysis met screening criteria. Structured interviews were conducted with participants after the negotiations had been concluded. Respondent recollections were checked against the documentary record. A sense of urgency to reach agreement was a significant factor in the completion of these negotiations; where there was no shared sense of urgency, purposeful delay adversely affected the negotiations. Although a sense of urgency was experienced by at least one party in each case, only a shared sense of urgency at the end of the process proved significant. Delay did not prevent ultimate agreement but a shared sense of urgency brought speedier agreement and greater satisfaction with the negotiation.

The Depression Dilemmas of Rural Iowa, 1929–1932, Lisa L. Ossian. University of Missouri Press, Columbia, Missouri (2011), 237 pages

The Eighth Annual Gather ‘Round the Table Discussion of the Rural Studies of the Western Social Science Association considered The Depression Dilemmas of Rural Iowa, 1929–1932 by Lisa L. Ossian. In Depression Dilemmas, Ossian takes a second look at the era known as the Great Depression. The Depression, when seen in rural Iowa and through everyday lived experiences, was complicated by much deeper and older socio-economic dilemmas, and it was a time of great lows and highs in the human spirit. Cast commonly as the aftermath of the 1929 stock market crash and as a slide into collective despair, the Depression was actually different in nature and origin according to Ossian. The down spirit of the times dated back a decade earlier and extended to many areas of life, and most rural Iowans who lived in this period did not separate their experiences into a preand a post-crash life. With the chronology of the Depression in Iowa back-dated to include the 1920s, fundamental underlying issues in Iowa prior to and after the post-1929 economic collapse become apparent. Social and economic trends created uncertainty and hardship for a decade, and Iowa carried contradictions and conflicts into 1929 and until they came to the fore in the 1930s. Iowans responded how they could, falling back often only on simplicity and grit, and experiencing both deep joy and grief. The Depression was a troubled time that brought out resolve, but neither resolve nor prosperity could put right the times. In the Introduction, Ossian situates the Depression in the conditions, trends, and unresolved issues that carried over from the 1920s. The Depression in Iowa was not a sudden calamity that befell Iowa after 1929. Instead, the global recession was a further slide for a population that had been drifting, struggling, and reeling for a decade. In the new post-war world, Iowa was in the midst of technological and social transformation. For farmers and other Iowans, to follow the times and popular trends was to embrace the uncertain and unsure, and yet the old ways provided no safe retreat. Even with its favored son, Herbert Hoover, in office, the agricultural state fared below average, and many disturbing episodes raised questions about the times. Ossian asks, “Who could succeed in this