Gerald F. Wieczorek

Real-Time Landslide Warning During Heavy Rainfall

A real-time system for issuing warnings of landslides during major storms is being developed for the San Francisco Bay region, California. The system is based on empirical and theoretical relations between rainfall and landslide initiation, geologic determination of areas susceptible to landslides, real-time monitoring of a regional network of telemetering rain gages, and National Weather Service precipitation forecasts. This system was used to issue warnings during the storms of 12 to 21 February 1986, which produced 800 millimeters of rainfall in the region. Although analysis after the storms suggests that modifications and additional development are needed, the system successfully predicted the times of major landslide events. It could be used as a prototype for systems in other landslide-prone regions.

Triggering mechanisms and depositional rates of postglacial slope-movement processes in the Yosemite Valley, California

Abstract We examined information collected from 395 reports of slope-movement events during about the past 150 years in Yosemite National Park, central Sierra Nevada, California, to identify the most prevalent types of slope movements and their triggering mechanisms. Rock slides and rock falls have been more numerous than debris slides, debris flows, and miscellaneous slumps. Rock falls have produced the largest cumulative volume of deposits. About half of slope movements had unreported or unrecognized triggering events. Earthquakes and rain storms individually accounted for the greatest cumulative volumes of deposits from recognized triggers of all types of historical slope movements; snowmelt, human activities and freeze-thaw conditions accounted for only a small proportion of the volumes from reported triggers. A comparison of the historical and postglacial average annual rates of deposition from slope-movement processes in a portion of the Yosemite Valley indicates that, during the period 1851–1992, slope-movement processes have been producing about half the average rate of deposits than during the past 15,000 years.

Unusual July 10, 1996, rock fall at Happy Isles, Yosemite National Park, California

Effects of the July 10, 1996, rock fall at Happy Isles in Yosemite National Park, California, were unusual compared to most rock falls. Two main rock masses fell about 14 s apart from a 665-m-high cliff southeast of Glacier Point onto a talus slope above Happy Isles in the eastern part of Yosemite Valley. The two impacts were recorded by seismographs as much as 200 km away. Although the impact area of the rock falls was not particularly large, the falls generated an airblast and an abrasive dense sandy cloud that devastated a larger area downslope of the impact sites toward the Happy Isles Nature Center. Immediately downslope of the impacts, the airblast had velocities exceeding 110 m/s and toppled or snapped about 1000 trees. Even at distances of 0.5 km from impact, wind velocities snapped or toppled large trees, causing one fatality and several serious injuries beyond the Happy Isles Nature Center. A dense sandy cloud trailed the airblast and abraded fallen trunks and trees left standing. The Happy Isles rock fall is one of the few known worldwide to have generated an airblast and abrasive dense sandy cloud. The relatively high velocity of the rock fall at impact, estimated to be 110–120 m/s, influenced the severity and areal extent of the airblast at Happy Isles. Specific geologic and topographic conditions, typical of steep glaciated valleys and mountainous terrain, contributed to the rock-fall release and determined its travel path, resulting in a high velocity at impact that generated the devastating airblast and sandy cloud. The unusual effects of this rock fall emphasize the importance of considering collateral geologic hazards, such as airblasts from rock falls, in hazard assessment and planning development of mountainous areas.

The Hurricane-flood-landslide continuum

In August 2004, representatives from NOAA, NASA, the USGS, and other government agencies convened in San Juan, Puerto Rim for a workshop to discuss a proposed research project called the Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum (HFLC). The essence of the HFLC is to develop and integrate tools across disciplines to enable the issuance of regional guidance products for floods and landslides associated with major tropical rain systems, with sufficient lead time that local emergency managers can protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure. All three lead agencies are independently developing precipitation-flood-debris flow forecasting technologies, and all have a history of work on natural hazards both domestically and overseas. NOM has the capability to provide tracking and prediction of storm rainfall, trajectory and landfall and is developing flood probability and magnTtude capabilities. The USGS has the capability to evaluate the ambient stability of natural and man-made landforms, to assess landslide susceptibilities for those landforms, and to establish probabilities for initiation of landslides and debris flows. Additionally, the USGS has well-developed operational capacity for real-time monitoring and reporting of streamflow across distributed networks of automated gaging stations (http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/). NASA has the capability to provide sophisticated algorithms for satellite remote sensing of precipitation, land use, and in the future, soil moisture. The Workshop sought to initiate discussion among three agencies regarding their specific and highly complimentary capabilities. The fundamental goal of the Workshop was to establish a framework that will leverage the strengths of each agency. Once a prototype system is developed for example, in relatively data-rich Puerto Rim, it could be adapted for use in data-poor, low-infrastructure regions such as the Dominican Republic or Haiti. This paper provides an overview of the Workshop s goals, presentations and recommendations with respect to the development of the HFLC.

Transient Hazard Model Using Radar Data for Predicting Debris Flows in Madison County, Virginia

During the rainstorm of June 27, 1995, roughly 330–750 mm of rain fell within a 16-hour period, initiating floods and over 600 debris flows in a small area (130 km 2 ) of Madison County, VA. We developed a distributed version of Iverson9s transient response model for regional slope stability analysis for the Madison County debris flows. This version of the model evaluates pore-pressure head response and factor of safety on a regional scale in areas prone to rainfall-induced shallow (

Venezuelan debris flow and flash flood disaster of 1999 studied

Alluvial fans in urban and rural areas are sites of episodic, rainfall-induced natural hazards [Garner 1959; Campbell, 1975; Wieczorek et al., 2001]. Debris flows, hyper-concentrated flows, and flash floods that occur episodically in these alluvial fan environments place many communities at high risk during intense and prolonged rainfall. Although scientists have become better able to define areas of high natural hazard, population expansion and development pressures in such areas have put more people at risk than ever before. Recognition of the magnitude and distribution of debris-flow and flash-flood hazards is therefore a critically important area of natural hazard research.