Nina Dobrinkova

Simulation of the 2009 harmanli fire (bulgaria)

We use a coupled atmosphere-fire model to simulate a fire that occurred on August 14---17, 2009, in the Harmanli region, Bulgaria. Data was obtained from GIS and satellites imagery, and from standard atmospheric data sources. Fuel data was classified in the 13 Anderson categories. For correct fire behavior, the spatial resolution of the models needed to be fine enough to resolve the essential micrometeorological effects. The simulation results are compared to available incident data. The code runs faster than real time on a cluster. The model is available from openwfm.org and it extends WRF-Fire from WRF 3.3 release.

WRF-fire applied in Bulgaria

WRF-Fire consists of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) coupled with a fire spread model, based on the level-set method. We describe a preliminary application of WRF-Fire to a forest fire in Bulgaria, oportunities for research of forest fire models for Bulgaria, and plans for the development of an Environmental Decision Support Systems which includes computational modeling of fire behavior.

Game-Method model for field fires

Every year about 45000 forest fires occur in Europe, burning half a million hectares of land, some of which protected zones with rare species of the flora and fauna The existing methods for wildland modeling are very complicated and their realizations need a lot of computational capacity That is why we will use another approach based on the game-method theory, which consume less computational resources.

FARSITE and WRF-Fire Models, Pros and Cons for Bulgarian Cases

Statistics for the southern memeber states in EU from 2007 show increasement of occurence of wildland fires for the last 25 years. This is true also for Bulgaria. That is the reason a team from Bulgarian Academy of Sciences to start experimenting with different type models for fire spread prediction. The models which have been applied in Bulgaria in the last years for fire behaviour modelling range from typical mathematical approaches such as cell automata ones to the semi-empirical models like WRF-Fire (Weather Research Forecast - Fire) and FARSITE (Fire Area Simulator Model). Our article will focus on the last two models where GIS tools are applied for territories in south Bulgaria and we will show comparison between the time needed for calculation of burned area. We will focus on places for which the needed input data for both models is available and we will conclude with comparison between the models in case either one is used in operational mode from fire fighter brigades.

Wildfire Optimizations in Modeling and Calibrations for Bulgarian Test Cases

In this article we are going to present the optimizations that has been done through different types of models applied on wildland fires for Bulgarian test cases. We will present approaches where meteorological data along with terrain specific relief and vegetation coverage are modeled in a way to present credible scenarios for wildland propagation used for calibration purposes of the different cases. This work aims to prove that the used modeling tools can be used as decision support mechanism for the responsible authorities when it is combined with field observations and simulated propagation scenarios. In conclusion we will give as working example a web-based system in USA which with adaptations can be applicable for Bulgarian conditions.

Landslide Hazard, Environmental Dependencies and Computer Simulations

Shallow landslides triggered by weather conditions are a major hazard in most mountainous and hilly regions of Europe. An efficient system for the evaluation of landslide hazard level from weather forecast data allows the possibility to develop fast alert systems and well-organized crisis management plans. A system of this kind should estimate the effect of weather on the slope stability and translate this estimation in a easy to use hazard map. So, its main components are a model for the dynamics of soil moisture, a model for the slope stability analysis, and a proper information system able to manage the corresponding data flow. The system presented in this paper has been developed during the LANDSLIDE project and it is available at web site http://93.123.110.111/landslide/.

Catching clouds: Simultaneous optimization of the parameters of biological agent plumes using Dirichlet processes to best estimate infection source location

We describe a stochastic method using Dirichlet processes to derive mixture models that allow the numerical description of outbreaks of diseases with multiple sources. We show that existing disease models may be extended using this method and how this may be used in a practical context to support the simulated response to a mass casualty public health emergency.

Decision Support Tool in the Project LANDSLIDE

In the framework of the LANDSLIDE project has been fulfilled field work on the test areas in Bulgaria, Italy, Poland and Greece. The project goal is to create a software tool helping the decision makers in cases of landslides with up to 20 m depth which can estimate the soil movement by calculating soil moisture and meteorological data conditions which in the literature are considered as main triggers in such natural hazards.

An intelligent system for resource allocation optimization of medical teams in mass casualty incidents

In cases of emergency situations many agencies and authorities need to exchange information between their departments in order to provide fast and accurate first aid to the people in need. In many cases medical teams go on the field with no information what to expect and sometimes the people providing help are in danger because of shortage of information prior to depart on the crisis scene. IMPRESS project platform aims to provide as much useful ICT tools for all involved responding actors as possible, by combining all available data nowadays improving the preparatory and response phases of the teams involved in the search and rescue activities. In our paper we will present the theoretical approach used for building the platform and one of the validation cases incorporated in the system as reference test case.

Computational optimizations in wildland fires for Bulgarian test cases

In this article we are going to present the optimizations that has been done through different types of modeling actions on wildland fires for Bulgarian test cases. We will present approaches where meteorological data along with terrain specific relief and vegetation coverage are modeled in a way to present credible scenarios for wildland propagation used for calibration purposes of the different approaches. This work aims to prove that the used modeling tools can be used also in real time decision support for the responsible authorities when it comes to wildland fire propagation and the measures corresponding to limitation of its devastating consequences for the nature and human lives.