Noah Knowles

Trends in Snowfall versus Rainfall in the Western United States

Abstract The water resources of the western United States depend heavily on snowpack to store part of the wintertime precipitation into the drier summer months. A well-documented shift toward earlier runoff in recent decades has been attributed to 1) more precipitation falling as rain instead of snow and 2) earlier snowmelt. The present study addresses the former, documenting a regional trend toward smaller ratios of winter-total snowfall water equivalent (SFE) to winter-total precipitation (P) during the period 1949–2004. The trends toward reduced SFE are a response to warming across the region, with the most significant reductions occurring where winter wet-day minimum temperatures, averaged over the study period, were warmer than −5°C. Most SFE reductions were associated with winter wet-day temperature increases between 0° and +3°C over the study period. Warmings larger than this occurred mainly at sites where the mean temperatures were cool enough that the precipitation form was less susceptible to wa...

Projected Evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a Century of Climate Change

BACKGROUND Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We linked a series of models to investigate responses of Californias San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010-2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21(st) century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.

Climate anomalies generate an exceptional dinoflagellate bloom in San Francisco Bay

] We describe a large dinoflagellate bloom,unprecedented in nearly three decades of observation, thatdeveloped in San Francisco Bay (SFB) during September2004. SFB is highly enriched in nutrients but has lowsummer-autumn algal biomass because wind stress andtidally induced bottom stress produce a well mixed andlight-limited pelagic habitat. The bloom coincided withcalm winds and record high air temperatures that stratifiedthe water column and suppressed mixing long enough formotile dinoflagellates to grow and accumulate in surfacewaters. This event-scale climate pattern, produced by anupper-atmosphere high-pressure anomaly off the U.S. westcoast, followed a summer of weak coastal upwelling andhigh dinoflagellate biomass in coastal waters that apparentlyseeded the SFB bloom. This event suggests that some redtides are responses to changes in local physical dynamicsthat are driven by large-scale atmospheric processes andoperate over both the event scale of biomass growth and theantecedent seasonal scale that shapes the bloom community.

Implications for Future Survival of Delta Smelt from Four Climate Change Scenarios for the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California

Changes in the position of the low salinity zone, a habitat suitability index, turbidity, and water temperature modeled from four 100-year scenarios of climate change were evaluated for possible effects on delta smelt Hypomesus transpacificus, which is endemic to the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. The persistence of delta smelt in much of its current habitat into the next century appears uncertain. By mid-century, the position of the low salinity zone in the fall and the habitat suitability index converged on values only observed during the worst droughts of the baseline period (1969–2000). Projected higher water temperatures would render waters historically inhabited by delta smelt near the confluence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers largely uninhabitable. However, the scenarios of climate change are based on assumptions that require caution in the interpretation of the results. Projections like these provide managers with a useful tool for anticipating long-term challenges to managing fish populations and possibly adapting water management to ameliorate those challenges.

Trends in Snow Cover and Related Quantities at Weather Stations in the Conterminous United States

AbstractTrend tests, linear regression, and canonical correlation analysis were used to quantify changes in National Weather Service Cooperative Observer (COOP) snow depth data and derived quantities, precipitation, snowfall, and temperature over the study period 1950–2010. Despite widespread warming, historical trends in snowfall and snow depth are generally mixed owing to competing influences of trends in precipitation. Trends toward later snow-cover onset in the western half of the conterminous United States and earlier onset in the eastern half and a widespread trend toward earlier final meltoff of snow cover combined to produce trends toward shorter snow seasons in the eastern half of the United States and in the west and longer snow seasons in the Great Plains and southern Rockies. The annual total number of days with snow cover exhibited a widespread decline. Monthly trend patterns show the dominant influence of temperature trends on occurrence of snow cover in the warmer snow-season months and a c...

The Transboundary Setting of California’s Water and Hydropower Systems

Climate fluctuations are an environmental stress that must be factored into our designs for water resources, power, and other societal and environmental concerns. Under California’s Mediterranean setting, winter and summer climate fluctuations both have important consequences. Winter climatic conditions determine the rates of water delivery to the state, and summer conditions determine most demands for water and energy. Both are dictated by spatially and temporally structured climate patterns over the Pacific and North America. Winter climatic conditions have particularly strong impacts on hydropower production and on San Francisco Bay/Delta water quality.