Noel A. Pelland

Climate change poised to threaten hydrologic connectivity and endemic fishes in dryland streams

Significance We provide the first demonstration to our knowledge that projected changes in regional climate regimes will have significant consequences for patterns of intermittence and hydrologic connectivity in dryland streams of the American Southwest. By simulating fine-resolution streamflow responses to forecasted climate change, we simultaneously evaluate alterations in local flow continuity over time and network flow connectivity over space and relate how these changes may challenge the persistence of a globally endemic fish fauna. Given that human population growth in arid regions will only further increase surface and groundwater extraction during droughts, we expect even greater likelihood of flow intermittence and loss of habitat connectivity in the future. Protecting hydrologic connectivity of freshwater ecosystems is fundamental to ensuring species persistence, ecosystem integrity, and human well-being. More frequent and severe droughts associated with climate change are poised to significantly alter flow intermittence patterns and hydrologic connectivity in dryland streams of the American Southwest, with deleterious effects on highly endangered fishes. By integrating local-scale hydrologic modeling with emerging approaches in landscape ecology, we quantify fine-resolution, watershed-scale changes in habitat size, spacing, and connectance under forecasted climate change in the Verde River Basin, United States. Model simulations project annual zero-flow day frequency to increase by 27% by midcentury, with differential seasonal consequences on continuity (temporal continuity at discrete locations) and connectivity (spatial continuity within the network). A 17% increase in the frequency of stream drying events is expected throughout the network with associated increases in the duration of these events. Flowing portions of the river network will diminish between 8% and 20% in spring and early summer and become increasingly isolated by more frequent and longer stretches of dry channel fragments, thus limiting the opportunity for native fishes to access spawning habitats and seasonally available refuges. Model predictions suggest that midcentury and late century climate will reduce network-wide hydrologic connectivity for native fishes by 6–9% over the course of a year and up to 12–18% during spring spawning months. Our work quantifies climate-induced shifts in stream drying and connectivity across a large river network and demonstrates their implications for the persistence of a globally endemic fish fauna.

Subthermocline Eddies over the Washington Continental Slope as Observed by Seagliders, 2003–09

AbstractIn the California Current System, subthermocline, lenslike anticyclonic eddies generated within the California Undercurrent (CU) are one mechanism for lateral transport of the warm, saline waters of the CU. Garfield et al. established the name “Cuddies” for eddies of this type and hypothesized that they account for a significant fraction of the offshore transport of CU water. This study presents observations of subthermocline eddies collected from a time series of Seaglider surveys in the northern California Current System. Gliders made 46 crossings of subthermocline anticyclones and 17 crossings of subthermocline cyclones over 5.5 yr. Close inspection grouped these into 20 distinct anticyclones and 10 distinct cyclones. Water properties at the core of anticyclonic eddies were similar to those in the core of the CU over the continental slope; these anticyclones are examples of Cuddies. Anticyclonic (cyclonic) eddies had average radii of 20.4 (20.6) km, peak azimuthal current speeds of 0.25 (0.23) ...

Estimating diffusivity from the mixed layer heat and salt balances in the North Pacific

Data from two National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) surface moorings in the North Pacific, in combination with data from satellite, Argo floats and glider (when available), are used to evaluate the residual diffusive flux of heat across the base of the mixed layer from the surface mixed layer heat budget. The diffusion coefficient (i.e., diffusivity) is then computed by dividing the diffusive flux by the temperature gradient in the 20-m transition layer just below the base of the mixed layer. At Station Papa in the NE Pacific subpolar gyre, this diffusivity is 1 × 10−4 m2/s during summer, increasing to ∼3 × 10−4 m2/s during fall. During late winter and early spring, diffusivity has large errors. At other times, diffusivity computed from the mixed layer salt budget at Papa correlate with those from the heat budget, giving confidence that the results are robust for all seasons except late winter-early spring and can be used for other tracers. In comparison, at the Kuroshio Extension Observatory (KEO) in the NW Pacific subtropical recirculation gyre, somewhat larger diffusivities are found based upon the mixed layer heat budget: ∼ 3 × 10−4 m2/s during the warm season and more than an order of magnitude larger during the winter, although again, wintertime errors are large. These larger values at KEO appear to be due to the increased turbulence associated with the summertime typhoons, and weaker wintertime stratification. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The sun, moon, wind, and biological imperative-shaping contrasting wintertime migration and foraging strategies of adult male and female northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus).

Adult male and female northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) are sexually segregated in different regions of the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea during their winter migration. Explanations for this involve interplay between physiology, predator-prey dynamics, and ecosystem characteristics, however possible mechanisms lack empirical support. To investigate factors influencing the winter ecology of both sexes, we deployed five satellite-linked conductivity, temperature, and depth data loggers on adult males, and six satellite-linked depth data loggers and four satellite transmitters on adult females from St. Paul Island (Bering Sea, Alaska, USA) in October 2009. Males and females migrated to different regions of the North Pacific Ocean: males wintered in the Bering Sea and northern North Pacific Ocean, while females migrated to the Gulf of Alaska and California Current. Horizontal and vertical movement behaviors of both sexes were influenced by wind speed, season, light (sun and moon), and the ecosystem they occupied, although the expression of the behaviors differed between sexes. Male dive depths were aligned with the depth of the mixed layer during daylight periods and we suspect this was the case for females upon their arrival to the California Current. We suggest that females, because of their smaller size and physiological limitations, must avoid severe winters typical of the northern North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea and migrate long distances to areas of more benign environmental conditions and where prey is shallower and more accessible. In contrast, males can better tolerate often extreme winter ocean conditions and exploit prey at depth because of their greater size and physiological capabilities. We believe these contrasting winter behaviors 1) are a consequence of evolutionary selection for large size in males, important to the acquisition and defense of territories against rivals during the breeding season, and 2) ease environmental/physiological constraints imposed on smaller females.

Seaglider surveys at Ocean Station Papa: Circulation and water mass properties in a meander of the North Pacific current

A Seaglider autonomous underwater vehicle augmented the Ocean Station Papa (OSP; 50°N, 145°W) surface mooring, measuring spatial structure on scales relevant to the monthly evolution of the moored time series. During each of three missions from June 2008-January 2010, a Seaglider made biweekly 50 km × 50 km surveys in a bowtie-shaped survey track. Horizontal temperature and salinity gradients measured by these surveys were an order of magnitude stronger than climatological values and sometimes of opposite sign. Geostrophically-inferred circulation was corroborated by moored acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements and AVISO satellite altimetry estimates of surface currents, confirming that glider surveys accurately resolved monthly-scale mesoscale spatial structure. In contrast to climatological North Pacific Current circulation, upper ocean flow was modestly northward during the first half of the 18 month survey period, and weakly westward during its latter half, with Rossby number (0.01). This change in circulation coincided with a shift from cool and fresh to warm, saline, oxygen-rich water in the upper-ocean halocline, and an increase in vertical finestructure there and in the lower pycnocline. The anomalous flow and abrupt water mass transition were due to the slow growth of an anticyclonic meander within the North Pacific Current with radius comparable to the scale of the survey pattern, originating to the southeast of OSP. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Seaglider surveys at Ocean Station Papa: Diagnosis of upper-ocean heat and salt balances using least-squares with inequality constraints

Heat and salt balances in the upper 200 m are examined using data from Seaglider spatial surveys June 2008-January 2010 surrounding a NOAA surface mooring at Ocean Station Papa (OSP; 50°N, 145°W). A least-squares approach is applied to repeat Seaglider survey and moored measurements to solve for unknown or uncertain monthly three-dimensional circulation and vertical diffusivity. Within the surface boundary layer, the estimated heat and salt balances are dominated throughout the surveys by turbulent flux, vertical advection, and for heat, radiative absorption. When vertically-integrated balances are considered, an estimated upwelling of cool water balances the net surface input of heat, while the corresponding large import of salt across the halocline due to upwelling and diffusion is balanced by surface moisture input and horizontal import of fresh water. Measurement of horizontal gradients allows the estimation of unresolved vertical terms over more than one annual cycle; diffusivity in the upper-ocean transition layer decreases rapidly to the depth of the maximum near-surface stratification in all months, with weak seasonal modulation in the rate of decrease and profile amplitude. Vertical velocity is estimated to be on average upward but with important monthly variations. Results support and expand existing evidence concerning the importance of horizontal advection in the balances of heat and salt in the Gulf of Alaska, highlight time and depth variability in difficult-to-measure vertical transports in the upper ocean, and suggest avenues of further study in future observational work at OSP.

Seasonal and interannual variability in along-slope oceanic properties off the US West Coast: Inferences from a high-resolution regional model

A 6-year, 2009-2014 simulation using a 2-km horizontal resolution ocean circulation model of the Northeast Pacific coast is analyzed with focus on seasonal and interannual variability in along-slope subsurface oceanic properties. Specifically, the fields are sampled on the isopycnal surface σ = 26.5 kg m−3 that is found between depths of 150 and 300 m below the ocean surface over the continental slope. The fields analyzed include the depth z26.5, temperature T26.5, along-slope currents ν26.5 and the average potential vorticity PV between σ = 26.5 and 26.25 kg m−3. Each field is averaged in the cross-shore direction over the continental slope and presented as a function of the alongshore coordinate and time. The seasonal cycle in z26.5 shows a coherent upwelling-downwelling pattern from Mexico to Canada propagating to the north with a speed of 0.5 m s−1. The anomalously deep (−20 m) z26.5 displacement in spring-summer 2014 is forced by the southern boundary condition at 24°N as a manifestation of an emerging strong El Nino. The seasonal cycle in T26.5 is most pronounced between 36-53°N indicating that subarctic waters are replaced by warmer Californian waters in summer with the speed close 0.15 m s−1, which is consistent with earlier estimates of the undercurrent speed and also present ν26.5 analyses. The seasonal patterns and anomalies in z26.5 and T26.5 find confirmation in available long-term glider and ship-borne observations. The PV seasonality over the slope is qualitatively different to the south and north of the southern edge of Heceta Bank (43.9°N).