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Dive into the research topics where Noel Aloysius is active.

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Featured researches published by Noel Aloysius.


Journal of Geophysical Research | 2016

Evaluation of historical and future simulations of precipitation and temperature in central Africa from CMIP5 climate models

Noel Aloysius; Justin Sheffield; James E. Saiers; Haibin Li; Eric F. Wood

Global and regional climate change assessments rely heavily on the general circulation model (GCM) outputs such as provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Here we evaluate the ability of 25 CMIP5 GCMs to simulate historical precipitation and temperature over central Africa and assess their future projections in the context of historical performance and intermodel and future emission scenario uncertainties. We then apply a statistical bias correction technique to the monthly climate fields and develop monthly downscaled fields for the period of 1948–2099. The bias-corrected and downscaled data set is constructed by combining a suite of global observation and reanalysis-based data sets, with the monthly GCM outputs for the 20th century, and 21st century projections for the medium mitigation (representative concentration pathway (RCP)45) and high emission (RCP85) scenarios. Overall, the CMIP5 models simulate temperature better than precipitation, but substantial spatial heterogeneity exists. Many models show limited skill in simulating the seasonality, spatial patterns, and magnitude of precipitation. Temperature projections by the end of the 21st century (2070–2099) show a robust warming between 2 and 4°C across models, whereas precipitation projections vary across models in the sign and magnitude of change (−9% to 27%). Projected increase in precipitation for a subset of models (single model ensemble (SME)) identified based on performance metrics and causal mechanisms are slightly higher compared to the full multimodel ensemble (MME) mean; however, temperature projections are similar between the two ensemble means. For the near-term (2021–2050), neither the historical performance nor choice of models is related to the precipitation projections, indicating that natural variability dominated any signal. With fewer models, the “blind” MME approach will have larger uncertainties in future precipitation projections compared to projections by the SME models. We propose the latter a better approach in regions that lack quality climate observations. Our analyses also show that the choice of model and emission scenario dominate the uncertainty in precipitation projections, whereas the emission scenario dominates the temperature projections. Although our analyses are done for central Africa, the final Bias-Corrected Spatially Downscaled data set is available for global land areas. The framework for climate change assessment and the data will be useful for a variety of climate assessment, impact, and adaptation studies.


Geophysical Research Letters | 2015

Spatial and temporal trends in freshwater appropriation for natural gas development in Pennsylvania's Marcellus Shale Play

Erica Barth-Naftilan; Noel Aloysius; James E. Saiers

We characterize the appropriation of surface water for the extraction of natural gas from Pennsylvanias Marcellus Shale, and we examine the influences of these diversions on stream flows at 300 sites. Our analysis reveals that permitted withdrawals range from 50 m3/d to more than 18,000 m3/d and that water is taken from streams of all sizes, from headwater streams to eighth-order rivers. Flow alteration varies inversely with watershed area and, for larger streams, is compounded by upstream withdrawals. The ratio of daily permitted withdrawal to median stream flow ranges from 0.0001 to unity, although low flows in most, but not all, smaller streams are protected by pass-by flow requirements. Temporal changes in surface water withdrawals track gas well completion activity, rather than changes in operational strategies, and while reuse of wastewater has increased since 2009, freshwater accounted for 75% of water used in hydraulic fracturing through the peak in gas well completion activity.


Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment | 2017

Multiple models guide strategies for agricultural nutrient reductions

Donald Scavia; Margaret M. Kalcic; Rebecca Logsdon Muenich; Jennifer Read; Noel Aloysius; Isabella Bertani; Chelsie Boles; Remegio Confesor; Joseph V. DePinto; Marie Gildow; Jay F. Martin; Todd Redder; Dale M. Robertson; Scott P. Sowa; Yu-Chen Wang; Haw Yen


Archive | 2016

Informing Lake Erie agriculture nutrient management via scenario evaluation

Donald Scavia; Margaret M. Kalcic; Rebecca Logsdon Muenich; Noel Aloysius; Jeffrey G. Arnold; Chelsie Boles; Remegio Confesor; Joseph V. DePinto; Marie Gildow; Jay F. Martin; Jennifer Read; Todd Redder; Dale M. Robertson; Scott P. Sowa; Yu-Chen Wang; Michael J. White; Haw Yen


Journal of Great Lakes Research | 2016

Anticipated impacts of climate change on 21st century Maumee River discharge and nutrient loads

Andreas Mitsutoshi Culbertson; Jay F. Martin; Noel Aloysius; Stuart A. Ludsin


Journal of Great Lakes Research | 2016

Fertilizer placement and application timing as strategies to reduce phosphorus loading to Lake Erie

Marie Gildow; Noel Aloysius; Seyoum Y. Gebremariam; Jay F. Martin


Hydrology and Earth System Sciences | 2016

Simulated hydrologic response to projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the Congo River basin

Noel Aloysius; James E. Saiers


Journal of Geophysical Research | 2016

Evaluation of historical and future simulations of precipitation and temperature in central Africa from CMIP5 climate models: Climate Change in Central Africa

Noel Aloysius; Justin Sheffield; James E. Saiers; Haibin Li; Eric F. Wood


Archive | 2016

Temperature in the Congo River Basin

Noel Aloysius; James E. Saiers; Organismal Biology


Geophysical Research Letters | 2015

Spatial and temporal trends in freshwater appropriation for natural gas development in Pennsylvania's Marcellus Shale Play: WATER APPROPRIATION FOR FRACKING

Erica Barth-Naftilan; Noel Aloysius; James E. Saiers

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Dale M. Robertson

United States Geological Survey

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