Olaf van Vliet

Patterns of welfare state indicators in the EU : Is there convergence?

Convergence of social protection objectives and policies in Member States is an explicit objective of the EU. Earlier research has shown that there has indeed been a tendency of convergence of social protection levels over the last decades. However, comparative studies frequently use indicators which may not be representative as measures of the welfare state. In this article we have done several convergence tests with the most recent data, using a variety of indicators of social protection: social expenditures, both at the macro and at the programme level, replacement rates of unemployment and social assistance benefits and poverty indicators. Together, these indicators provide a broader picture of the evolution of social protection. Our results are less clear cut than earlier findings. We still find convergence of social expenditure in EU countries over a longer period. However, this trend seems to have stagnated in recent years. The evidence is mixed for the other indicators. Replacement rates of unemployment benefits converged to a higher level, but social assistance benefits did not. Poverty rates and poverty gaps have converged since the mid-1980s, but the levels of both indicators have developed in the opposite direction.

Not Quite Crisp, Not Yet Fuzzy? Assessing the Potentials and Pitfalls of Multi-Value QCA

This article assesses the strengths and shortcomings of multi-value qualitative comparative analysis (mvQCA), a comparative technique for small- to medium-sized data sets that has been integrated in the TOSMANA software developed by Lasse Cronqvist. The main difference with “crisp-set” QCA is that in mvQCA, the conditions can have more values than just the Boolean values 0 and 1, whereas the main difference with “fuzzy-set” QCA is that mvQCA conditions remain discrete. The major advantage of nondichotomous categorization, according to its proponents, is that it reduces the likelihood of contradictory configurations because of a more homogeneous grouping of cases. We give an overview of existing mvQCA applications, with a detailed discussion of two recent publications, and argue that crisp-set and fuzzy-set alternatives should be less easily discarded, as the mvQCA solution comes with substantial set-theoretical costs.

Europeanization and the political economy of active labour market policies

Previous studies show that reforms in labour market policies differ across countries. This may be partly owing to the impact of European integration on these policy reforms. Whereas most of these studies are qualitative case studies, the present study aims at explaining cross-national variation in expenditures on active labour market policies (ALMPs) quantitatively. Relying on pooled time-series data, the study tests whether and how Europeanization influenced activation. The analyses lead to the conclusion that the European Employment Strategy (EES) has contributed to shifts from passive to active labour market policies. Using new indicators, we trace the impact of specific mechanisms of the EES, resulting in evidence for the influence of mutual learning through the peer review programme.

European Social Model: No Convergence from the East

Abstract Quantitative evidence based on social expenditure suggests that since Esping‐Andersen’s seminal study on welfare regimes, there has been a certain general convergence towards a European Social Model (ESM). The data, controlled for cyclical and demographic effects, show that, in recent years, social expenditures of EU‐15 member states have converged, whereas in the mature non‐EU welfare states this has not been the case. In this long‐term quantitative view, a tentative suggestion would be that Europeanization might be prevailing over path dependence of distinct models. However, the data also show a certain deviation from the model — the post‐communist new member states (NMS) form a distinct group. This is confirmed by a cluster analysis based on social benefit generosity. To provide a background to these findings and, especially, to highlight the avenues for further investigation, the paper also looks at the institutional arrangements in the NMS. In particular, it draws attention to pension systems as a particularly sizeable component of the welfare state to illustrate how far most of the post‐communist EU members diverge in terms of the institutional arrangements of their welfare systems. It seems, then, that while the ‘deepening’ of European integration in other policy areas has been accompanied by a convergence towards a ESM in the EU‐15 countries, the ‘widening’ of the EU has meant, at the same time, that there is now a group of states within the EU that diverge significantly from the dominant model.

Divergence within Convergence: Europeanization of Social and Labour Market Policies

Since the adoption of the European Employment Strategy and the Lisbon strategy, convergence of social protection goals and labour market policies across EU countries features prominently on the European agenda. Embedded in convergence, Europeanisation and welfare state literature, this paper examines the role of European integration in changing social policies. It shows that since 1995, social expenditures of EU member states have converged and increased on average, whereas those of non-EU countries have diverged, corrected for cyclical and demographic effects. This EU-specific convergence pattern of social expenditures leads to the subsequent question whether or not national policies also have converged. Relying on disaggregated expenditure data and policy indicators, this study shows an EU-specific trend of increasing activation of labour market policies. However, within this scope of activation, countries have opted for different mixes of policy instruments.Since the adoption of the European Employment Strategy and the Lisbon strategy, convergence of social protection goals and labour market policies across EU countries features prominently on the European agenda. Embedded in convergence, Europeanisation and welfare state literature, this paper examines the role of European integration in changing social policies. It shows that since 1995, social expenditures of EU member states have converged and increased on average, whereas those of non-EU countries have diverged, corrected for cyclical and demographic effects. This EU-specific convergence pattern of social expenditures leads to the subsequent question whether or not national policies also have converged. Relying on disaggregated expenditure data and policy indicators, this study shows an EU-specific trend of increasing activation of labour market policies. However, within this scope of activation, countries have opted for different mixes of policy instruments.

Social Investment and Poverty Reduction: A Comparative Analysis Across Fifteen European Countries

Despite the fact that employment rates have increased in many European countries since the beginning of the 2000s, poverty rates have stagnated and in some countries even increased. In the welfare state literature, it has been argued that these disappointing poverty trends may be partly attributable to the reforming of traditional welfare state programmes into social investment policies, because the latter are less redistributive. To date, there are only a few systematic comparative empirical analyses which focus on the outcomes of social investment policies. This paper contributes to the social investment literature by empirically analysing the distributional effects of shifts from traditional welfare state arrangements to social investment policies in fifteen European countries for the period 1997–2007. Our results suggest that the detrimental effect of social investment policies, described in some specific cases in the literature, cannot be generalised across a larger group of European countries. However, for European countries other than the Nordic countries, the results provide some evidence for a linkage between stagnating or increasing poverty trends and shifts in expenditures to new welfare state programmes.

Potentials and Pitfalls of Multi-value QCA Response to Thiem

We appreciate the opportunity to reply to the comment by Thiem (2013) on our article on the potentials and pitfalls of multi-value Qualitative Comparative Analysis (mvQCA) (Vink and van Vliet 2009). Our original article was framed as a reflection on the set-theoretic status of the relatively novel technique of mvQCA, which had been introduced by Cronqvist (2004) to deal with the problem of analyzing multichotomous nominal variables, such as religion or types of welfare states. While recognizing the potential of mvQCA, we were unconvinced by Herrmann and Cronqvist’s (2009) argument that mvQCA would be particularly suitable for ‘‘genuinely middle-sized’’ data sets. Further, we observed with some surprise that insofar as mvQCA had been applied, this has been virtually never done to accommodate the use of multichotomous nominal conditions, as originally foreseen. Most importantly, we argued that in set-theoretic terms, these conditions were different from either crisp-set or fuzzy-set conditions. We observed that mvQCA users had so far applied this new technique in a rather unreflective manner.

EU Co‐Ordination and the Convergence of Domestic Unemployment Protection Schemes

The European Employment Strategy (EES) aims to promote convergence towards higher employment and lower unemployment by soft law instruments. Previous studies in the Europeanization literature on the impact of the EES are mainly focused on active labour market policies. This article explains cross-national variation in national passive labour market policies. Building on new pooled time-series data, the empirical findings reveal the presence of a convergence process among the most advanced economies regarding passive labour market policy efforts, with the EES fostering this trend even further. Furthermore, the findings support the argument that the EES creates pressure on governments to reform domestic labour market policies, but this pressure varies across countries and over time. The findings provide new insights into the relationship between Europeanization and convergence, which may be relevant for EU co-ordination more generally – for example, for the EU 2020 strategy.

Convergence without hard criteria : Does EU soft law affect domestic unemployment protection schemes?

The European Employment Strategy (EES) aims to promote convergence of domestic labour market policies by soft law instruments. Previous studies on the impact of the EES are mainly focused on active labour market policies. The present study aims at explaining cross national variation in national passive labour market policies and unemployment benefit levels. Building on the most recent measures and pooled time series data, the empirical findings reveal the presence of a convergence process among the most advanced economies regarding passive labour market policy efforts, with the EES fostering this trend even further. Furthermore, our findings support the argument that the EES creates pressure on governments to reform domestic labour market policies, but this pressure varies across countries and over time. The results suggest that the recommendations from the European Council have contributed to unemployment benefit reform processes.

Pension Reform and Income Inequality Among the Elderly in 15 European Countries

The ageing of populations and hampering economic growth increase pressure on public fi-nances in many advanced capitalist societies. Consequently, governments have adopted pen-sion reforms in order to relieve pressure on public finances. These reforms have contributed to a relative shift from public to private pension schemes. Since private social security plans are generally less redistributive than public social security, it can be hypothesized that the privatization of pension plans has led to higher levels of income inequality among the elderly. Existing empirical literature has mainly focused on cross-country comparisons at one moment in time or on time-series for a single country. This study contributes to the income inequality and pension literature by empirically analysing the distributional effects of shifts from public to private pension provision in 15 European countries for the period 1995-2007, using pooled time series cross-section regression analyses. Remarkably, we do not find empirical evidence that shifts from public to private pension provision lead to higher levels of income inequality or poverty among elderly people. The results appear to be robust for a wide range of econometric specifications.