Ole Rogeberg

The Anatomy of Absenteeism

Based on comprehensive administrative register data from Norway, we examine the determinants of sickness absence behavior; in terms of employee characteristics workplace characteristics, panel doctor characteristics, and economic conditions. The analysis is based on a novel concept of a workers steady state sickness absence propensity, computed from a multivariate hazard rate model designed to predict the incidence and the duration of sickness absence for all workers. Key conclusions are i) that most of the cross-sectional variation in absenteeism is caused by genuine employee heterogeneity; ii) that the identity of a persons panel doctor has a significant impact on absence propensity; iii) that sickness absence insurance is frequently certified for reasons other than sickness; and iv) that the recovery rate rises enormously just prior to the exhaustion of sickness insurance benefits.

Correlations between cannabis use and IQ change in the Dunedin cohort are consistent with confounding from socioeconomic status

Does cannabis use have substantial and permanent effects on neuropsychological functioning? Renewed and intense attention to the issue has followed recent research on the Dunedin cohort, which found a positive association between, on the one hand, adolescent-onset cannabis use and dependence and, on the other hand, a decline in IQ from childhood to adulthood [Meier et al. (2012) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109(40):E2657–E2664]. The association is given a causal interpretation by the authors, but existing research suggests an alternative confounding model based on time-varying effects of socioeconomic status on IQ. A simulation of the confounding model reproduces the reported associations from the Dunedin cohort, suggesting that the causal effects estimated in Meier et al. are likely to be overestimates, and that the true effect could be zero. Further analyses of the Dunedin cohort are proposed to distinguish between the competing interpretations. Although it would be too strong to say that the results have been discredited, the methodology is flawed and the causal inference drawn from the results premature.

Taking Absurd Theories Seriously: Economics and the Case of Rational Addiction Theories*

Rational addiction theories illustrate how absurd choice theories in economics get taken seriously as possibly true explanations and tools for welfare analysis despite being poorly interpreted, empirically unfalsifiable, and based on wildly inaccurate assumptions selectively justified by ad‐hoc stories. The lack of transparency introduced by poorly anchored mathematical models, the psychological persuasiveness of stories, and the way the profession neglects relevant issues are suggested as explanations for how what we perhaps should see as displays of technical skill and ingenuity are allowed to blur the lines between science and games.

Properties of the Cigarette Dependence Scale and the Fagerström Test of Nicotine Dependence in a representative sample of smokers in Norway

AIMS To compare the properties of four measures of dependence to nicotine/tobacco, the 12-item Cigarette Dependence Scale (CDS-12), the six-item Fagerström Test of Nicotine Dependence (FTND) and two shorter versions of the same measures. METHODS In a cross-sectional telephone survey of smokers in a representative general population sample in Norway, we compared the measures. We assessed (i) internal consistency reliability with Cronbachs alpha; (ii) compared item scores; and (iii) tested the validity of the questionnaires. Test-retest reliability was assessed in a smaller convenience sample. RESULTS Among 1265 respondents (64%), 290 (23%) were daily smokers and included in further analysis. Their mean age was 42 years [standard deviation (SD) 15] and 46% were female. They smoked on average 13 cigarettes per day (SD 6). Internal consistency reliability was 0.61 for the FTND (n = 267) and 0.81 for the CDS-12 (n = 266). Score distributions suggested a floor effect for the FTND. Test-retest reliability was 0.90 for the FTND and 0.97 for the CDS-12 (n = 31). The correlation between the scale scores and a question about the maximum willingness to pay for a cigarette after not smoking all day was 0.36 (P < 0.001) for the FTND (n = 262) and 0.45 (P < 0.001) for the CDS-12 (n = 263). There was little difference in the associations of the two scales or their abbreviated versions with external variables. CONCLUSIONS Telephone administration was acceptable for both questionnaires, and we have established population reference values for the four scales. The questionnaires were associated with each other and showed similar properties. The findings support the construct validity of the scales.

Addiction: Choice or compulsion?

Normative thinking about addiction has traditionally been divided between, on the one hand, a medical model which sees addiction as a disease characterized by compulsive and relapsing drug use over which the addict has little or no control and, on the other, a moral model which sees addiction as a choice characterized by voluntary behavior under the control of the addict. Proponents of the former appeal to evidence showing that regular consumption of drugs causes persistent changes in the brain structures and functions known to be involved in the motivation of behavior. On this evidence, it is often concluded that becoming addicted involves a transition from voluntary, chosen drug use to non-voluntary compulsive drug use. Against this view, proponents of the moral model provide ample evidence that addictive drug use involves voluntary chosen behavior. In this article we argue that although they are right about something, both views are mistaken. We present a third model that neither rules out the view of addictive drug use as compulsive, nor that it involves voluntary chosen behavior.

Functional connectivity change across multiple cortical networks relates to episodic memory changes in aging

A major task of contemporary cognitive neuroscience of aging is to explain why episodic memory declines. Change in resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) could be a mechanism accounting for reduced function. We addressed this through 3 studies. In study 1, 119 healthy participants (20-83 years) were followed for 3.5 years with verbal recall testing and magnetic resonance imaging. Independent of atrophy, recall change was related to change in rsFC in anatomically widespread areas. Striking age-effects were observed in that a positive relationship between rsFC and memory characterized older participants while a negative relationship was seen among the younger and middle-aged. This suggests that cognitive consequences of rsFC change are not stable across age. In study 2 and 3, the age-dependent differences in rsFC-memory relationship were replicated by use of a simulation model (study 2) and by a cross-sectional experimental recognition memory task (study 3). In conclusion, memory changes were related to altered rsFC in an age-dependent manner, and future research needs to detail the mechanisms behind age-varying relationships.

A defence of absurd theories in economics

Theories that involve plainly false and even bizarre assumptions could have an important role in bundling empirical facts and allowing these to be understood, handled and used as modules in the construction of mechanisms by economists with human cognitive limits. Absurd theories would be subcomponents used in a valid explanatory strategy as long as the mechanisms only derive the implications of the facts summarised. This provides a defence and explanation of parts of current practise, but also imposes hard limits on such theorising.

Drug policy, values and the public health approach – four lessons from drug policy reform movements

Drug policies affect a large set of outcomes and may reflect the concerns of several policy stakeholder groups. Researchers analysing policies typically employ a public health approach, extended to reflect concerns beyond population health and longevity. I argue that the resulting approach, as currently practised, fails to capture several concerns seen as important by recent drug policy reform movements, that is, the full harms of illegal markets, the subjectively valued consumption of intoxicants, the dysfunctionality of current policy processes in the drug field and the value of the knowledge gained from policy experiments. I illustrate this by referring to the book Drug policy and the public good, a public health-based review of research evidence and its relevance for drug policy written by leading international researchers in the field.

What Explains Willingness to Pay for Smoking-Cessation Treatments —Addiction Level, Quit-Rate Effectiveness or the Opening Bid?

AbstractBackground: Several countries have now passed laws that place limitations on where smokers may smoke. A range of smoking-cessation treatments have become available, many of which have documented increased quit rates. Population surveys show that most smokers wish to quit, and most nonsmokers would prefer to reduce the prevalence of smoking in society. The strengths of these preferences, however, as measured by their willingness to pay (WTP), have not yet been investigated. Objective: This study aims to identify variables that explain variations in people’s answers to WTP questions on smoking-cessation treatments. Methods: A representative sample of the Norwegian population was asked their WTP in terms of an earmarked contribution to a public smokingcessation programme. A sub-group of daily smokers was, in addition, asked about their WTP for a hypothetical treatment that would remove their urge to smoke. The impact of variation in the question format (different opening bids) on stated WTP was compared with that of factors suggested by economic theory, such as quit-rate effectiveness, degree of addiction as measured by the 12-item Cigarette Dependence Scale (CDS-12), and degree of peer group influence as measured by the proportion of one’s friends who smoke. Results: In both programmes, the most important determinant for explaining variations in WTP was the size of the opening bid. Differences in quit-rate effectiveness did not matter for people’s WTP for the smoking-cessation programme. Addiction, and having a small proportion of friends who smoke, were positively associated with smokers’ WTP to quit smoking. Conclusion: Variations in WTP were influenced more by how the question was framed in terms of differences in opening bids, than by variables reflecting the quality (effectiveness) and need (addiction level) for the good in question. While the WTP method is theoretically attractive, the findings that outcomes in terms of different quit rates did not affect WTP, and that WTP answers can be manipulated by the chosen opening bid, should raise further doubts on the ability of this method to provide valid and reliable answers that reflect true preferences for health and healthcare.

Acceptance of unsupported claims about reality: a blind spot in economics

Do economists accept absurd and unsupported claims about reality, and if so, why? We define four types of claims commonly made in economics that require different types of evidence, and show examples of each from the rational addiction literature. Claims about real world causal mechanisms and welfare effects seem poorly supported. A survey mailed to all researchers with peer-reviewed work on rational addiction theory provides some evidence that criteria for evaluating claims of pure theory and statistical prediction are better understood than those needed for claims of causality or welfare analysis. We suggest that unsupported claims about real world causality or welfare may be accepted in parts of economics provided they derive from a formally correct model consistent with certain types of (often aggregate) data. The rational addiction literature illustrates that this can lead to absurd and unjustified claims being made and accepted in even highly-ranked journals.