Simen Markussen

The Anatomy of Absenteeism

Based on comprehensive administrative register data from Norway, we examine the determinants of sickness absence behavior; in terms of employee characteristics workplace characteristics, panel doctor characteristics, and economic conditions. The analysis is based on a novel concept of a workers steady state sickness absence propensity, computed from a multivariate hazard rate model designed to predict the incidence and the duration of sickness absence for all workers. Key conclusions are i) that most of the cross-sectional variation in absenteeism is caused by genuine employee heterogeneity; ii) that the identity of a persons panel doctor has a significant impact on absence propensity; iii) that sickness absence insurance is frequently certified for reasons other than sickness; and iv) that the recovery rate rises enormously just prior to the exhaustion of sickness insurance benefits.

The Sick Pay Trap

In most countries, employers are financially responsible for sick pay during an initial period of a worker’s absence spell, after which the public insurance system covers the bill. Based on an empirical evaluation of a quasi-natural experiment in Norway, where pay liability was removed for pregnancy-related absences, we show that the system of short-term pay liability creates a sick pay trap: firms are discouraged from letting long-term sick workers back into work since they then face the financial risk associated with subsequent relapses. We present evidence indicating that this disincentive effect is both statistically and economically significant.

Does retirement age impact mortality

The relationship between retirement and mortality is studied with a unique administrative data set covering the full population of Norway. A series of retirement policy changes in Norway reduced the retirement age for a group of workers but not for others. Difference-in-differences estimation based on monthly birth cohorts and treatment group status show that the early retirement programme significantly reduced the retirement age; this holds true also when we account for programme substitution, for example into the disability pension. Instrumental variables estimation results show no effect on mortality of retirement age; neither do estimation results from a hazard rate model.

Social Insurance Networks

Based on administrative panel data from Norway, we examine how social insurance claims spread among neighbors and former schoolmates. We use a fixed effects methodology that accounts for endogenous group formation, contextual interactions generated by predetermined social factors, and time-constant as well as time-varying confounders. We report evidence that social insurance claims are contagious. There are significant local peer effects both in the overall use of social insurance and in the propensity to use one particular social insurance program rather than another. The magnitudes of the estimated peer effects rise consistently with measures of geographical and relational closeness.

Children and Careers: How Family Size Affects Parents’ Labor Market Outcomes in the Long Run

We estimate the effect of family size on various measures of labor market outcomes over the whole career until retirement, using instrumental variables estimation in data from Norwegian administrative registers. Parents’ number of children is instrumented with the sex mix of their first two children. We find that having additional children causes sizable reductions in labor supply for women, which fade as children mature and even turn positive for women without a college degree. Among women with a college degree, there is evidence of persistent and even increasing career penalties of family size. Having additional children reduces these women’s probability of being employed by higher-paying firms, their earnings rank within the employing firm, and their probability of being the top earner at the workplace. Some of the career effects persist long after labor supply is restored. We find no effect of family size on any of men’s labor market outcomes in either the short or long run.

Can Compulsory Dialogues Nudge Sick-Listed Workers Back to Work?

We evaluate the impacts of a compulsory dialogue meeting for long-term sick-listed workers in Norway. The meeting is organised by the local social security administration after around six months of absence, and its purpose is to bring together the absentee, the employer, and the family physician to discuss whether arrangements can be made to facilitate partial or full work resumption. Our causal analysis is based on random-assignment-like geographical variation in the meeting propensity. We find that the meetings reduce absence duration considerably, both through a notification and an attendance effect. They also reduce the risk of premature labour market exit.

Television, Cognitive Ability, and High School Completion

We exploit supply-driven heterogeneity in the expansion of cable television across Norwegian municipalities to identify developmental effects of commercial television exposure during childhood. We find that higher exposure to commercial television reduces cognitive ability and high school graduation rates for boys. The effects appear to be driven by consumption of light television entertainment crowding out more cognitively stimulating activities. Point estimates suggest that the effects are most negative for boys from more educated families. We find no effect on high school completion for girls, pointing to the growth of noneducational media as a factor in the widening educational gender gap.

Daylight and absenteeism – Evidence from Norway

Based on administrative register data from Norway, we examine the impact of hours of daylight on sick-leave absences among workers. Our preferred estimates imply that an additional hour of daylight increases the daily entry rate to absenteeism by 0.5 percent and the corresponding recovery rate by 0.8 percent, ceteris paribus. The overall relationship between absenteeism and daylight hours is negative. Absenteeism is also sensitive to weather conditions. Heavy snowfall raises the incidence of absence during the winter, while warm weather reduces the probability of returning to work during the summer.