Olga Vikhireva

Socioeconomic inequalities in all-cause mortality in the Czech Republic, Russia, Poland and Lithuania in the 2000s: findings from the HAPIEE Study

Background Relatively large socioeconomic inequalities in health and mortality have been observed in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the former Soviet Union (FSU). Yet comparative data are sparse and virtually all studies include only education. The aim of this study is to quantify and compare socioeconomic inequalities in all-cause mortality during the 2000s in urban population samples from four CEE/FSU countries, by three different measures of socioeconomic position (SEP) (education, difficulty buying food and household amenities), reflecting different aspects of SEP. Methods Data from the prospective population-based HAPIEE (Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial factors in Eastern Europe) study were used. The baseline survey (2002–2005) included 16 812 men and 19 180 women aged 45–69 years in Novosibirsk (Russia), Krakow (Poland), Kaunas (Lithuania) and seven Czech towns. Deaths in the cohorts were identified through mortality registers. Data were analysed by direct standardisation and Cox regression, quantifying absolute and relative SEP differences. Results Mortality inequalities by the three SEP indicators were observed in all samples. The magnitude of inequalities varied according to gender, country and SEP measure. As expected, given the high mortality rates in Russian men, largest absolute inequalities were found among Russian men (educational slope index of inequality was 19.4 per 1000 person-years). Largest relative inequalities were observed in Czech men and Lithuanian subjects. Disadvantage by all three SEP measures remained strongly associated with increased mortality after adjusting for the other SEP indicators. Conclusions The results emphasise the importance of all SEP measures for understanding mortality inequalities in CEE/FSU.

SCORE performance in Central and Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union: MONICA and HAPIEE results

Aims The Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) scale assesses 10 year risk of fatal atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD), based on conventional risk factors. The high-risk SCORE version is recommended for Central and Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union (CEE/FSU), but its performance has never been systematically assessed in the region. We evaluated SCORE performance in two sets of population-based CEE/FSU cohorts. Methods and results The cohorts based on the World Health Organization MONitoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease (MONICA) surveys in the Czech Republic, Poland (Warsaw and Tarnobrzeg), Lithuania (Kaunas), and Russia (Novosibirsk) were followed from the mid-1980s. The Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial factors in Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) study follows Czech, Polish (Krakow), and Russian (Novosibirsk) cohorts from 2002–05. In Cox regression analyses, the high-risk SCORE ≥5% at baseline significantly predicted CVD mortality in both MONICA [n = 15 027; hazard ratios (HR), 1.7–6.3] and HAPIEE (n = 20 517; HR, 2.6–10.5) samples. While SCORE calibration was good in most MONICA samples (predicted and observed mortality were close), the risk was underestimated in Russia. In HAPIEE, the high-risk SCORE overpredicted the estimated 10 year mortality for Czech and Polish samples and adequately predicted it for Russia. SCORE discrimination was satisfactory in both MONICA and HAPIEE. Conclusion The high-risk SCORE underestimated the fatal CVD risk in Russian MONICA but performed well in most MONICA samples and Russian HAPIEE. This SCORE version might overestimate the risk in contemporary Czech and Polish populations.

Non-fatal injuries in three Central and Eastern European urban population samples: the HAPIEE study

Background: Despite high mortality from injuries and accidents, data on rates and distribution of non-fatal injuries in Central and Eastern European populations are scarce. Methods: Cross-sectional study of random population samples of 45–69-year-old men and women (n = 28 600) from Novosibirsk (Russia), Krakow (Poland) and six Czech towns, participating in the Health, Alcohol and Psychosocial factors In Eastern Europe (HAPIEE) study. Participants provided information on non-fatal injuries in the past 12 months, socio-economic characteristics, alcohol consumption and other covariates. Results: The period prevalence of non-fatal injuries in the last year among Czech, Russian and Polish men was 12.5, 9.4 and 5.3%, respectively; among women, the respective proportions were 9.9, 9.8 and 6.4%. Injury prevalence declined with age in men and increased with age in women. Higher injury prevalence was associated with being unmarried, material deprivation, higher drinking frequency and problem drinking. In the pooled data, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) for the highest versus lowest material deprivation category was 1.57 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.38–1.79]; for problem drinking, the OR was 1.44 (95% CI 1.23–1.69). Alcohol did not mediate the link between socio-economic status and injury. Conclusion: Non-fatal injuries were associated with material deprivation, other socio-economic characteristics and with alcohol. These results not only underscore the universality of the inequality phenomenon, but also suggest that the mediating role of alcohol in social differentials in non-fatal injury remains an unresolved issue.

Trends in major risk factors and mortality from main non-communicable diseases in Lithuania, 1985-2013.

BackgroundThis study aimed to assess the trends in the prevalence and levels of risk factors and mortality from main non-communicable diseases in the Lithuanian population aged 45–64 years during 1985 to 2013.MethodsData from four general population surveys conducted between 1985 and 2008 were used. All these surveys were carried out in Kaunas city and five randomly selected municipalities of Lithuania. Risk factors measured at each survey included regular smoking, overweight, obesity, arterial hypertension, and high levels of blood lipids. In total, data of 10,719 subjects (4,965 men and 5,754 women) aged 45–64 were analysed. Trends in standardized all-cause mortality and mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD), coronary heart disease (CHD), and malignant neoplasms were estimated for both sexes by joinpoint regression analysis.ResultsIn 1985–2013, some favourable trends were observed in the age-standardized mean levels and prevalence of risk factors and mortality from main non-communicable diseases in the Lithuanian middle-aged population. The mean values of blood lipids (with the exception of triglycerides) and the prevalence of dyslipidemias declined. In women, mean levels of systolic blood pressure and body mass index decreased, while in men, the levels of these factors increased. The prevalence of arterial hypertension and obesity increased in men. The proportion of obese women decreased. Smoking prevalence increased in both men and women. From 2007 to 2008, significant downward trends, which were steeper in women than in men, were observed in all-cause, CVD, and CHD mortality.ConclusionsDespite the favourable changes in some risk factors and mortality rates, the prevalence of risk factors and mortality from main non-communicable diseases in Lithuania are still high. This indicates the importance of the ongoing primary and secondary prevention and optimal treatment of these diseases.

Does Inclusion of Education and Marital Status Improve SCORE Performance in Central and Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union? Findings from MONICA and HAPIEE Cohorts

Background and Objective The SCORE scale predicts the 10-year risk of fatal atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD), based on conventional risk factors. The high-risk version of SCORE is recommended for Central and Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union (CEE/FSU), due to high CVD mortality rates in these countries. Given the pronounced social gradient in cardiovascular mortality in the region, it is important to consider social factors in the CVD risk prediction. We investigated whether adding education and marital status to SCORE benefits its prognostic performance in two sets of population-based CEE/FSU cohorts. Methods The WHO MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) cohorts from the Czech Republic, Poland (Warsaw and Tarnobrzeg), Lithuania (Kaunas), and Russia (Novosibirsk) were followed from the mid-1980s (577 atherosclerotic CVD deaths among 14,969 participants with non-missing data). The HAPIEE (Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial factors In Eastern Europe) study follows Czech, Polish (Krakow), and Russian (Novosibirsk) cohorts from 2002–05 (395 atherosclerotic CVD deaths in 19,900 individuals with non-missing data). Results In MONICA and HAPIEE, the high-risk SCORE ≥5% at baseline strongly and significantly predicted fatal CVD both before and after adjustment for education and marital status. After controlling for SCORE, lower education and non-married status were significantly associated with CVD mortality in some samples. SCORE extension by these additional risk factors only slightly improved indices of calibration and discrimination (integrated discrimination improvement <5% in men and ≤1% in women). Conclusion Extending SCORE by education and marital status failed to substantially improve its prognostic performance in population-based CEE/FSU cohorts.

Every unhealthy population is unhealthy in its own way; population risk assessment: common and specific challenges

In this issue, Manuel et al 1 suggest that multivariate risk algorithms, widely used by clinicians, have great potential for the assessment of population risk and optimisation of population-based health planning. We agree with this proposition, but argue that this algorithm-based approach needs to consider the local context, particularly when transferring the risk instruments derived for Western populations to non-Western settings. Traditionally, the examination of population risk has focused on the outcome component of the exposure–outcome relationship (often using historical estimates of disease incidence to predict future trends)—an approach which is, essentially, retrospective. However, true risk prediction should be prospective and provide a reliable estimate of future outcome probability, which is based on the currently observed exposure to multiple risk factors. The additional benefits of assessing population risk with the algorithms based on quantitative estimates of the exposure–outcome association, which can be used when reliable incidence data are unavailable, when the baseline risk varies …

The Prognostic Value of Family History for the Estimation of Cardiovascular Mortality Risk in Men: Results from a Long-Term Cohort Study in Lithuania.

Aim To evaluate the additional prognostic value of family history for the estimation of cardiovascular (CVD) mortality risk in middle-aged urban Lithuanian men. Methods The association between family history of CVD and the risk of CVD mortality was examined in a population-based cohort of 6,098 men enrolled during 1972–1974 and 1976–1980 in Kaunas, Lithuania. After up to 40 years of follow-up, 2,272 deaths from CVD and 1,482 deaths from coronary heart disease (CHD) were identified. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for CVD and CHD mortality. Results After adjustment for traditional CVD risk factors, the HR for CVD mortality was 1.24 (95% CI 1.09–1.42) and for CHD mortality 1.20 (1.02–1.42) in men with first-degree relatives having a history of myocardial infarction (MI), compared to men without positive family history. A significant effect on the risk of CVD and CHD mortality was also observed for the family history of sudden cardiac death and any CVD. Addition of family history of MI, sudden death, and any CVD to traditional CVD risk factors demonstrated modest improvement in the performance of Cox models for CVD and CHD mortality. Conclusions Family history of CVD is associated with a risk of CVD and CHD mortality significantly and independently of other risk factors in a middle-aged male population. Addition of family history to traditional CVD risk factors improves the prediction of CVD mortality and could be used for identification of high-risk individuals.

Inclusion of hazardous drinking does not improve the SCORE performance in men from Central and Eastern Europe: the findings from the HAPIEE cohorts

BackgroundThe SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation) scale uses conventional risk factors for the prediction of the 10-year risk of fatal atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD). The high-risk version of SCORE is recommended by the European Society of Cardiology for use in the populations of Central and Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union (CEE/FSU). Given the role of hazardous alcohol consumption as an important determinant of CVD mortality in CEE/FSU men, this study investigated whether adding hazardous drinking characteristics to the high-risk SCORE improves its prognostic performance in contemporary population-based male CEE/FSU cohorts.MethodsThe HAPIEE (Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial factors In Eastern Europe) study follows Czech (seven towns), Polish (Krakow), and Russian (Novosibirsk) cohorts from 2002–2005. In HAPIEE men (n = 8,927), 264 atherosclerotic cardiovascular deaths were registered over the median follow-up time of 6.2-8.1 years.ResultsIn HAPIEE men, the baseline levels of the high-risk SCORE ≥5% significantly predicted fatal CVD. After controlling for the high-risk SCORE, binge drinking (drinking ≥100 g of ethanol at least once a month) and problem drinking (≥2 positive answers to CAGE questionnaire) were inconsistently associated with fatal CVD. No marked improvement in calibration and discrimination was observed for the high-risk SCORE extended by these hazardous drinking indicators, and all values of integrated discrimination improvement were <0.5%.ConclusionsExtending the high-risk SCORE by hazardous drinking parameters failed to improve its prognostic performance across male CEE/FSU population samples. Our findings tentatively support the use of the original high-risk SCORE in male CEE/FSU populations. More research is needed on the potential use of hazardous drinking in cardiovascular risk prediction.

TOBACCO DEPENDENCE TREATMENT WITH NICOTINE REPLACEMENT THERAPY AS ONE OF THE METHODS FOR CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE RISK REDUCTION

Aim. To investigate efficacy and safety of nicotine chewing gum and inhaler in individuals trying to quit smoking. To assess expected reduction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and total mortality relative risks (RR). Material and methods. In this open, parallel study, 169 relatively healthy male smokers aged 18-60 years were randomly assigned to free choice vs admission of Nicorette gum (2/4 mg) or inhaler (10 mg). At baseline, all participants smoked ≥15 cig/d, for ≥3 years. The intervention phase lasted 3 months; follow-up evaluations were made at 3, 6 and 12 months after nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) initiation. Results. Twelve-month results were obtained for 152 subjects (response rate 89.9%). Point prevalence abstinence and reduction (smoking ≤50% of basic daily cigarette amount) rates were 19.7% and 35.5%, respectively. Neither abstinence, nor reduction rates depended on Nicorette form (gum vs inhaler), or on choice vs admission factor. The main predictors of long-term efficacy were nicotine dependence severity and contacts with other smokers. NRT was not associated with negative dynamics in objective health parameters (blood pressure, heart rate, ECG parameters, body weight, and body mass index) or self-evaluation of health. Both Nicorette forms seemed to be safe and well-tolerated. At 12 months, the expected mean RR reduction for CVD mortality reached 19%, for total mortality – 21%. Conclusion. In Russian clinical settings, NRT efficacy and safety are similar to that demonstrated in numerous international trials. NRT can be recommended as one of the methods of assistance to quit smoking and, therefore, for CVD risk reduction.