Olivier Chanel

Public-health impact of outdoor and traffic-related air pollution: a European assessment

BACKGROUND Air pollution contributes to mortality and morbidity. We estimated the impact of outdoor (total) and traffic-related air pollution on public health in Austria, France, and Switzerland. Attributable cases of morbidity and mortality were estimated. METHODS Epidemiology-based exposure-response functions for a 10 microg/m3 increase in particulate matter (PM10) were used to quantify the effects of air pollution. Cases attributable to air pollution were estimated for mortality (adults > or = 30 years), respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions (all ages), incidence of chronic bronchitis (adults > or = 25 years), bronchitis episodes in children (< 15 years), restricted activity days (adults > or = 20 years), and asthma attacks in adults and children. Population exposure (PM10) was modelled for each km2. The traffic-related fraction was estimated based on PM10 emission inventories. FINDINGS Air pollution caused 6% of total mortality or more than 40,000 attributable cases per year. About half of all mortality caused by air pollution was attributed to motorised traffic, accounting also for: more than 25,000 new cases of chronic bronchitis (adults); more than 290,000 episodes of bronchitis (children); more than 0.5 million asthma attacks; and more than 16 million person-days of restricted activities. INTERPRETATION This assessment estimates the public-health impacts of current patterns of air pollution. Although individual health risks of air pollution are relatively small, the public-health consequences are considerable. Traffic-related air pollution remains a key target for public-health action in Europe. Our results, which have also been used for economic valuation, should guide decisions on the assessment of environmental health-policy options.

Assessing the public health impacts of urban air pollution in 25 European cities: results of the Aphekom project.

INTRODUCTION The Aphekom project aimed to provide new, clear, and meaningful information on the health effects of air pollution in Europe. Among others, it assessed the health and monetary benefits of reducing short and long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) and ozone in 25 European cities. METHOD Health impact assessments were performed using routine health and air quality data, and a common methodology. Two scenarios were considered: a decrease of the air pollutant levels by a fixed amount and a decrease to the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines. Results were economically valued by using a willingness to pay approach for mortality and a cost of illness approach for morbidity. RESULTS In the 25 cities, the largest health burden was attributable to the impacts of chronic exposure to PM2.5. Complying with the WHO guideline of 10 μg/m(3) in annual mean would add up to 22 months of life expectancy at age 30, depending on the city, corresponding to a total of 19,000 deaths delayed. The associated monetary gain would total some €31 billion annually, including savings on health expenditures, absenteeism and intangible costs such as well-being, life expectancy and quality of life. CONCLUSION European citizens are still exposed to concentrations exceeding the WHO recommendations. Aphekom provided robust estimates confirming that reducing urban air pollution would result in significant health and monetary gains in Europe. This work is particularly relevant now when the current EU legislation is being revised for an update in 2013.

Is art market behaviour predictable

Abstract In this paper we look for relationships between art and financial markets through econometric methods. The main results indicate that financial markets influence the art market, with a lag of about one year, which seems plausible due to the relative sizes of both markets. The Vector Auto Regressive (V.A.R.) model shows that lagged financial variables help predicting art prices, even if the lag does not allow for systematic profits.

Air pollution interventions and their impact on public health

IntroductionNumerous epidemiological studies have found a link between air pollution and health. We are reviewing a collection of published intervention studies with particular focus on studies assessing both improvements in air quality and associated health effects.MethodsInterventions, defined as events aimed at reducing air pollution or where reductions occurred as a side effect, e.g. strikes, German reunification, from the 1960s onwards were considered for inclusion. This review is not a complete record of all existing air pollution interventions. In total, 28 studies published in English were selected based on a systematic search of internet databases.ResultsOverall air pollution interventions have succeeded at improving air quality. Consistently published evidence suggests that most of these interventions have been associated with health benefits, mainly by the way of reduced cardiovascular and/or respiratory mortality and/or morbidity. The decrease in mortality from the majority of the reviewed interventions has been estimated to exceed the expected predicted figures based on the estimates from time-series studies.ConclusionThere is consistent evidence that decreased air pollution levels following an intervention resulted in health benefits for the assessed population.

Modeling Starting Point Bias as Unobserved Heterogeneity in Contingent Valuation Surveys: An Application to Air Pollution

Up to now, the starting point bias has generally been considered to be a homogeneous phenomenon. In this article, we treat anchoring as an unobserved heterogeneous phenomenon. Our contribution is twofold. First, we show analytically and by way of simulations that assuming homogeneous anchoring can be hazardous and lead to misspecifications. Second, we propose an econometric model that starts with a dichotomous question and then uses an open-ended question. We finally apply our model to a contingent valuation survey on air quality. Our results suggest that how anchoring is modeled in empirical studies deserves more attention.

Impact of information on intentions to vaccinate in a potential epidemic: Swine-origin Influenza A (H1N1).

Vaccination campaigns to prevent the spread of epidemics are successful only if the targeted populations subscribe to the recommendations of health authorities. However, because compulsory vaccination is hardly conceivable in modern democracies, governments need to convince their populations through efficient and persuasive information campaigns. In the context of the swine-origin A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic, we use an interactive study among the general public in the South of France, with 175 participants, to explore what type of information can induce change in vaccination intentions at both aggregate and individual levels. We find that individual attitudes to vaccination are based on rational appraisal of the situation, and that it is information of a purely scientific nature that has the only significant positive effect on intention to vaccinate.

Does public opinion influence willingness-to-pay? Evidence from the field

Contingent valuation (CV) surveys have been criticized for assuming that respondents have well-defined preferences. Using an innovative field experiment dealing with a privatized public good, it is shown that respondents are not influenced by public opinion but are positively responsive to scientific information.

Monetary values for risk of death from air pollution exposure: a context-dependent scenario with a control for intra-familial altruism

We extend the individual dynamic model of lifetime resource allocation to assess the monetary value given to the increase in survival probabilities for every member of a household induced by improved air quality. We interpret this monetary value as VPF (value of a prevented fatality), which can also be expressed as a flow of discounted VOLY (value of life years) lost, and account for potential altruism towards other household members. We use a French air pollution contingent valuation survey that provides a description of the life-length reduction implied by a change in air pollution exposure. By privatising the public commodity air pollution, we succeed in ruling out any form of altruism (towards others living today and towards future generations) except altruism towards ones family. We estimate a mean VOLY of €2001140,000, a 30% premium for VOLY in perfect health w.r.t. average expected health status, and a mean VPF of €20011.45 million for the respondent, all context-specific. In addition, we find an inverted U-shaped relationship between his/her age and VOLY/VPF, and significant benevolence only towards children under 18.

Economic valuation of the mortality benefits of a regulation on SO2 in 20 European cities.

BACKGROUND Since the 1970s, legislation has led to progress in tackling several air pollutants. We quantify the annual monetary benefits resulting from reductions in mortality from the year 2000 onwards following the implementation of three European Commission regulations to reduce the sulphur content in liquid fuels for vehicles. METHODS We first compute premature deaths attributable to these implementations for 20 European cities in the Aphekom project by using a two-stage health impact assessment method. We then justify our choice to only consider mortality effects as short-term effects. We rely on European studies when selecting the central value of a life-year estimate (€ 2005 86 600) used to compute the monetary benefits for each of the cities. We also conduct an independent sensitivity analysis as well as an integrated uncertainty analysis that simultaneously accounts for uncertainties concerning epidemiology and economic valuation. RESULTS The implementation of these regulations is estimated to have postponed 2212 (95% confidence interval: 772-3663) deaths per year attributable to reductions in sulphur dioxide for the 20 European cities, from the year 2000 onwards. We obtained annual mortality benefits related to the implementation of the European regulation on sulphur dioxide of € 2005 191.6 million (95% confidence interval: € 2005 66.9-€ 2005 317.2). CONCLUSION Our approach is conservative in restricting to mortality effects and to short-term benefits only, thus only providing the lower-bound estimate. Our findings underline the health and monetary benefits to be obtained from implementing effective European policies on air pollution and ensuring compliance with them over time.

Can a Circular Payment Card Format Effectively Elicit Preferences? Evidence From a Survey on a Mandatory Health Insurance Scheme in Tunisia

BackgroundThe choice of elicitation format is a crucial but tricky aspect of stated preferences surveys. It affects not only the quantity and quality of the information collected on respondents’ willingness to pay (WTP) but also the potential errors/biases that prevent their true WTP from being observed.ObjectivesWe propose a new elicitation mechanism, the circular payment card (CPC), and show that it helps overcome the drawbacks of the standard payment card (PC) format. It uses a visual pie chart representation without start or end points: respondents spin the circular card in any direction until they find the section that best matches their true WTP.MethodsWe performed a contingent valuation survey regarding a mandatory health insurance scheme in Tunisia, a middle-income country. Respondents were randomly allocated into one of three subgroups and their WTP was elicited using one of three formats: open-ended (OE), standard PC and the new CPC. We compared the elicited WTP.ResultsWe found significant differences in unconditional and conditional analyses. Our empirical results consistently indicated that the OE and standard PC formats led to significantly lower WTP than the CPC format.ConclusionOverall, our results are encouraging and suggest CPC could be an effective alternative format to elicit ‘true’ WTP.