Mathilde Pascal

Mortality in 13 French Cities During the August 2003 Heat Wave

We observed the daily trend in mortality rates during the 2003 heat wave in 13 of Frances largest cities. Mortality data were collected from July 25 to September 15 each year from 1999 through 2003. The conjunction of a maximum temperature of 35 degrees C and a minimum temperature of 20 degrees C was exceptional in 7 cities. An excess mortality rate was observed in the 13 towns, with disparities from +4% (Lille) to +142% (Paris).

Assessing the public health impacts of urban air pollution in 25 European cities: results of the Aphekom project.

INTRODUCTION The Aphekom project aimed to provide new, clear, and meaningful information on the health effects of air pollution in Europe. Among others, it assessed the health and monetary benefits of reducing short and long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) and ozone in 25 European cities. METHOD Health impact assessments were performed using routine health and air quality data, and a common methodology. Two scenarios were considered: a decrease of the air pollutant levels by a fixed amount and a decrease to the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines. Results were economically valued by using a willingness to pay approach for mortality and a cost of illness approach for morbidity. RESULTS In the 25 cities, the largest health burden was attributable to the impacts of chronic exposure to PM2.5. Complying with the WHO guideline of 10 μg/m(3) in annual mean would add up to 22 months of life expectancy at age 30, depending on the city, corresponding to a total of 19,000 deaths delayed. The associated monetary gain would total some €31 billion annually, including savings on health expenditures, absenteeism and intangible costs such as well-being, life expectancy and quality of life. CONCLUSION European citizens are still exposed to concentrations exceeding the WHO recommendations. Aphekom provided robust estimates confirming that reducing urban air pollution would result in significant health and monetary gains in Europe. This work is particularly relevant now when the current EU legislation is being revised for an update in 2013.

Short-term associations between fine and coarse particulate matter and hospitalizations in Southern Europe: results from the MED-PARTICLES project.

Background: Evidence on the short-term effects of fine and coarse particles on morbidity in Europe is scarce and inconsistent. Objectives: We aimed to estimate the association between daily concentrations of fine and coarse particles with hospitalizations for cardiovascular and respiratory conditions in eight Southern European cities, within the MED-PARTICLES project. Methods: City-specific Poisson models were fitted to estimate associations of daily concentrations of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μm (PM2.5), ≤ 10 μm (PM10), and their difference (PM2.5–10) with daily counts of emergency hospitalizations for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. We derived pooled estimates from random-effects meta-analysis and evaluated the robustness of results to co-pollutant exposure adjustment and model specification. Pooled concentration–response curves were estimated using a meta-smoothing approach. Results: We found significant associations between all PM fractions and cardiovascular admissions. Increases of 10 μg/m3 in PM2.5, 6.3 μg/m3 in PM2.5–10, and 14.4 μg/m3 in PM10 (lag 0–1 days) were associated with increases in cardiovascular admissions of 0.51% (95% CI: 0.12, 0.90%), 0.46% (95% CI: 0.10, 0.82%), and 0.53% (95% CI: 0.06, 1.00%), respectively. Stronger associations were estimated for respiratory hospitalizations, ranging from 1.15% (95% CI: 0.21, 2.11%) for PM10 to 1.36% (95% CI: 0.23, 2.49) for PM2.5 (lag 0–5 days). Conclusions: PM2.5 and PM2.5–10 were positively associated with cardiovascular and respiratory admissions in eight Mediterranean cities. Information on the short-term effects of different PM fractions on morbidity in Southern Europe will be useful to inform European policies on air quality standards. Citation: Stafoggia M, Samoli E, Alessandrini E, Cadum E, Ostro B, Berti G, Faustini A, Jacquemin B, Linares C, Pascal M, Randi G, Ranzi A, Stivanello E, Forastiere F, the MED-PARTICLES Study Group. 2013. Short-term associations between fine and coarse particulate matter and hospitalizations in Southern Europe: results from the MED-PARTICLES project. Environ Health Perspect 121:1026–1033; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1206151

Heat-health warning systems: a comparison of the predictive capacity of different approaches to identifying dangerously hot days.

OBJECTIVES We compared the ability of several heat-health warning systems to predict days of heat-associated mortality using common data sets. METHODS Heat-health warning systems initiate emergency public health interventions once forecasts have identified weather conditions to breach predetermined trigger levels. We examined 4 commonly used trigger-setting approaches: (1) synoptic classification, (2) epidemiologic assessment of the temperature-mortality relationship, (3) temperature-humidity index, and (4) physiologic classification. We applied each approach in Chicago, Illinois; London, United Kingdom; Madrid, Spain; and Montreal, Canada, to identify days expected to be associated with the highest heat-related mortality. RESULTS We found little agreement across the approaches in which days were identified as most dangerous. In general, days identified by temperature-mortality assessment were associated with the highest excess mortality. CONCLUSIONS Triggering of alert days and ultimately the initiation of emergency responses by a heat-health warning system varies significantly across approaches adopted to establish triggers.

Air pollution interventions and their impact on public health

IntroductionNumerous epidemiological studies have found a link between air pollution and health. We are reviewing a collection of published intervention studies with particular focus on studies assessing both improvements in air quality and associated health effects.MethodsInterventions, defined as events aimed at reducing air pollution or where reductions occurred as a side effect, e.g. strikes, German reunification, from the 1960s onwards were considered for inclusion. This review is not a complete record of all existing air pollution interventions. In total, 28 studies published in English were selected based on a systematic search of internet databases.ResultsOverall air pollution interventions have succeeded at improving air quality. Consistently published evidence suggests that most of these interventions have been associated with health benefits, mainly by the way of reduced cardiovascular and/or respiratory mortality and/or morbidity. The decrease in mortality from the majority of the reviewed interventions has been estimated to exceed the expected predicted figures based on the estimates from time-series studies.ConclusionThere is consistent evidence that decreased air pollution levels following an intervention resulted in health benefits for the assessed population.

Blood lead levels in the adult population living in France the French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS 2006-2007)

BACKGROUND The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) was conducted in order to describe food consumption and levels of various biomarkers in the general population. In this paper, we aimed to assess the distribution of blood lead levels (BLL) in the adult population living in France. METHOD ENNS was a cross-sectional survey carried out in the general population. Participants (18-74years of age) were sampled using a three-stage probability design stratified by geographical areas and degrees of urbanization. Collected data included biochemical samples, anthropometric measurements, socio-demographic characteristics, and environmental and occupational exposure. RESULTS In 2006/2007, 2029 adults were included in the survey on lead. The blood lead geometric mean (GM) in the population living in France was 25.7μg/L [24.9-26.5]. The overall prevalence of elevated BLL (>100μg/L) was 1.7% [1.1-2.3%]. Levels were significantly higher in males than in females, and increased with age, smoking status and alcohol consumption. Other factors significantly associated with BLL were leisure activities, occupational category, age of housing unit, birth place and shellfish/crustacean consumption. CONCLUSION For the first time a survey provides national estimates of BLL for the adult population in France. Comparison with results from a previous study among men aged 18-28years showed that the GM dropped more than 60% in the last 10years. The distribution of BLL in France was quite similar to that observed in other European countries.

Changes in the effect of heat on mortality in the last 20 years in nine European cities. Results from the PHASE project

The European project PHASE aims to evaluate patterns of change in the temperature–mortality relationship and in the number of deaths attributable to heat in nine European cities in two periods, before and after summer 2003 (1996–2002 and 2004–2010). We performed age-specific Poisson regression models separately in the two periods, controlling for seasonality, air pollution and time trends. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the Relative Risks of daily mortality for increases in mean temperature from the 75th to 99th percentile of the summer distribution for each city. In the recent period, a reduction in the mortality risk associated to heat was observed only in Athens, Rome and Paris, especially among the elderly. Furthermore, in terms of heat-attributable mortality, 985, 787 and 623 fewer deaths were estimated, respectively, in the three cities. In Helsinki and Stockholm, there is a suggestion of increased heat effect. Noteworthy is that an effect of heat was still present in the recent years in all cities, ranging from +11% to +35%. In Europe, considering the warming observed in recent decades and population ageing, effective intervention measures should be promoted across countries, especially targeting vulnerable subgroups of the population with lower adaptive resources.

Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?

Extreme heat events are associated with spikes in mortality, yet death rates are on average highest during the coldest months of the year. Under the assumption that most winter excess mortality is due to cold temperature, many previous studies have concluded that winter mortality will substantially decline in a warming climate. We analyzed whether and to what extent cold temperatures are associated with excess winter mortality across multiple cities and over multiple years within individual cities, using daily temperature and mortality data from 36 US cities (1985-2006) and 3 French cities (1971-2007). Comparing across cities, we found that excess winter mortality did not depend on seasonal temperature range, and was no lower in warmer vs. colder cities, suggesting that temperature is not a key driver of winter excess mortality. Using regression models within monthly strata, we found that variability in daily mortality within cities was not strongly influenced by winter temperature. Finally we found that inadequate control for seasonality in analyses of the effects of cold temperatures led to spuriously large assumed cold effects, and erroneous attribution of winter mortality to cold temperatures. Our findings suggest that reductions in cold-related mortality under warming climate may be much smaller than some have assumed. This should be of interest to researchers and policy makers concerned with projecting future health effects of climate change and developing relevant adaptation strategies.

Projections of temperature-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios

Summary Background Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. Methods We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature–mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990–2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. Findings Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090–99 compared with 2010–19 ranging from −1·2% (empirical 95% CI −3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to −0·1% (−2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (−3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (−4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet. Interpretation This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks. Funding UK Medical Research Council.

Association between long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality in France: A 25-year follow-up study

INTRODUCTION Long-term exposure to air pollution (AP) has been shown to have an impact on mortality in numerous countries, but since 2005 no data exists for France. OBJECTIVES We analyzed the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality at the individual level in a large French cohort followed from 1989 to 2013. METHODS The study sample consisted of 20,327 adults working at the French national electricity and gas company EDF-GDF. Annual exposure to PM10, PM10–2.5, PM2.5, NO2, O3, SO2, and benzene was assessed for the place of residence of participants using a chemistry-transport model and taking residential history into account. Hazard ratios were estimated using a Cox proportional-hazards regression model, adjusted for selected individual and contextual risk factors. Hazard ratios were computed for an interquartile range (IQR) increase in air pollutant concentrations. RESULTS The cohort recorded 1967 non-accidental deaths. Long-term exposures to b aseline PM2.5, PM10-25, NO2 and benzene were associated with an increase in non-accidental mortality (Hazard Ratio, HR = 1.09; 95% CI: 0.99, 1.20 per 5.9 μg/m3, PM10-25; HR=1.09; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.15 per 2.2 μg/m3, NO2: HR=1.14; 95% CI: 0.99, 1.31 per 19.3 μg/m3 and benzene: HR=1.10; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.22 per 1.7 μg/m3).The strongest association was found for PM10: HR = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.25 per 7.8 μg/m3. PM10, PM10-25 and SO2 were associated with non-accidental mortality when using time varying exposure. No significant associations were observed between air pollution and cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. CONCLUSION Long-term exposure to fine particles, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide and benzene is associated with an increased risk of non-accidental mortality in France. Our results strengthen existing evidence that outdoor air pollution is a significant environmental risk factor for mortality. Due to the limited sample size and the nature of our study (occupational), further investigations are needed in France with a larger representative population sample.