Omar Masera

Modeling carbon sequestration in afforestation, agroforestry and forest management projects: the CO2FIX V.2 approach

Abstract The paper describes the Version 2 of the CO2FIX (CO2FIX V.2) model, a user-friendly tool for dynamically estimating the carbon sequestration potential of forest management, agroforesty and afforestation projects. CO2FIX V.2 is a multi-cohort ecosystem-level model based on carbon accounting of forest stands, including forest biomass, soils and products. Carbon stored in living biomass is estimated with a forest cohort model that allows for competition, natural mortality, logging, and mortality due to logging damage. Soil carbon is modeled using five stock pools, three for litter and two for humus. The dynamics of carbon stored in wood products is simulated with a set of pools for short-, medium- and long-lived products, and includes processing efficiency, re-use of by-products, recycling, and disposal forms. The CO2FIX V.2 model estimates total carbon balance of alternative management regimes in both even and uneven-aged forests, and thus has a wide applicability for both temperate and tropical conditions. Results for the model testing and validation in selected temperate and tropical forest management systems are presented and discussed.

Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment

Bioenergy deployment offers significant potential for climate change mitigation, but also carries considerable risks. In this review, we bring together perspectives of various communities involved in the research and regulation of bioenergy deployment in the context of climate change mitigation: Land‐use and energy experts, land‐use and integrated assessment modelers, human geographers, ecosystem researchers, climate scientists and two different strands of life‐cycle assessment experts. We summarize technological options, outline the state‐of‐the‐art knowledge on various climate effects, provide an update on estimates of technical resource potential and comprehensively identify sustainability effects. Cellulosic feedstocks, increased end‐use efficiency, improved land carbon‐stock management and residue use, and, when fully developed, BECCS appear as the most promising options, depending on development costs, implementation, learning, and risk management. Combined heat and power, efficient biomass cookstoves and small‐scale power generation for rural areas can help to promote energy access and sustainable development, along with reduced emissions. We estimate the sustainable technical potential as up to 100 EJ: high agreement; 100–300 EJ: medium agreement; above 300 EJ: low agreement. Stabilization scenarios indicate that bioenergy may supply from 10 to 245 EJ yr−1 to global primary energy supply by 2050. Models indicate that, if technological and governance preconditions are met, large‐scale deployment (>200 EJ), together with BECCS, could help to keep global warming below 2° degrees of preindustrial levels; but such high deployment of land‐intensive bioenergy feedstocks could also lead to detrimental climate effects, negatively impact ecosystems, biodiversity and livelihoods. The integration of bioenergy systems into agriculture and forest landscapes can improve land and water use efficiency and help address concerns about environmental impacts. We conclude that the high variability in pathways, uncertainties in technological development and ambiguity in political decision render forecasts on deployment levels and climate effects very difficult. However, uncertainty about projections should not preclude pursuing beneficial bioenergy options.

Evaluating the sustainability of complex socio-environmental systems. the MESMIS framework

Abstract Sustainable development has become a leading target of scientific research and policy agenda. In the context of natural resource management, understanding and evaluating the performance of complex socio-environmental systems has become a challenge, and the design of more sustainable alternatives is a driving need. In addition, there is a need to translate the general principles of sustainability into operational definitions and practices. This paper examines key methodological issues in the selection, transformation and aggregation of economic, environmental and social indicators for sustainability analysis. Specific reference is given to the MESMIS approach, a systemic, participatory, interdisciplinary and flexible framework for sustainability evaluation. The MESMIS framework has been developed by a multi-institutional team in Mexico and validated through its application to more than 20 case studies in Mexico and Latin America. The MESMIS operative structure is a six step cycle. The first three steps are devoted to the characterisation of the systems, the identification of critical points and the selection of specific indicators for the environmental, social and economic dimensions of sustainability. In the last three steps, the information obtained by means of the indicators is integrated through mixed (qualitative and quantitative) techniques and multicriteria analysis, so as to obtain a value judgement about the resource management systems and to provide suggestions and insights aimed at improving their socio-environmental profile. MESMIS attempts to generate a cyclic process which, by effectively integrating the evaluation into the decision making process, improves the likelihood of success in the design of alternatives and the implementation of development projects.

Community forest management in Mexico: carbon mitigation and biodiversity conservation through rural development

Abstract Forest management is an important carbon mitigation strategy for developing countries. As demonstrated by the case of Mexico, community forest management is especially effective because it offers tangible local benefits while conserving forests and sequestering carbon. Community forestry receives minimal government support now, but the clean development mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol could leverage additional resources to promote the approach in Mexico and elsewhere. We argue that adequately designed and implemented, community forestry management projects can avoid deforestation and restore forest cover and forest density. They comprise promising options for providing both carbon mitigation and sustainable rural development. These kinds of projects should be included in the CDM.

Improved biomass stove intervention in rural Mexico: impact on the respiratory health of women.

RATIONALE Exposure to biomass smoke has been related to adverse health effects. In Mexico, one household in four still cooks with biomass fuel, but there has been no evaluation of the health impact of reducing indoor air pollution. OBJECTIVES To evaluate the health impact of the introduction of an improved biomass stove (Patsari; Interdisciplinary Group for Appropriate Rural Technology [GIRA], Patzcuaro, Mexico) in Mexican women. METHODS A randomized controlled trial was conducted in the Central Mexican state of Michoacán. Households were randomized to receive the Patsari stove or keep their traditional open fire. A total of 552 women were followed with monthly visits over 10 months to assess stove use, inquire about respiratory and other symptoms, and obtain lung function measurements. Statistical analysis was conducted using longitudinal models. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS Adherence to the intervention was low (50%). Women who reported using the Patsari stove most of the time compared with those using the open fire had significantly lower risk of respiratory symptoms (relative risk [RR], 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62-0.95 for cough and RR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.11-0.77 for wheezing) adjusted for confounders. Similar results were found for other respiratory symptoms as well as for eye discomfort, headache, and back pain. Actual use of the Patsari stove was associated with a lower FEV(1) decline (31 ml) compared with the open fire use (62 ml) over 1 year of follow-up (P = 0.012) for women 20 years of age and older, adjusting for confounders. CONCLUSIONS The use of the Patsari stove was significantly associated with a reduction of symptoms and of lung function decline comparable to smoking cessation.

CARBON EMISSIONS FROM MEXICAN FORESTS: CURRENT SITUATION AND LONG-TERM SCENARIOS

Estimates of carbon emissions from the forest sector in Mexico are derived for the year 1985 and for two contrasting scenarios in 2025. The analysis covers both tropical and temperate closed forests. In the mid-1980s, approximately 804,000 ha/year of closed forests suffered major perturbations, of which 668,000 ha was deforestation. Seventy-five percent of total deforestation is concentrated in tropical forests. The resulting annual carbon balance from land-use change is estimated at 67.0 × 106 tons/year, which lead to net emissions of 52.3 × 106 tons/year accounting for the carbon uptake in restoration plantations and degraded forest lands. This last figure represents approximately 40% of the countrys estimated annual total carbon emissions for 1985–1987. The annual carbon balance from the forest sector in 2025 is expected to decline to 28.0 × 106 t in the reference scenario and to become negative (i.e., a carbon sink), 62.0 × 106 t in the policy scenario. A number of policy changes are identified that would help achieve the carbon sequestration potential identified in this last scenario.

Performance testing for monitoring improved biomass stove interventions: experiences of the Household Energy and Health Project (1)

This paper describes the monitoring and evaluation of three improved cookstove dissemination projects implemented between 2004 and 2006 by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in India and Mexico. The projects assessed stove performance using lab-based water boiling tests (WBTs), which yield a number of performance indicators including time to boil water, specific fuel consumption, and energy efficiency when the stove is operated at both high and low power output. They also conducted field-based kitchen performance tests (KPTs), which yield daily per capita fuel consumption in real cooking conditions. In addition, one NGO utilized a controlled cooking test, which combined elements of lab- and field-based tests. In all cases, improved cookstoves (ICSs) were compared to local traditional cookstoves (TCSs). The results of the WBTs were mixed. Although the improved stoves generally showed some improvement in efficiency for the low-power simmering phases, the stoves were less efficient than traditional stoves in high-power water-boiling phases. The results from the KPTs were much less ambiguous. Three ICS models were tested for fuel consumption during real household use. All ICSs showed statistically significant reductions (p < 0.05) in average daily per capita fuel use ranging from 19 to 67 %. We also explore the correlations between the outcomes in lab-based tests and field-based tests in order to understand the relationships between the two assessment methods. Only fuel consumption in the low-power phase of the WBT showed a strong correlation with fuel consumption in the field (r 2 = 0.83, p = 0.01). We discuss the implications of this association as well as the other outcomes and present some policy recommendations for monitoring and evaluation of large-scale stove interventions.

Monitoring and evaluation of improved biomass cookstove programs for indoor air quality and stove performance: conclusions from the Household Energy and Health Project

Standardized techniques for monitoring and evaluating (M&E) changes in indoor air quality and stove fuel performance were developed and deployed in two NGO-led programs to disseminate improved cookstoves (ICSs) in India and one in Mexico. This paper describes the objectives and characteristics of these monitoring and evaluation methods and how they were deployed. The results showed major and mostly statistically significant improvements in 48-hour indoor air pollution concentrations in those households using the stoves one year after introduction. Kitchen levels of carbon monoxide reduced 30-70 % and concentrations of small particles reduced 25-65 %. Results for stove performance were mixed, with some stoves achieving improvement in one or another of the short-term metrics that are part of the water boiling test (WBT) used to evaluate stoves in laboratory (controlled) settings. The kitchen performance test, which measures fuel use in households under actual use, was less easily conducted because of high variation and difficult field logistics. The results are more promising, however, with statistically significant reductions in fuel use per person ranging from about 20 to 67 %. From the results, it also seems clear that several indicators of stove performance derived from the WBT are not good predictors of actual fuel use and thus should be confined to evaluations during the design stage of stove development. In two of the sites, the reductions in pollution roughly matched those in fuel use, although in the third, indoor air pollution may have reduced a bit more. This indicates perhaps that for all the monitored stoves, much or all of the benefits of each type came from improving the heat transfer into the pots and not from either increased combustion efficiency of the fires or stove-venting

Impact of Patsari improved cookstoves on indoor air quality in Michoacán, Mexico

Little quantitative monitoring and evaluation of the impacts of improved stoves have been performed in Mexico. Grupo Interdisciplinario de Tecnologia Rural Apropiada (GIRA) has recently disseminated 4,000 improved Patsari cookstoves, most of them in the Purepecha region of Michoacan state, Mexico. In paired comparisons in a subset of kitchens in a single community before and after installation of an improved Patsari cookstove, 48-hour average kitchen concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) were reduced by 66 % (n = 32) and 67 % (n = 33), respectively. Kitchens that had more elevated concentrations during the baseline measurements demonstrated more dramatic reductions, as the overall variability was reduced when the improved stove was used. Thus, the Patsari stove provides an effective means of reducing kitchen air pollution and potential benefits of installing these stoves are considerable. Although requiring significant additional resources, the Household Energy and Health (HEH) Project catalyzed a much broader investigation into health, climate, environment and societal impacts of Patsari stoves, which has had a greater impact on public policy than the direct impact of the number of improved stoves installed in these communities.

Reduction in personal exposures to particulate matter and carbon monoxide as a result of the installation of a Patsari improved cook stove in Michoacan Mexico

UNLABELLED The impact of an improved wood burning stove (Patsari) in reducing personal exposures and indoor concentrations of particulate matter (PM(2.5)) and carbon monoxide (CO) was evaluated in 60 homes in a rural community of Michoacan, Mexico. Average PM(2.5) 24-h personal exposure was 0.29 mg/m(3) and mean 48-h kitchen concentration was 1.269 mg/m(3) for participating women using the traditional open fire (fogon). If these concentrations are typical of rural conditions in Mexico, a large fraction of the population is chronically exposed to levels of pollution far higher than ambient concentrations found by the Mexican government to be harmful to human health. Installation of an improved Patsari stove in these homes resulted in 74% reduction in median 48-h PM(2.5) concentrations in kitchens and 35% reduction in median 24-h PM(2.5) personal exposures. Corresponding reductions in CO were 77% and 78% for median 48-h kitchen concentrations and median 24-h personal exposures, respectively. The relationship between reductions in median kitchen concentrations and reductions in median personal exposures not only changed for different pollutants, but also differed between traditional and improved stove type, and by stove adoption category. If these reductions are typical, significant bias in the relationship between reductions in particle concentrations and reductions in health impacts may result, if reductions in kitchen concentrations are used as a proxy for personal exposure reductions when evaluating stove interventions. In addition, personal exposure reductions for CO may not reflect similar reductions for PM(2.5). This implies that PM(2.5) personal exposure measurements should be collected or indoor measurements should be combined with better time-activity estimates, which would more accurately reflect the contributions of indoor concentrations to personal exposures. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS Installation of improved cookstoves may result in significant reductions in indoor concentrations of carbon monoxide and fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)), with concurrent but lower reductions in personal exposures. Significant errors may result if reductions in kitchen concentrations are used as a proxy for personal exposure reductions when evaluating stove interventions in epidemiological investigations. Similarly, time microenvironment activity models in these rural homes do not provide robust estimates of individual exposures due to the large spatial heterogeneity in pollutant concentrations and the lack of resolution of time activity diaries to capture movement through these microenvironments.