Omar

Effects of Hypothermia for Perinatal Asphyxia on Childhood Outcomes

BACKGROUND In the Total Body Hypothermia for Neonatal Encephalopathy Trial (TOBY), newborns with asphyxial encephalopathy who received hypothermic therapy had improved neurologic outcomes at 18 months of age, but it is uncertain whether such therapy results in longer-term neurocognitive benefits. METHODS We randomly assigned 325 newborns with asphyxial encephalopathy who were born at a gestational age of 36 weeks or more to receive standard care alone (control) or standard care with hypothermia to a rectal temperature of 33 to 34°C for 72 hours within 6 hours after birth. We evaluated the neurocognitive function of these children at 6 to 7 years of age. The primary outcome of this analysis was the frequency of survival with an IQ score of 85 or higher. RESULTS A total of 75 of 145 children (52%) in the hypothermia group versus 52 of 132 (39%) in the control group survived with an IQ score of 85 or more (relative risk, 1.31; P=0.04). The proportions of children who died were similar in the hypothermia group and the control group (29% and 30%, respectively). More children in the hypothermia group than in the control group survived without neurologic abnormalities (65 of 145 [45%] vs. 37 of 132 [28%]; relative risk, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.15 to 2.22). Among survivors, children in the hypothermia group, as compared with those in the control group, had significant reductions in the risk of cerebral palsy (21% vs. 36%, P=0.03) and the risk of moderate or severe disability (22% vs. 37%, P=0.03); they also had significantly better motor-function scores. There was no significant between-group difference in parental assessments of childrens health status and in results on 10 of 11 psychometric tests. CONCLUSIONS Moderate hypothermia after perinatal asphyxia resulted in improved neurocognitive outcomes in middle childhood. (Funded by the United Kingdom Medical Research Council and others; TOBY ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01092637.).

Developing risk prediction models for type 2 diabetes: a systematic review of methodology and reporting.

BackgroundThe World Health Organisation estimates that by 2030 there will be approximately 350 million people with type 2 diabetes. Associated with renal complications, heart disease, stroke and peripheral vascular disease, early identification of patients with undiagnosed type 2 diabetes or those at an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes is an important challenge. We sought to systematically review and critically assess the conduct and reporting of methods used to develop risk prediction models for predicting the risk of having undiagnosed (prevalent) or future risk of developing (incident) type 2 diabetes in adults.MethodsWe conducted a systematic search of PubMed and EMBASE databases to identify studies published before May 2011 that describe the development of models combining two or more variables to predict the risk of prevalent or incident type 2 diabetes. We extracted key information that describes aspects of developing a prediction model including study design, sample size and number of events, outcome definition, risk predictor selection and coding, missing data, model-building strategies and aspects of performance.ResultsThirty-nine studies comprising 43 risk prediction models were included. Seventeen studies (44%) reported the development of models to predict incident type 2 diabetes, whilst 15 studies (38%) described the derivation of models to predict prevalent type 2 diabetes. In nine studies (23%), the number of events per variable was less than ten, whilst in fourteen studies there was insufficient information reported for this measure to be calculated. The number of candidate risk predictors ranged from four to sixty-four, and in seven studies it was unclear how many risk predictors were considered. A method, not recommended to select risk predictors for inclusion in the multivariate model, using statistical significance from univariate screening was carried out in eight studies (21%), whilst the selection procedure was unclear in ten studies (26%). Twenty-one risk prediction models (49%) were developed by categorising all continuous risk predictors. The treatment and handling of missing data were not reported in 16 studies (41%).ConclusionsWe found widespread use of poor methods that could jeopardise model development, including univariate pre-screening of variables, categorisation of continuous risk predictors and poor handling of missing data. The use of poor methods affects the reliability of the prediction model and ultimately compromises the accuracy of the probability estimates of having undiagnosed type 2 diabetes or the predicted risk of developing type 2 diabetes. In addition, many studies were characterised by a generally poor level of reporting, with many key details to objectively judge the usefulness of the models often omitted.

External validation of multivariable prediction models: a systematic review of methodological conduct and reporting

BackgroundBefore considering whether to use a multivariable (diagnostic or prognostic) prediction model, it is essential that its performance be evaluated in data that were not used to develop the model (referred to as external validation). We critically appraised the methodological conduct and reporting of external validation studies of multivariable prediction models.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review of articles describing some form of external validation of one or more multivariable prediction models indexed in PubMed core clinical journals published in 2010. Study data were extracted in duplicate on design, sample size, handling of missing data, reference to the original study developing the prediction models and predictive performance measures.Results11,826 articles were identified and 78 were included for full review, which described the evaluation of 120 prediction models. in participant data that were not used to develop the model. Thirty-three articles described both the development of a prediction model and an evaluation of its performance on a separate dataset, and 45 articles described only the evaluation of an existing published prediction model on another dataset. Fifty-seven percent of the prediction models were presented and evaluated as simplified scoring systems. Sixteen percent of articles failed to report the number of outcome events in the validation datasets. Fifty-four percent of studies made no explicit mention of missing data. Sixty-seven percent did not report evaluating model calibration whilst most studies evaluated model discrimination. It was often unclear whether the reported performance measures were for the full regression model or for the simplified models.ConclusionsThe vast majority of studies describing some form of external validation of a multivariable prediction model were poorly reported with key details frequently not presented. The validation studies were characterised by poor design, inappropriate handling and acknowledgement of missing data and one of the most key performance measures of prediction models i.e. calibration often omitted from the publication. It may therefore not be surprising that an overwhelming majority of developed prediction models are not used in practice, when there is a dearth of well-conducted and clearly reported (external validation) studies describing their performance on independent participant data.

A systematic review finds prediction models for chronic kidney disease were poorly reported and often developed using inappropriate methods.

BACKGROUND Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global health concern that is increasing mainly as the result of increasing incidences of diabetes and hypertension. Furthermore, if left untreated, individuals with CKD may progress to end-stage kidney failure. Identifying individuals with undiagnosed CKD or those who are at an increased risk of developing CKD or progressing to end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) is therefore an important challenge. We sought to systematically review and critically assess the conduct and reporting of methods used to develop risk prediction models for predicting the risk of having undiagnosed (prevalent) or future risk of developing (incident) CKD or end-stage kidney failure in adults. METHODS We conducted a systematic search of PubMed database to identify studies published up until September 2011 that describe the development of models combining two or more variables to predict the risk of prevalent or incident CKD or ESKD. We extracted key information that describes aspects of developing a prediction model, including the study design, data quality, sample size and number of events, outcome definition, risk predictor selection and coding, missing data, model-building strategies, and aspects of performance. RESULTS Eleven studies describing the development of 14 prediction models were included. Eight studies reported the development of 11 models to predict incident CKD or ESKD, whereas 3 studies developed models for prevalent CKD. A total of 97 candidate risk predictors were considered, and 43 different risk predictors featured in the 14 prediction models. A method, not recommended to select risk predictors for inclusion in the multivariate model, using statistical significance from univariate screening was carried out in six studies. Missing data were frequently poorly handled and reported with no mention of missing data in four studies; 4 studies explicitly excluded individuals with missing data, and only 2 studies used multiple imputation to replace missing values. CONCLUSION We found that prediction models for chronic kidney were often developed using inappropriate methods and were generally poorly reported. Using poor methods can affect the predictive ability of the models, whereas inadequate reporting hinders an objective evaluation of the potential usefulness of the model.

Moderate hypothermia within 6 h of birth plus inhaled xenon versus moderate hypothermia alone after birth asphyxia (TOBY-Xe): a proof-of-concept, open-label, randomised controlled trial

Summary Background Moderate cooling after birth asphyxia is associated with substantial reductions in death and disability, but additional therapies might provide further benefit. We assessed whether the addition of xenon gas, a promising novel therapy, after the initiation of hypothermia for birth asphyxia would result in further improvement. Methods Total Body hypothermia plus Xenon (TOBY-Xe) was a proof-of-concept, randomised, open-label, parallel-group trial done at four intensive-care neonatal units in the UK. Eligible infants were 36–43 weeks of gestational age, had signs of moderate to severe encephalopathy and moderately or severely abnormal background activity for at least 30 min or seizures as shown by amplitude-integrated EEG (aEEG), and had one of the following: Apgar score of 5 or less 10 min after birth, continued need for resuscitation 10 min after birth, or acidosis within 1 h of birth. Participants were allocated in a 1:1 ratio by use of a secure web-based computer-generated randomisation sequence within 12 h of birth to cooling to a rectal temperature of 33·5°C for 72 h (standard treatment) or to cooling in combination with 30% inhaled xenon for 24 h started immediately after randomisation. The primary outcomes were reduction in lactate to N-acetyl aspartate ratio in the thalamus and in preserved fractional anisotropy in the posterior limb of the internal capsule, measured with magnetic resonance spectroscopy and MRI, respectively, within 15 days of birth. The investigator assessing these outcomes was masked to allocation. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00934700, and with ISRCTN, as ISRCTN08886155. Findings The study was done from Jan 31, 2012, to Sept 30, 2014. We enrolled 92 infants, 46 of whom were randomly assigned to cooling only and 46 to xenon plus cooling. 37 infants in the cooling only group and 41 in the cooling plus xenon group underwent magnetic resonance assessments and were included in the analysis of the primary outcomes. We noted no significant differences in lactate to N-acetyl aspartate ratio in the thalamus (geometric mean ratio 1·09, 95% CI 0·90 to 1·32) or fractional anisotropy (mean difference −0·01, 95% CI −0·03 to 0·02) in the posterior limb of the internal capsule between the two groups. Nine infants died in the cooling group and 11 in the xenon group. Two adverse events were reported in the xenon group: subcutaneous fat necrosis and transient desaturation during the MRI. No serious adverse events were recorded. Interpretation Administration of xenon within the delayed timeframe used in this trial is feasible and apparently safe, but is unlikely to enhance the neuroprotective effect of cooling after birth asphyxia. Funding UK Medical Research Council.

A systematic review of the effect of red blood cell transfusion on mortality: evidence from large-scale observational studies published between 2006 and 2010

Objective To carry out a systematic review of recently published large-scale observational studies assessing the effects of red blood cell transfusion (RBCT) on mortality, with particular emphasis on the statistical methods used to adjust for confounding. Given the limited number of randomised trials of the efficacy of RBCT, clinicians often use evidence from observational studies. However, confounding factors, for example, individuals receiving blood generally being sicker than those who do not, make their interpretation challenging. Design Systematic review. Information sources We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for studies published from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2010. Eligibility criteria for included studies We included prospective cohort, case–control studies or retrospective analyses of databases or disease registers where the effect of risk factors for mortality or survival was examined. Studies must have included more than 1000 participants receiving RBCT for any cause. We assessed the effects of RBCT versus no RBCT and different volumes and age of RBCT. Results –32 studies were included in the review; 23 assessed the effects of RBCT versus no RBCT; 5 assessed different volumes and 4 older versus newer RBCT. There was a considerable variability in the patient populations, study designs and level of statistical adjustment. Overall, most studies showed a higher rate of mortality when comparing patients who received RBCT with those who did not, even when these rates were adjusted for confounding; the majority of these increases were statistically significant. The same pattern was observed in studies where protection from bias was likely to be greater, such as prospective studies. Conclusions Recent observational studies do show a consistently adverse effect of RBCT on mortality. Whether this is a true effect remains uncertain as it is possible that even the best conducted adjustments cannot completely eliminate the impact of confounding.

Long-term seroprotection after an adolescent booster meningococcal serogroup C vaccination

Objectives To determine long-term seroprotection after serogroup C meningococcal (MenC) vaccination at the age of 9–12 years, with or without booster vaccination at the age of 13–15 years. Design Observational cohort study; follow-on from randomised study. Setting Participants were recruited from English secondary schools (in Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire). Participants and interventions Participants were primed with MenC CRM-glycoconjugate vaccine at the age of 9–12 years in the UK routine immunisation campaign. In previous studies they were randomised at 13 to 15 years of age to receive a booster dose of MenC-CRM glycoconjugate vaccine (CRM-group) or bivalent meningococcal serogroup A/C polysaccharide vaccine (PS-group), or they received no additional doses of MenC vaccine (control group). In this follow-on study, a blood sample was obtained 11 years after primary immunisation. Of 531 individuals eligible to participate, 134 were enrolled, and 124 were included in the analysis. Main outcome measures MenC serum bactericidal antibody (SBA) geometric mean titre; proportion of participants with SBA titre ≥8 (putative protective threshold). Results Median ages at priming, boosting and blood sampling were 10.61, 14.42 and 22.11 years, respectively. Geometric mean titres for MenC SBA were: CRM group 1373 (95% CI 954 to 1977); PS group 1024 (687 to 1526); and controls 284 (167 to 483). SBA titres ≥8 were present in 50/54 (92.6%) controls and 70/70 (100%) boosted individuals. Conclusions The planned introduction in the UK of an adolescent booster of MenC conjugate vaccine in 2013 is likely to provide sustained protection against MenC disease. Trial registration Registered on ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01459432).

Persistence of serum bactericidal antibody one year after a booster dose of either a glycoconjugate or a plain polysaccharide vaccine against serogroup C neisseria meningitidis given to adolescents previously immunized with a glycoconjugate vaccine

Background: Bactericidal antibody induced by immunization of infants with serogroup C Neisseria meningitidis (MenC) vaccines wanes rapidly during childhood. Adolescents are at particular risk from meningococcal disease, therefore they might benefit from a booster dose of vaccine. The duration of serologic response to such a booster in adolescents is unknown. Methods: In a previous study, English schoolchildren, aged 9 to 12 years, who had received a monovalent MenC glycoconjugate vaccine in 1999–2000, were given either a plain polysaccharide vaccine (MenC-PS group, n = 150) or a glycoconjugate vaccine (MenC-CRM group, n = 95) at 13 to 15 years of age. In this follow-up study, serum bactericidal antibody titers and specific immunoglobulin G concentrations were assessed 1 year later. Results were compared with unboosted controls of similar age (control group, n = 298). Results: Compliance with study protocol was achieved for 146 of the MenC-PS group, 92 of the MenC-CRM group, and 293 of the control group. Compared with the control group, both the MenC-PS and MenC-CRM groups had a significantly higher (P < 0.0001) geometric mean serum bactericidal antibody titers 1 year after the booster dose (geometric mean titers for MenC-PS group 3388 [95% confidence interval {CI}: 2460–4665]; MenC-CRM group 4417 [95% CI: 2951–6609]; control group 316 [95% CI: 252–396]). Specific immunoglobulin G concentration also rose and remained elevated 1 year after the booster. Conclusions: A booster dose of MenC vaccine given to adolescents produced a marked rise in bactericidal antibody, which remained elevated 1 year later. Introduction of an adolescent booster of MenC vaccine might provide enhanced long-term population control of the disease.

Impact of a web-based tool (WebCONSORT) to improve the reporting of randomised trials: results of a randomised controlled trial

BackgroundThe CONSORT Statement is an evidence-informed guideline for reporting randomised controlled trials. A number of extensions have been developed that specify additional information to report for more complex trials. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of using a simple web-based tool (WebCONSORT, which incorporates a number of different CONSORT extensions) on the completeness of reporting of randomised trials published in biomedical publications.MethodsWe conducted a parallel group randomised trial. Journals which endorsed the CONSORT Statement (i.e. referred to it in the Instruction to Authors) but do not actively implement it (i.e. require authors to submit a completed CONSORT checklist) were invited to participate. Authors of randomised trials were requested by the editor to use the web-based tool at the manuscript revision stage. Authors registering to use the tool were randomised (centralised computer generated) to WebCONSORT or control. In the WebCONSORT group, they had access to a tool allowing them to combine the different CONSORT extensions relevant to their trial and generate a customised checklist and flow diagram that they must submit to the editor. In the control group, authors had only access to a CONSORT flow diagram generator. Authors, journal editors, and outcome assessors were blinded to the allocation. The primary outcome was the proportion of CONSORT items (main and extensions) reported in each article post revision.ResultsA total of 46 journals actively recruited authors into the trial (25 March 2013 to 22 September 2015); 324 author manuscripts were randomised (WebCONSORT n = 166; control n = 158), of which 197 were reports of randomised trials (n = 94; n = 103). Over a third (39%; n = 127) of registered manuscripts were excluded from the analysis, mainly because the reported study was not a randomised trial. Of those included in the analysis, the most common CONSORT extensions selected were non-pharmacologic (n = 43; n = 50), pragmatic (n = 20; n = 16) and cluster (n = 10; n = 9). In a quarter of manuscripts, authors either wrongly selected an extension or failed to select the right extension when registering their manuscript on the WebCONSORT study site. Overall, there was no important difference in the overall mean score between WebCONSORT (mean score 0.51) and control (0.47) in the proportion of CONSORT and CONSORT extension items reported pertaining to a given study (mean difference, 0.04; 95% CI −0.02 to 0.10).ConclusionsThis study failed to show a beneficial effect of a customised web-based CONSORT checklist to help authors prepare more complete trial reports. However, the exclusion of a large number of inappropriately registered manuscripts meant we had less precision than anticipated to detect a difference. Better education is needed, earlier in the publication process, for both authors and journal editorial staff on when and how to implement CONSORT and, in particular, CONSORT-related extensions.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01891448 [registered 24 May 2013].

Effect of MRI on preterm infants and their families: a randomised trial with nested diagnostic and economic evaluation.

Background We tested the hypothesis that routine MRI would improve the care and well-being of preterm infants and their families. Design Parallel-group randomised trial (1.1 allocation; intention-to-treat) with nested diagnostic and cost evaluations (EudraCT 2009-011602-42). Setting Participants from 14 London hospitals, imaged at a single centre. Patients 511 infants born before 33 weeks gestation underwent both MRI and ultrasound around term. 255 were randomly allocated (siblings together) to receive only MRI results and 255 only ultrasound from a paediatrician unaware of unallocated results; one withdrew before allocation. Main outcome measures Maternal anxiety, measured by the State-Trait Anxiety inventory (STAI) assessed in 206/214 mothers receiving MRI and 217/220 receiving ultrasound. Secondary outcomes included: prediction of neurodevelopment, health-related costs and quality of life. Results After MRI, STAI fell from 36.81 (95% CI 35.18 to 38.44) to 32.77 (95% CI 31.54 to 34.01), 31.87 (95% CI 30.63 to 33.12) and 31.82 (95% CI 30.65 to 33.00) at 14 days, 12 and 20 months, respectively. STAI fell less after ultrasound: from 37.59 (95% CI 36.00 to 39.18) to 33.97 (95% CI 32.78 to 35.17), 33.43 (95% CI 32.22 to 34.63) and 33.63 (95% CI 32.49 to 34.77), p=0.02. There were no differences in health-related quality of life. MRI predicted moderate or severe functional motor impairment at 20 months slightly better than ultrasound (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (CI) 0.74; 0.66 to 0.83 vs 0.64; 0.56 to 0.72, p=0.01) but cost £315 (CI £295–£336) more per infant. Conclusions MRI increased costs and provided only modest benefits. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01049594 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01049594. EudraCT: EudraCT: 2009-011602-42 (https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/).