Øystein Skagseth

One more step toward a warmer Arctic

This study was motivated by a strong warming signal seen in mooring-based and oceanographic survey data collected in 2004 in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean. The source of this and earlier Arctic Ocean changes lies in interactions between polar and sub-polar basins. Evidence suggests such changes are abrupt, or pulse-like, taking the form of propagating anomalies that can be traced to higher-latitudes. For example, an anomaly found in 2004 in the eastern Eurasian Basin took ∼1.5 years to propagate from the Norwegian Sea to the Fram Strait region, and additional ∼4.5–5 years to reach the Laptev Sea slope. While the causes of the observed changes will require further investigation, our conclusions are consistent with prevailing ideas suggesting the Arctic Ocean is in transition towards a new, warmer state.

Analysis of the Arctic System for Freshwater Cycle Intensification: Observations and Expectations

Abstract Hydrologic cycle intensification is an expected manifestation of a warming climate. Although positive trends in several global average quantities have been reported, no previous studies have documented broad intensification across elements of the Arctic freshwater cycle (FWC). In this study, the authors examine the character and quantitative significance of changes in annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge across the terrestrial pan-Arctic over the past several decades from observations and a suite of coupled general circulation models (GCMs). Trends in freshwater flux and storage derived from observations across the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas are also described. With few exceptions, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge fluxes from observations and the GCMs exhibit positive trends. Significant positive trends above the 90% confidence level, however, are not present for all of the observations. Greater confidence in the GCM trends arises through lowe...

Quantifying the Influence of Atlantic Heat on Barents Sea Ice Variability and Retreat

AbstractThe recent Arctic winter sea ice retreat is most pronounced in the Barents Sea. Using available observations of the Atlantic inflow to the Barents Sea and results from a regional ice–ocean model the authors assess and quantify the role of inflowing heat anomalies on sea ice variability. The interannual variability and longer-term decrease in sea ice area reflect the variability of the Atlantic inflow, both in observations and model simulations. During the last decade (1998–2008) the reduction in annual (July–June) sea ice area was 218 × 103 km2, or close to 50%. This reduction has occurred concurrent with an increase in observed Atlantic heat transport due to both strengthening and warming of the inflow. Modeled interannual variations in sea ice area between 1948 and 2007 are associated with anomalous heat transport (r = −0.63) with a 70 × 103 km2 decrease per 10 TW input of heat. Based on the simulated ocean heat budget it is found that the heat transport into the western Barents Sea sets the bou...

Volume and Heat Transports to the Arctic Ocean Via the Norwegian and Barents Seas

The main aim of this paper has been to present a holistic view of the Atlantic water flow along the Norwegian Coast and into the Barents Sea. It has focused on the period starting in the mid-1990s, with simultaneous arrays of moored current meters in the Svinoy section and the Barents Sea Opening. These detailed measurements have provided the bases for improved estimates of means and variations in fluxes, and their forcing mechanisms. Mean volume and heat fluxes associated with Atlantic water in the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current (NwASC) are 4.3 Sv and 126 TW respectively for the Svinoy section, showing no significant trends, and 1.8 Sv and 48 TW for the Barents Sea Opening, where positive trends have been found in both measures. These estimates are probably higher than the long-tem mean, since hydrographic data along the Norwegian Coast show that the periods of direct current measurements are the prolongations of a period that started in the late 1970s, since when Atlantic water has become warmer and saltier. The close resemblance, throughout the record, between temperature variations in the Kola section and the AMO-index back to the early 20 century illustrates the importance of large-scale longterm variations in the Barents Sea system. Although the magnitudes of these variations are relatively small in comparison with inter-annual variations, other studies have shown them to be of major importance for ecosystem changes (ACIA, 2005). 2 The different forcing effects of the NwASC and the Atlantic inflow to the Barents Sea to similar atmospheric systems are noted. The results strongly suggest that the relative distribution of the Norwegian Atlantic Current entering the Barents Sea and passing through the Fram Strait is very sensitive to storm tracks. Thus, changes in the predominant storm tracks may trigger major changes, including feedback mechanisms, for the Barents Sea climate and the heat budget of the Arctic Ocean.

One mechanism contributing to co-variability of the Atlantic inflow branches to the Arctic

The two-branched inflow of warm and saline Atlantic Water to the Arctic is the major contributor of oceanic heat to the Arctic climate system. However, while the Atlantic Water entering the Arctic through the Fram Strait retains a large part of its heat as it flows along the Arctic continental slope, the branch flowing through the shallow Barents Sea releases a substantial amount of heat to the atmosphere. Hence, the pathway of the Atlantic Water into the Arctic to a large degree determines the short term fate of its heat. Here we show events in which the relative strengths of the two branches are affected by wind-induced Ekman-transport off the northern Barents Sea shelf. The resulting decrease in sea surface height induces a cyclonic circulation anomaly along the slope encircling the northern Barents Sea shelf area, which enhances the flow through the Barents Sea while weakening the branch flowing along the Arctic continental slope.

On the flow of Atlantic water and temperature anomalies in the Nordic Seas toward the Arctic Ocean

The climatic conditions over the Arctic Ocean are strongly influenced by the inflow of warm Atlantic water conveyed by the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current (NwASC). Based on sea surface height (SSH) data from altimetry, we develop a simple dynamical measure of the NwASC transport to diagnose its spatio-temporal variability. This supports a dynamical division of the NwASC into two flow regimes; the Svinoy Branch (SvB) in the southern Norwegian Sea, and the Fram Strait Branch (FSB) west of Spitsbergen. The SvB transport is well correlated with the SSH and atmospheric variability within the Nordic Seas, factors that also affect the inflow to the Barents Sea. In contrast, the FSB is influenced by regional atmospheric conditions around Svalbard and northern Barents Sea. Using a composite analysis, we further relate anomalous strong SvB flow events to temperature fluctuations along the core of Atlantic water. A warm composite anomaly is found to propagate northward, with a tendency to amplify enroute, after these events. A roughly 12 months delayed temperature signal is identified in the FSB. However, also in the Lofoten Basin interior a delayed temperature signal is found, which appears to originate from the NwASC. This study suggests that hydrographic anomalies both upstream from the North Atlantic, and locally generated in the Norwegian Sea, are important for the oceanic heat and salt transport that eventually enters into the Arctic.

Annual Sea Surface Height Variability in the Nordic Seas

Altimeter data from May 1995 to February 2002, together with wind, heat, and fresh water fluxes and hydrographic data, are used to study the annual variability in sea surface height (SSH) in the Nordic Seas. The main contributions to the SSH are quantified with error estimates. The amplitude of the annual variation of the SSH ranges from 4 to 8 cm with largest variability in the deeper basins (Lofoten, Norwegian, and Greenland Basins) and along the Norwegian coast. The seasonal steric height can explain 1.5-4 cm of the SSH variation and arises from changes in the air-sea heat flux. However, the associated seasonal changes in the surface currents that arrive from the steric height and the heat flux are weak (a few mm/s). This is because their contributions to the SSH are nearly constant over large areas. From altimetry and hydrography, we calculated seasonal changes in bottom pressure and currents. In the Greenland and Norwegian Seas, the seasonal anomalous large-scale circulation is cyclonic during spring and anticyclonic during autumn. It is most apparent in the Norwegian Sea with a seasonal variation in speed of 1-2 cm/s. This variation can be explained by changes in the averaged wind-stress curl over the Norwegian Sea. The annual cycle of the Norwegian Atlantic slope current is also revealed. It is strongest in winter and weakest in summer with an annual amplitude in speed of 2-4 cm/s.

Advective and atmospheric forced changes in heat and fresh water content in the Norwegian Sea, 1951–2010

Climate variability in the Norwegian Sea was investigated in terms of ocean heat and fresh water contents of Atlantic water above a reference surface, using hydrographic data during spring 1951–2010. The main processes acting on this variability were examined and then quantified. The area-averaged water mass cooled and freshened, but a deepening of the reference surface resulted in a positive trend in the heat content of 0.3 W m−2. Air-sea heat fluxes explained about half of the interannual variability in heat content. The effect of the advection of Atlantic and Arctic waters on the variability varied with time, apparently due to large-scale changes in the ocean circulation. The data are consistent with the explanation that changing wind patterns caused buffering and then release of Arctic water in the Iceland Sea during the late 1960s to early 1970s, and this caused large hydrographic changes in the Norwegian Sea.

/The Nordic Seas : An overview

The aim of this overview paper is to provide a brief synthesis of the five review papers contained in the monograph. Prevailing south-westerly winds, oceanic flow patterns, and oceanic summer heat storage make the Nordic Seas region having temperatures 10 to 20 °C above the mean temperature at similar latitudes. The combination of the large heat import from south and the polar location implies that the region is prone to natural climate variations and particularly vulnerable for external forcings. Proxy data for the Holocene epoch indeed reveal large high-frequency climate fluctuations, as well as long-term variations spanning the ‘medieval warm period’ and the ‘little ice age’. In phase with a strengthening of the westerly winds since the 1960s, several oceanic key variables show trends unprecedented in available instrumental records, some of which extends back 50-100 years. State of the art climate models indicate that several of the changes may be linked to increased greenhouse gas forcing, and are therefore likely to be sustained or even amplified in the future. Furthermore, the marine cycling of carbon, and by that the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, is closely linked to the climate state of the region. The Nordic Seas region is, as one of few ocean locations, a sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide throughout the year. With the rapid developments in data acquisition, computational resources, and societal concerns for climate change and environmental issues, the review papers give an updated account of the present knowledge of the complex climate states of the Nordic Seas, and how the Nordic Seas influence the climate outside the region.

Wind-Driven Atlantic Water Flow as a Direct Mode for Reduced Barents Sea Ice Cover

AbstractVariability in the Barents Sea ice cover on interannual and longer time scales has previously been shown to be governed by oceanic heat transport. Based on analysis of observations and results from an ocean circulation model during an event of reduced sea ice cover in the northeastern Barents Sea in winter 1993, it is shown that the ocean also plays a direct role within seasons. Positive wind stress curl and associated Ekman divergence causes a coherent increase in the Atlantic water transport along the negative thermal gradient through the Barents Sea. The immediate response connected to the associated local winds in the northeastern Barents Sea is a decrease in the sea ice cover due to advection. Despite a subsequent anomalous ocean-to-air heat loss on the order of 100 W m−2 due to the open water, the increase in the ocean heat content caused by the circulation anomaly reduced refreezing on a time scale of order one month. Furthermore, it is found that coherent ocean heat transport anomalies occ...