P. Gaudio

Ebola Virus Disease 2013-2014 Outbreak in West Africa: An Analysis of the Epidemic Spread and Response

The Ebola virus epidemic burst in West Africa in late 2013, started in Guinea, reached in a few months an alarming diffusion, actually involving several countries (Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Senegal, and Mali). Guinea and Liberia, the first nations affected by the outbreak, have put in place measures to contain the spread, supported by international organizations; then they were followed by the other nations affected. In the present EVD outbreak, the geographical spread of the virus has followed a new route: the achievement of large urban areas at an early stage of the epidemic has led to an unprecedented diffusion, featuring the largest outbreak of EVD of all time. This has caused significant concerns all over the world: the potential reaching of far countries from endemic areas, mainly through fast transports, induced several countries to issue information documents and health supervision for individuals going to or coming from the areas at risk. In this paper the geographical spread of the epidemic was analyzed, assessing the sequential appearance of cases by geographic area, considering the increase in cases and mortality according to affected nations. The measures implemented by each government and international organizations to contain the outbreak, and their effectiveness, were also evaluated.

STARDUST experimental campaign and numerical simulations: influence of obstacles and temperature on dust resuspension in a vacuum vessel under LOVA

Activated dust mobilization during a Loss of Vacuum Accident (LOVA) is one of the safety concerns for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). Intense thermal loads in fusion devices occur during plasma disruptions, edge localized modes and vertical displacement events. They will result in macroscopic erosion of the plasma facing materials and consequent accumulation of activated dust into the ITER vacuum vessel (VV). These kinds of events can cause dust leakage outside the VV that represents a high radiological risk for the workers and the population. A small facility, Small Tank for Aerosol Removal and Dust (STARDUST), was set up at the ENEA Frascati laboratories to perform experiments concerning the dust mobilization in a volume with the initial conditions similar to those existing in ITER VV. The aim of this work was to reproduce a low pressurization rate (300?Pa?s?1) LOVA event in a VV due to a small air leakage for two different positions of the leak, at the equatorial port level and at the divertor port level, in order to evaluate the influence of obstacles and walls temperature on dust resuspension during both maintenance (MC) and accident conditions (AC) (Twalls = 25??C MC, 110??C AC). The dusts used were tungsten (W), stainless steel 316 (SS316) and carbon (C), similar to those produced inside the vacuum chamber in a fusion reactor when the plasma facing materials vaporize due to the high energy deposition. The experimental campaign has been carried out by introducing inside STARDUST facility an obstacle to simulate the presence of objects, such as divertor. In the obstacle a slit was cut to simulate the limiter?divertor gap inside ITER VV. In this paper experimental campaign results are shown in order to investigate how the divertor and limiter?divertor gap influence dust mobilization into a VV. A two-dimensional (2D) modelling of STARDUST was made using the CFD commercial code FLUENT, in order to get a preliminary overview of the fluid dynamics behaviour during a LOVA event and to justify the mobilization data. In addition, a numerical model was developed to compare numerical results with experimental ones.

Safety Analysis in Large Volume Vacuum Systems Like Tokamak: Experiments and Numerical Simulation to Analyze Vacuum Ruptures Consequences

The large volume vacuum systems are used in many industrial operations and research laboratories. Accidents in these systems should have a relevant economical and safety impact. A loss of vacuum accident (LOVA) due to a failure of the main vacuum vessel can result in a fast pressurization of the vessel and consequent mobilization dispersion of hazardous internal material through the braches. It is clear that the influence of flow fields, consequence of accidents like LOVA, on dust resuspension is a key safety issue. In order to develop this analysis an experimental facility is been developed: STARDUST. This last facility has been used to improve the knowledge about LOVA to replicate a condition more similar to appropriate operative condition like to kamaks. By the experimental data the boundary conditions have been extrapolated to give the proper input for the 2D thermofluid-dynamics numerical simulations, developed by the commercial CFD numerical code. The benchmark of numerical simulation results with the experimental ones has been used to validate and tune the 2D thermofluid-dynamics numerical model that has been developed by the authors to replicate the LOVA conditions inside STARDUST. In present work, the facility, materials, numerical model, and relevant results will be presented.

UMEL: A new regression tool to identify measurement peaks in LIDAR/DIAL systems for environmental physics applications

Recently, surveying large areas in an automatic way, for early detection of both harmful chemical agents and forest fires, has become a strategic objective of defence and public health organisations. The Lidar and Dial techniques are widely recognized as a cost-effective alternative to monitor large portions of the atmosphere. To maximize the effectiveness of the measurements and to guarantee reliable monitoring of large areas, new data analysis techniques are required. In this paper, an original tool, the Universal Multi Event Locator, is applied to the problem of automatically identifying the time location of peaks in Lidar and Dial measurements for environmental physics applications. This analysis technique improves various aspects of the measurements, ranging from the resilience to drift in the laser sources to the increase of the system sensitivity. The method is also fully general, purely software, and can therefore be applied to a large variety of problems without any additional cost. The potential of the proposed technique is exemplified with the help of data of various instruments acquired during several experimental campaigns in the field.

Raman water vapour concentration measurements for reduction of false alarms in forest fire detection

Forest fires can be the cause of environmental catastrophe, with the natural outcomes of serious ecological and economic damages, together with the possibility to endanger human safety. At the aim to reduce this catastrophe several author have been shown that the Laser light scattering can be uses to reveals the particulate emitted in the smoke. Infact experimental and theoretical investigations have shown that lidar is a powerful tool to detect the tenuous smoke plumes produced by forest fires at an early stage. In early 90s Arbolino and Andreucci have shown the theoretical possibility to detect the particulate emitted in atmosphere from smoke forest fire. Vilar at all have shown experimentally the possibility to measure the density variation in atmosphere due to plume emitted in forest fire event. Gaudio at all. have already shown that it is possible to evaluate water vapor emitted in smoke of vegetable fuel using a CO2 dial system. In this paper a theoretical model to evaluate the capabilities of a lidar system in fire surveillance of wooded areas will be presented. In particular we intend propose a technique to minimizing the false alarm in the detection of forest fire by lidar based on a measurement of second components emitted in a combustion process. Usually to detect a fire alarm a rapid increase of aerosol amount is measured. If the backscattering signal report a peak, the presences of a forest fire will be probable. Our idea to confirm this hypothesis is measure the second components emitted in a forest fire at the aim to minimize the false alarm. The simulated measurements of the humidity amount within the smoke plume will be carried out by means of Raman analysis. Fixing the burning rate of the vegetable-fuels, the maximum range of detection will be evaluated.

Numerical simulations as tool to predict chemical and radiological hazardous diffusion in case of nonconventional events

CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) simulations are widely used nowadays to predict the behaviour of fluids in pure research and in industrial applications. This approach makes it possible to get quantitatively meaningful results, often in good agreement with the experimental ones. The aim of this paper is to show how CFD calculations can help to understand the time evolution of two possible CBRNe (Chemical-Biological-Radiological-Nuclear-explosive) events: (1) hazardous dust mobilization due to the interaction between a jet of air and a metallic powder in case of a LOVA (Loss Of Vacuum Accidents) that is one of the possible accidents that can occur in experimental nuclear fusion plants; (2) toxic gas release in atmosphere. The scenario analysed in the paper has consequences similar to those expected in case of a release of dangerous substances (chemical or radioactive) in enclosed or open environment during nonconventional events (like accidents or man-made or natural disasters).

A new calibration code for the JET polarimeter

An equivalent model of JET polarimeter is presented, which overcomes the drawbacks of previous versions of the fitting procedures used to provide calibrated results. First of all the signal processing electronics has been simulated, to confirm that it is still working within the original specifications. Then the effective optical path of both the vertical and lateral chords has been implemented to produce the calibration curves. The principle approach to the model has allowed obtaining a unique procedure which can be applied to any manual calibration and remains constant until the following one. The optical model of the chords is then applied to derive the plasma measurements. The results are in good agreement with the estimates of the most advanced full wave propagation code available and have been benchmarked with other diagnostics. The devised procedure has proved to work properly also for the most recent campaigns and high current experiments.

Early detection of small forest fire by dial technique

Forest fires can be the cause of serious environmental and economic damages. For this reason considerable effort has been directed toward forest protection and fire fighting. The means traditionally used for early fire detection mainly consist in human observers dispersed over forest regions. A significant improvement in early warning capabilities could be obtained by using automatic detection apparatus. In order to early detect small forest fires, the use of a dial system will be considered. A first evaluation of the lowest detectable concentration will be estimated by a numerical simulation. The theoretical model will be used also to get the capacities of a dial system in fire surveillance of wooded areas. Fixing the burning rate for several fuels, the maximum range of detection will be evaluated. The results of these simulations will be reported in the paper.

Clipping the tail of a TE–CO2 laser pulse using a gas breakdown technique for high resolution chemical plume detection

In this article we present the realization of a spark-induced plasma shutter, working in free atmosphere, to clip off the nitrogen tail of a TE CO2 laser source. The clipping mechanism has been tested and gain switched spike pulses ranging between 100 and 115 ns have been obtained at 10P20-laser line. The shutter mechanism was optimized. In this way a clipping efficiency of 100% and a jitter value around 15 ns were obtained.

A statistical methodology to derive the scaling law for the H-mode power threshold using a large multi-machine database

In this paper, a refined set of statistical techniques is developed and then applied to the problem of deriving the scaling law for the threshold power to access the H-mode of confinement in tokamaks. This statistical methodology is applied to the 2010 version of the ITPA International Global Threshold Data Base v6b(IGDBTHv6b). To increase the engineering and operative relevance of the results, only macroscopic physical quantities, measured in the vast majority of experiments, have been considered as candidate variables in the models. Different principled methods, such as agglomerative hierarchical variables clustering, without assumption about the functional form of the scaling, and nonlinear regression, are implemented to select the best subset of candidate independent variables and to improve the regression model accuracy. Two independent model selection criteria, based on the classical (Akaike information criterion) and Bayesian formalism (Bayesian information criterion), are then used to identify the most efficient scaling law from candidate models. The results derived from the full multi-machine database confirm the results of previous analysis but emphasize the importance of shaping quantities, elongation and triangularity. On the other hand, the scaling laws for the different machines and at different currents are different from each other at the level of confidence well above 95%, suggesting caution in the use of the global scaling laws for both interpretation and extrapolation purposes.