P Pharoah

Average Risks of Breast and Ovarian Cancer Associated with BRCA1 or BRCA2 Mutations Detected in Case Series Unselected for Family History: A Combined Analysis of 22 Studies

Germline mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 confer high risks of breast and ovarian cancer, but the average magnitude of these risks is uncertain and may depend on the context. Estimates based on multiple-case families may be enriched for mutations of higher risk and/or other familial risk factors, whereas risk estimates from studies based on cases unselected for family history have been imprecise. We pooled pedigree data from 22 studies involving 8,139 index case patients unselected for family history with female (86%) or male (2%) breast cancer or epithelial ovarian cancer (12%), 500 of whom had been found to carry a germline mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2. Breast and ovarian cancer incidence rates for mutation carriers were estimated using a modified segregation analysis, based on the occurrence of these cancers in the relatives of mutation-carrying index case patients. The average cumulative risks in BRCA1-mutation carriers by age 70 years were 65% (95% confidence interval 44%-78%) for breast cancer and 39% (18%-54%) for ovarian cancer. The corresponding estimates for BRCA2 were 45% (31%-56%) and 11% (2.4%-19%). Relative risks of breast cancer declined significantly with age for BRCA1-mutation carriers (P trend.0012) but not for BRCA2-mutation carriers. Risks in carriers were higher when based on index breast cancer cases diagnosed at <35 years of age. We found some evidence for a reduction in risk in women from earlier birth cohorts and for variation in risk by mutation position for both genes. The pattern of cancer risks was similar to those found in multiple-case families, but their absolute magnitudes were lower, particularly for BRCA2. The variation in risk by age at diagnosis of index case is consistent with the effects of other genes modifying cancer risk in carriers.

Somatic mutations in the p53 gene and prognosis in breast cancer : a meta-analysis

SummaryMany studies have investigated the association between alterations in the p53 gene and clinical outcome of breast cancer, and most investigators have reported poorer overall and disease-free survival (as indicated by a relative hazard (RH) greater than one) in breast cancer cases with somatic mutations in p53. However, different studies have produced widely differing RH estimates, ranging from no risk (RH = 1) to a relative hazard of 23, and not all of these results have been statistically significant. We have therefore reviewed all the published studies that have investigated the association between somatic mutations in the p53 gene and breast cancer prognosis and used standard techniques of meta-analysis to combine the results of these studies to produce a more precise estimate of the prognostic significance of p53 mutations. Eleven studies investigated overall survival in a total of 2319 unselected cases. The RH estimates from these ranged from 1 to 23.4 with a combined RH estimate of 2.0 (confidence interval 1.7–2.5). Three studies investigated the role of p53 in node-negative patients and in these, the combined estimate of RH was 1.7 (1.2–2.3). For three studies of node-positive breast cancer the combined risk estimate was 2.6 (1.7–3.9). The inclusion of p53 mutation screening in large breast cancer clinical trials seems warranted in the light of these results. Analysis of large numbers of cases matched for stage and therapy will allow definitive clarification of the value of p53 mutational status in prognostication, and possibly choice of therapy.

Seven prostate cancer susceptibility loci identified by a multi-stage genome-wide association study

Prostate cancer (PrCa) is the most frequently diagnosed male cancer in developed countries. We conducted a multi-stage genome-wide association study for PrCa and previously reported the results of the first two stages, which identified 16 PrCa susceptibility loci. We report here the results of stage 3, in which we evaluated 1,536 SNPs in 4,574 individuals with prostate cancer (cases) and 4,164 controls. We followed up ten new association signals through genotyping in 51,311 samples in 30 studies from the Prostate Cancer Association Group to Investigate Cancer Associated Alterations in the Genome (PRACTICAL) consortium. In addition to replicating previously reported loci, we identified seven new prostate cancer susceptibility loci on chromosomes 2p11, 3q23, 3q26, 5p12, 6p21, 12q13 and Xq12 (P = 4.0 × 10−8 to P = 2.7 × 10−24). We also identified a SNP in TERT more strongly associated with PrCa than that previously reported. More than 40 PrCa susceptibility loci, explaining ∼25% of the familial risk in this disease, have now been identified.

BCL2 in breast cancer: a favourable prognostic marker across molecular subtypes and independent of adjuvant therapy received

BACKGROUND Breast cancer is heterogeneous and the existing prognostic classifiers are limited in accuracy, leading to unnecessary treatment of numerous women. B-cell lymphoma 2 (BCL2), an antiapoptotic protein, has been proposed as a prognostic marker, but this effect is considered to relate to oestrogen receptor (ER) status. This study aimed to test the clinical validity of BCL2 as an independent prognostic marker. METHODS Five studies of 11 212 women with early-stage breast cancer were analysed. Individual patient data included tumour size, grade, lymph node status, endocrine therapy, chemotherapy and mortality. BCL2, ER, progesterone receptor (PR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) levels were determined in all tumours. A Cox model incorporating the time-dependent effects of each variable was used to explore the prognostic significance of BCL2. RESULTS In univariate analysis, ER, PR and BCL2 positivity was associated with improved survival and HER2 positivity with inferior survival. For ER and PR this effect was time dependent, whereas for BCL2 and HER2 the effect persisted over time. In multivariate analysis, BCL2 positivity retained independent prognostic significance (hazard ratio (HR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.66-0.88, P<0.001). BCL2 was a powerful prognostic marker in ER- (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.54-0.74, P<0.001) and ER+ disease (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.48-0.65, P<0.001), and in HER2- (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.49-0.61, P<0.001) and HER2+ disease (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.57-0.85, P<0.001), irrespective of the type of adjuvant therapy received. Addition of BCL2 to the Adjuvant! Online prognostic model, for a subset of cases with a 10-year follow-up, improved the survival prediction (P=0.0039). CONCLUSIONS BCL2 is an independent indicator of favourable prognosis for all types of early-stage breast cancer. This study establishes the rationale for introduction of BCL2 immunohistochemistry to improve prognostic stratification. Further work is now needed to ascertain the exact way to apply BCL2 testing for risk stratification and to standardise BCL2 immunohistochemistry for this application.Background:Breast cancer is heterogeneous and the existing prognostic classifiers are limited in accuracy, leading to unnecessary treatment of numerous women. B-cell lymphoma 2 (BCL2), an antiapoptotic protein, has been proposed as a prognostic marker, but this effect is considered to relate to oestrogen receptor (ER) status. This study aimed to test the clinical validity of BCL2 as an independent prognostic marker.Methods:Five studies of 11 212 women with early-stage breast cancer were analysed. Individual patient data included tumour size, grade, lymph node status, endocrine therapy, chemotherapy and mortality. BCL2, ER, progesterone receptor (PR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) levels were determined in all tumours. A Cox model incorporating the time-dependent effects of each variable was used to explore the prognostic significance of BCL2.Results:In univariate analysis, ER, PR and BCL2 positivity was associated with improved survival and HER2 positivity with inferior survival. For ER and PR this effect was time dependent, whereas for BCL2 and HER2 the effect persisted over time. In multivariate analysis, BCL2 positivity retained independent prognostic significance (hazard ratio (HR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.66–0.88, P<0.001). BCL2 was a powerful prognostic marker in ER− (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.54–0.74, P<0.001) and ER+ disease (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.48–0.65, P<0.001), and in HER2− (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.49–0.61, P<0.001) and HER2+ disease (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.57–0.85, P<0.001), irrespective of the type of adjuvant therapy received. Addition of BCL2 to the Adjuvant! Online prognostic model, for a subset of cases with a 10-year follow-up, improved the survival prediction (P=0.0039).Conclusions:BCL2 is an independent indicator of favourable prognosis for all types of early-stage breast cancer. This study establishes the rationale for introduction of BCL2 immunohistochemistry to improve prognostic stratification. Further work is now needed to ascertain the exact way to apply BCL2 testing for risk stratification and to standardise BCL2 immunohistochemistry for this application.

Predicting the likelihood of carrying a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation: validation of BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, IBIS, Myriad and the Manchester scoring system using data from UK genetics clinics.

Objectives: Genetic testing for the breast and ovarian cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2 has important implications for the clinical management of people found to carry a mutation. However, genetic testing is expensive and may be associated with adverse psychosocial effects. To provide a cost-efficient and clinically appropriate genetic counselling service, genetic testing should be targeted at those individuals most likely to carry pathogenic mutations. Several algorithms that predict the likelihood of carrying a BRCA1 or a BRCA2 mutation are currently used in clinical practice to identify such individuals. Design: We evaluated the performance of the carrier prediction algorithms BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, IBIS, the Manchester scoring system and Myriad tables, using 1934 families seen in cancer genetics clinics in the UK in whom an index patient had been screened for BRCA1 and/or BRCA2 mutations. The models were evaluated for calibration, discrimination and accuracy of the predictions. Results: Of the five algorithms, only BOADICEA predicted the overall observed number of mutations detected accurately (ie, was well calibrated). BOADICEA also provided the best discrimination, being significantly better (p<0.05) than all models except BRCAPRO (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve statistics: BOADICEA = 0.77, BRCAPRO = 0.76, IBIS = 0.74, Manchester = 0.75, Myriad = 0.72). All models underpredicted the number of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations in the low estimated risk category. Conclusions: Carrier prediction algorithms provide a rational basis for counselling individuals likely to carry BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. Their widespread use would improve equity of access and the cost-effectiveness of genetic testing.

Oral contraceptive use and ovarian cancer risk among carriers of BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations

Women with mutations of the genes BRCA1 or BRCA2 are at increased risk of ovarian cancer. Oral contraceptives protect against ovarian cancer in general, but it is not known whether they protect against the disease in carriers of these mutations. We obtained self-reported lifetime histories of oral contraceptive use from 451 women who carried mutations of BRCA1 or BRCA2. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate the odds ratios associated with oral contraceptive use, comparing the histories of 147 women with ovarian cancer (cases) to those of 304 women without ovarian cancer (controls) who were matched to cases on year of birth, country of residence and gene (BRCA1 vs BRCA2). Reference ages for controls had to exceed the ages at diagnosis of their matched cases. After adjusting for parity, the odds-ratio for ovarian cancer associated with use of oral contraceptives for at least 1 year was 0.85 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.53–1.36). The risk decreased by 5% (1–9%) with each year of use (P for trend=0.01). Use for 6 or more years was associated with an odds-ratio of 0.62 (0.35–1.09). These data support the hypothesis that long-term oral contraceptive use reduces the risk of ovarian cancer among women who carry mutations of BRCA1 or BRCA2.

Polygenic susceptibility to prostate and breast cancer: implications for personalised screening.

Background:We modelled the efficiency of a personalised approach to screening for prostate and breast cancer based on age and polygenic risk-profile compared with the standard approach based on age alone.Methods:We compared the number of cases potentially detectable by screening in a population undergoing personalised screening with a population undergoing screening based on age alone. Polygenic disease risk was assumed to have a log-normal relative risk distribution predicted for the currently known prostate or breast cancer susceptibility variants (N=31 and N=18, respectively).Results:Compared with screening men based on age alone (aged 55–79: 10-year absolute risk ⩾2%), personalised screening of men age 45–79 at the same risk threshold would result in 16% fewer men being eligible for screening at a cost of 3% fewer screen-detectable cases, but with added benefit of detecting additional cases in younger men at high risk. Similarly, compared with screening women based on age alone (aged 47–79: 10-year absolute risk ⩾2.5%), personalised screening of women age 35–79 at the same risk threshold would result in 24% fewer women being eligible for screening at a cost of 14% fewer screen-detectable cases.Conclusion:Personalised screening approach could improve the efficiency of screening programmes. This has potential implications on informing public health policy on cancer screening.

Multiple novel prostate cancer susceptibility signals identified by fine-mapping of known risk loci among Europeans

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same region.

The malignant phenotype in breast cancer is driven by eIF4A1-mediated changes in the translational landscape

Human mRNA DeXD/H-box helicases are ubiquitous molecular motors that are required for the majority of cellular processes that involve RNA metabolism. One of the most abundant is eIF4A, which is required during the initiation phase of protein synthesis to unwind regions of highly structured mRNA that would otherwise impede the scanning ribosome. Dysregulation of protein synthesis is associated with tumorigenesis, but little is known about the detailed relationships between RNA helicase function and the malignant phenotype in solid malignancies. Therefore, immunohistochemical analysis was performed on over 3000 breast tumors to investigate the relationship among expression of eIF4A1, the helicase-modulating proteins eIF4B, eIF4E and PDCD4, and clinical outcome. We found eIF4A1, eIF4B and eIF4E to be independent predictors of poor outcome in ER-negative disease, while in contrast, the eIF4A1 inhibitor PDCD4 was related to improved outcome in ER-positive breast cancer. Consistent with these data, modulation of eIF4A1, eIF4B and PCDC4 expression in cultured MCF7 cells all restricted breast cancer cell growth and cycling. The eIF4A1-dependent translatome of MCF7 cells was defined by polysome profiling, and was shown to be highly enriched for several classes of oncogenic genes, including G-protein constituents, cyclins and protein kinases, and for mRNAs with G/C-rich 5′UTRs with potential to form G-quadruplexes and with 3′UTRs containing microRNA target sites. Overall, our data show that dysregulation of mRNA unwinding contributes to the malignant phenotype in breast cancer via preferential translation of a class of genes involved in pro-oncogenic signaling at numerous levels. Furthermore, immunohistochemical tests are promising biomarkers for tumors sensitive to anti-helicase therapies.

Patient and tumour characteristics, management, and age-specific survival in women with breast cancer in the East of England

Background:Breast cancer relative survival (BCRS), which compares the observed survival of women with breast cancer with the expected survival of women for the whole population of the same age, time period, and geographical region, tends to be poorer in older women, but the reasons for this are not clear. We examined the influence of patient and tumour characteristics, and treatment on BCRS to see whether these could explain the age-specific effect.Methods:Data for 14 048 female breast cancer patients diagnosed from 1999 to 2007, aged 50 years or over were obtained from the Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Centre. We estimated relative 5- and 10-year survival for patients in four age groups (50–69, 70–74, 75–79, and 80+ years). We also modelled relative excess mortality (REM) rate using Poisson regression adjusting for patient characteristics and treatment. The REMs derived from these models quantify the extent to which the hazard of death differs from the hazard in the reference category, after taking into account the background risk of death in the general population. We compared the results with those obtained for breast cancer-specific mortality, analysed using multivariate Cox regression.Results:Median follow-up time was 4.7 years. Relative 5-year survival was 89, 81, 76, and 70% for patients aged 50–69, 70–74, 75–79, and 80+ years, respectively. Corresponding relative 10-year survival was 84, 77, 67, and 66%. Unadjusted REM was 1.93, 2.74, and 3.88 for patients aged 70–74, 75–79, and 80+ years, respectively, (50–69 years as reference). The equivalent hazard ratios from the Cox model were 1.88, 2.45, and 3.81. These were attenuated after adjusting for confounders (REM – 1.49, 1.36, and 1.23; Cox – 1.47, 1.50, and 1.76).Conclusion:We confirmed poorer BCRS in older women in our region. This was partially explained by known prognostic factors. Further research is needed to determine whether biological differences or suboptimal management can explain the residual excess mortality.