P. Q. Craufurd

Temperature variability and the yield of annual crops

Abstract Global production of annual crops will be affected by the increases in mean temperatures of 2–4°C expected towards the end of the 21st century. Within temperate regions, current cultivars of determinate annual crops will mature earlier, and hence yields will decline in response to warmer temperatures. Nevertheless, this negative effect of warmer temperatures should be countered by the increased rate of crop growth at elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, at least when there is sufficient water. Of more importance for the yield of annual seed crops may be changes in the frequency of hot (or cold) temperatures which are associated with warmer mean climates. The objectives of this paper are to review evidence for the importance of variability in temperature for annual crop yields, and to consider how the impacts of these events may be predicted. Evidence is presented for the importance of variability in temperature, independent of any substantial changes in mean seasonal temperature, for the yield of annual crops. Seed yields are particularly sensitive to brief episodes of hot temperatures if these coincide with critical stages of crop development. Hot temperatures at the time of flowering can reduce the potential number of seeds or grains that subsequently contribute to the crop yield. Three research needs are identified in order to provide a framework for predicting the impact of episodes of hot temperatures on the yields of annual crops: reliable seasonal weather forecasts, robust predictions of crop development, and crop simulation models which are able to quantify the effects of brief episodes of hot temperatures on seed yield.

Physiological and proteomic approaches to address heat tolerance during anthesis in rice (Oryza sativa L.)

Episodes of high temperature at anthesis, which in rice is the most sensitive stage to temperature, are expected to occur more frequently in future climates. The morphology of the reproductive organs and pollen number, and changes in anther protein expression, were studied in response to high temperature at anthesis in three rice (Oryza sativa L.) genotypes. Plants were exposed to 6 h of high (38 °C) and control (29 °C) temperature at anthesis and spikelets collected for morphological and proteomic analysis. Moroberekan was the most heat-sensitive genotype (18% spikelet fertility at 38 °C), while IR64 (48%) and N22 (71%) were moderately and highly heat tolerant, respectively. There were significant differences among the genotypes in anther length and width, apical and basal pore lengths, apical pore area, and stigma and pistil length. Temperature also affected some of these traits, increasing anther pore size and reducing stigma length. Nonetheless, variation in the number of pollen on the stigma could not be related to measured morphological traits. Variation in spikelet fertility was highly correlated (r=0.97, n=6) with the proportion of spikelets with ≥20 germinated pollen grains on the stigma. A 2D-gel electrophoresis showed 46 protein spots changing in abundance, of which 13 differentially expressed protein spots were analysed by MS/MALDI-TOF. A cold and a heat shock protein were found significantly up-regulated in N22, and this may have contributed to the greater heat tolerance of N22. The role of differentially expressed proteins and morphology during anther dehiscence and pollination in shaping heat tolerance and susceptibility is discussed.

Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops

Crop production is inherently sensitive to variability in climate. Temperature is a major determinant of the rate of plant development and, under climate change, warmer temperatures that shorten development stages of determinate crops will most probably reduce the yield of a given variety. Earlier crop flowering and maturity have been observed and documented in recent decades, and these are often associated with warmer (spring) temperatures. However, farm management practices have also changed and the attribution of observed changes in phenology to climate change per se is difficult. Increases in atmospheric [CO(2)] often advance the time of flowering by a few days, but measurements in FACE (free air CO(2) enrichment) field-based experiments suggest that elevated [CO(2)] has little or no effect on the rate of development other than small advances in development associated with a warmer canopy temperature. The rate of development (inverse of the duration from sowing to flowering) is largely determined by responses to temperature and photoperiod, and the effects of temperature and of photoperiod at optimum and suboptimum temperatures can be quantified and predicted. However, responses to temperature, and more particularly photoperiod, at supraoptimal temperature are not well understood. Analysis of a comprehensive data set of time to tassel initiation in maize (Zea mays) with a wide range of photoperiods above and below the optimum suggests that photoperiod modulates the negative effects of temperature above the optimum. A simulation analysis of the effects of prescribed increases in temperature (0-6 degrees C in +1 degree C steps) and temperature variability (0% and +50%) on days to tassel initiation showed that tassel initiation occurs later, and variability was increased, as the temperature exceeds the optimum in models both with and without photoperiod sensitivity. However, the inclusion of photoperiod sensitivity above the optimum temperature resulted in a higher apparent optimum temperature and less variability in the time of tassel initiation. Given the importance of changes in plant development for crop yield under climate change, the effects of photoperiod and temperature on development rates above the optimum temperature clearly merit further research, and some of the knowledge gaps are identified herein.

Toward a Combined Seasonal Weather and Crop Productivity Forecasting System: Determination of the Working Spatial Scale

Abstract A methodology is presented for the development of a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system. The first stage of the methodology is the determination of the spatial scale(s) on which the system could operate; this determination has been made for the case of groundnut production in India. Rainfall is a dominant climatic determinant of groundnut yield in India. The relationship between yield and rainfall has been explored using data from 1966 to 1995. On the all-India scale, seasonal rainfall explains 52% of the variance in yield. On the subdivisional scale, correlations vary between variance r2 = 0.62 (significance level p < 10–4) and a negative correlation with r2 = 0.1 (p = 0.13). The spatial structure of the relationship between rainfall and groundnut yield has been explored using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. A coherent, large-scale pattern emerges for both rainfall and yield. On the subdivisional scale (∼300 km), the first principal component (PC) of ...

Effect of elevated CO2 and high temperature on seed-set and grain quality of rice

Hybrid vigour may help overcome the negative effects of climate change in rice. A popular rice hybrid (IR75217H), a heat-tolerant check (N22), and a mega-variety (IR64) were tested for tolerance of seed-set and grain quality to high-temperature stress at anthesis at ambient and elevated [CO2]. Under an ambient air temperature of 29 °C (tissue temperature 28.3 °C), elevated [CO2] increased vegetative and reproductive growth, including seed yield in all three genotypes. Seed-set was reduced by high temperature in all three genotypes, with the hybrid and IR64 equally affected and twice as sensitive as the tolerant cultivar N22. No interaction occurred between temperature and [CO2] for seed-set. The hybrid had significantly more anthesed spikelets at all temperatures than IR64 and at 29 °C this resulted in a large yield advantage. At 35 °C (tissue temperature 32.9 °C) the hybrid had a higher seed yield than IR64 due to the higher spikelet number, but at 38 °C (tissue temperature 34–35 °C) there was no yield advantage. Grain gel consistency in the hybrid and IR64 was reduced by high temperatures only at elevated [CO2], while the percentage of broken grains increased from 10% at 29 °C to 35% at 38 °C in the hybrid. It is concluded that seed-set of hybrids is susceptible to short episodes of high temperature during anthesis, but that at intermediate tissue temperatures of 32.9 °C higher spikelet number (yield potential) of the hybrid can compensate to some extent. If the heat tolerance from N22 or other tolerant donors could be transferred into hybrids, yield could be maintained under the higher temperatures predicted with climate change.

Influence of high temperature during pre- and post-anthesis stages of floral development on fruit-set and pollen germination in peanut

Peanut ( Arachis hypogaea L.) crops are often exposed to day temperatures > 35°C for short periods during flowering, resulting in lower yields. Research was conducted to study and quantify the effects of short episodes (1-6 d) of high temperatures during the pre- and post-anthesis stages of floral development on fruit-set, pollen viability, germination and tube growth. Plants of peanut cv. ICGV-86015 were grown in controlled environments at 28/22°C (day/night). High daytime air temperature treatments ranging from 28 (control) to 48°C were imposed at different times between 6 d before anthesis (DBA) and 6 d after anthesis (DAA) for 1, 3 or 6 d. Floral buds or flowers were tagged at different stages to determine fruit-set. Exposure to bud (tissue) temperature ≥ 39°C for 1 d significantly reduced fruit-set compared to the control at 28°C, and the magnitude of the reduction varied with stage of floral development. Floral buds were most sensitive to high temperature at 4 DBA and at anthesis, coinciding with micro-sporogenesis and pollination or fertilisation, respectively. The critical bud temperature at these stages was 33°C, above which fruit-set was reduced by 6% °C -1 . Lower fruit-set due to high temperatures at pre-anthesis and anthesis stages were due to pollen sterility and retarded pollen tube growth, respectively.

Effect of high air and soil temperature on dry matter production, pod yield and yield components of groundnut

Groundnuts (Arachis hypogaea L.) grown in the semi-arid tropics are commonly exposed to air and soil temperatures above 35 °C during the reproductive period causing significant yield losses. The objectives of this study were to determine: (i) whether effects of high air and/or high soil temperature in two contrasting cultivars were similar; (ii) the effects of the timing of imposition of high air and soil temperature; (iii) the effects of high air, high soil and both stresses combined on yield and yield components; and (iv) whether the effects of high air and high soil temperature were additive or multiplicative. Plants were grown at optimum and ambient soil temperature from planting until start of podding at 45 d after planting (DAP) in Experiment 1, and until start of flowering at 28 DAP in Experiment 2. Thereafter, plants of each cultivar were exposed to a factorial combination of two air temperatures (optimum: 28°/22 °C and high: 38°/22 °C) and two soil temperatures (ambient: 26°/24 °C and high: 38°/30 °C) until final harvest at 90 DAP. The effects of high air and high soil temperatures imposed from start of flowering or podding were similar. Exposure to high air and/or high soil temperature significantly reduced total dry matter production, partitioning of dry matter to pods, and pod yields in both the cultivars. High air temperature had no significant effect on total flower production but significantly reduced the proportion of flowers setting pegs (fruit-set) and hence fruit numbers. In contrast, high soil temperature significantly reduced flower production, the proportion of pegs forming pods and 100 seed weight. The effects of high air and soil temperature were mostly additive and without interaction.

DORMANCY IN YAMS

SUMMARY The tubers of yam, principally those of Dioscorea rotundata (white Guinea yam) and D. alata (water or greater yam), are important staple foods and sources of carbohydrate in West Africa. Yams are grown in diverse environments ‐ from the high-rainfall forest zone on the coast to the seasonally arid savannas of West Africa, that is in situations in which the duration and the timing of the onset of the growing season vary appreciably. Dormancy in both underground and aerial tubers of the Dioscoreaceae is an important adaptive mechanism that helps to maintain organoleptic quality during storage and also ensures that tubers germinate at the start of the growing season. Plant breeders are especially keen to manipulate the duration of the dormant period in order to synchronize growth periods and, therefore, to produce more than one generation per year. The control of tuber dormancy, however, is poorly understood. This review examines critically those factors that aAect tuber initiation, dormancy and sprouting, and makes recommendations for future priorities in research.

Spikelet Proteomic Response to Combined Water Deficit and Heat Stress in Rice (Oryza sativa cv. N22)

In future climates, rice crops will be frequently exposed to water deficit and heat stress at the most sensitive flowering stage, causing spikelet sterility and yield losses. Water deficit alone and in combination with heat stress significantly reduced peduncle elongation, trapping 32% and 55% of spikelets within the leaf sheath, respectively. Trapped spikelets had lower spikelet fertility (66% in control) than those exserted normally (>93%). Average weighted fertility of exserted spikelets was lowest with heat stress (35%) but higher with combined stress (44%), suggesting acquired thermo-tolerance when preceded by water-deficit stress. Proteins favoring pollen germination, i.e., pollen allergens and beta expansin, were highly up-regulated with water deficit but were at normal levels under combined stress. The chaperonic heat shock transcripts and proteins were significantly up-regulated under combined stress compared with either heat or water deficit. The importance of spikelet proteins responsive to water deficit and heat stress to critical physiological processes during flowering is discussed.

Does susceptibility to heat stress confound screening for drought tolerance in rice

Drought affected rice areas are predicted to double by the end of this century, demanding greater tolerance in widely adapted mega-varieties. Progress on incorporating better drought tolerance has been slow due to lack of appropriate phenotyping protocols. Furthermore, existing protocols do not consider the effect of drought and heat interactions, especially during the critical flowering stage, which could lead to false conclusion about drought tolerance. Screening germplasm and mapping-populations to identify quantitative trait loci (QTL)/candidate genes for drought tolerance is usually conducted in hot dry seasons where water supply can be controlled. Hence, results from dry season drought screening in the field could be confounded by heat stress, either directly on heat sensitive processes such as pollination or indirectly by raising tissue temperature through reducing transpirational cooling under water deficit conditions. Drought-tolerant entries or drought-responsive candidate genes/QTL identified from germplasm highly susceptible to heat stress during anthesis/flowering have to be interpreted with caution. During drought screening, germplasm tolerant to water stress but highly susceptible to heat stress has to be excluded during dry and hot season screening. Responses to drought and heat stress in rice are compared and results from field and controlled environment experiments studying drought and heat tolerance and their interaction are discussed.