Tim Wheeler

Climate Change Impacts on Global Food Security

Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a “climate-smart food system” that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

Temperature variability and the yield of annual crops

Abstract Global production of annual crops will be affected by the increases in mean temperatures of 2–4°C expected towards the end of the 21st century. Within temperate regions, current cultivars of determinate annual crops will mature earlier, and hence yields will decline in response to warmer temperatures. Nevertheless, this negative effect of warmer temperatures should be countered by the increased rate of crop growth at elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, at least when there is sufficient water. Of more importance for the yield of annual seed crops may be changes in the frequency of hot (or cold) temperatures which are associated with warmer mean climates. The objectives of this paper are to review evidence for the importance of variability in temperature for annual crop yields, and to consider how the impacts of these events may be predicted. Evidence is presented for the importance of variability in temperature, independent of any substantial changes in mean seasonal temperature, for the yield of annual crops. Seed yields are particularly sensitive to brief episodes of hot temperatures if these coincide with critical stages of crop development. Hot temperatures at the time of flowering can reduce the potential number of seeds or grains that subsequently contribute to the crop yield. Three research needs are identified in order to provide a framework for predicting the impact of episodes of hot temperatures on the yields of annual crops: reliable seasonal weather forecasts, robust predictions of crop development, and crop simulation models which are able to quantify the effects of brief episodes of hot temperatures on seed yield.

Physiological and proteomic approaches to address heat tolerance during anthesis in rice (Oryza sativa L.)

Episodes of high temperature at anthesis, which in rice is the most sensitive stage to temperature, are expected to occur more frequently in future climates. The morphology of the reproductive organs and pollen number, and changes in anther protein expression, were studied in response to high temperature at anthesis in three rice (Oryza sativa L.) genotypes. Plants were exposed to 6 h of high (38 °C) and control (29 °C) temperature at anthesis and spikelets collected for morphological and proteomic analysis. Moroberekan was the most heat-sensitive genotype (18% spikelet fertility at 38 °C), while IR64 (48%) and N22 (71%) were moderately and highly heat tolerant, respectively. There were significant differences among the genotypes in anther length and width, apical and basal pore lengths, apical pore area, and stigma and pistil length. Temperature also affected some of these traits, increasing anther pore size and reducing stigma length. Nonetheless, variation in the number of pollen on the stigma could not be related to measured morphological traits. Variation in spikelet fertility was highly correlated (r=0.97, n=6) with the proportion of spikelets with ≥20 germinated pollen grains on the stigma. A 2D-gel electrophoresis showed 46 protein spots changing in abundance, of which 13 differentially expressed protein spots were analysed by MS/MALDI-TOF. A cold and a heat shock protein were found significantly up-regulated in N22, and this may have contributed to the greater heat tolerance of N22. The role of differentially expressed proteins and morphology during anther dehiscence and pollination in shaping heat tolerance and susceptibility is discussed.

Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops

Crop production is inherently sensitive to variability in climate. Temperature is a major determinant of the rate of plant development and, under climate change, warmer temperatures that shorten development stages of determinate crops will most probably reduce the yield of a given variety. Earlier crop flowering and maturity have been observed and documented in recent decades, and these are often associated with warmer (spring) temperatures. However, farm management practices have also changed and the attribution of observed changes in phenology to climate change per se is difficult. Increases in atmospheric [CO(2)] often advance the time of flowering by a few days, but measurements in FACE (free air CO(2) enrichment) field-based experiments suggest that elevated [CO(2)] has little or no effect on the rate of development other than small advances in development associated with a warmer canopy temperature. The rate of development (inverse of the duration from sowing to flowering) is largely determined by responses to temperature and photoperiod, and the effects of temperature and of photoperiod at optimum and suboptimum temperatures can be quantified and predicted. However, responses to temperature, and more particularly photoperiod, at supraoptimal temperature are not well understood. Analysis of a comprehensive data set of time to tassel initiation in maize (Zea mays) with a wide range of photoperiods above and below the optimum suggests that photoperiod modulates the negative effects of temperature above the optimum. A simulation analysis of the effects of prescribed increases in temperature (0-6 degrees C in +1 degree C steps) and temperature variability (0% and +50%) on days to tassel initiation showed that tassel initiation occurs later, and variability was increased, as the temperature exceeds the optimum in models both with and without photoperiod sensitivity. However, the inclusion of photoperiod sensitivity above the optimum temperature resulted in a higher apparent optimum temperature and less variability in the time of tassel initiation. Given the importance of changes in plant development for crop yield under climate change, the effects of photoperiod and temperature on development rates above the optimum temperature clearly merit further research, and some of the knowledge gaps are identified herein.

Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia

Climate change is a serious threat to crop productivity in regions that are already food insecure. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of eight major crops in Africa and South Asia using a systematic review and meta-analysis of data in 52 original publications from an initial screen of 1144 studies. Here we show that the projected mean change in yield of all crops is 8% by the 2050s in both regions. Across Africa, mean yield changes of 17% (wheat), 5% (maize), 15% (sorghum) and 10% (millet) and across South Asia of 16% (maize) and 11% (sorghum) were estimated. No mean change in yield was detected for rice. The limited number of studies identified for cassava, sugarcane and yams precluded any opportunity to conduct a meta-analysis for these crops. Variation about the projected mean yield change for all crops was smaller in studies that used an ensemble of >3 climate (GCM) models. Conversely, complex simulation studies that used biophysical crop models showed the greatest variation in mean yield changes. Evidence of crop yield impact in Africa and South Asia is robust for wheat, maize, sorghum and millet, and either inconclusive, absent or contradictory for rice, cassava and sugarcane.

Growth and yield of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) crops in response to CO2 and temperature

Crops of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Hereward) were grown within temperature gradient tunnels at a range of temperatures at either c. 350 or 700 μmol mol -1 CO 2 in 1991/92 and 1992/93 at Reading, UK. At terminal spikelet stage, leaf area was 45 % greater at elevated CO 2 in the first year due to more tillers, and was 30 % greater in the second year due to larger leaf areas on the primary tillers. At harvest maturity, total crop biomass was negatively related to mean seasonal temperature within each year and CO 2 treatment, due principally to shorter crop durations at the warmer temperatures. Biomass was 6-31% greater at elevated compared with normal CO 2 and was also affected by a positive interaction between temperature and CO 2 in the first year only. Seed yield per unit area was greater at cooler temperatures and at elevated CO 2 concentrations. A 7-44 % greater seed dry weight at elevated CO 2 in the first year was due to more ears per unit area and heavier grains. In the following year, mean seed dry weight was increased by > 72 % at elevated CO 2 , because grain numbers per ear did not decline with an increase in temperature at elevated CO 2 . Grain numbers were reduced by temperatures > 31°C immediately before anthesis at normal atmospheric CO 2 in 1992/93, and at both CO 2 concentrations in 1991/92. To quantify the impact of future climates of elevated CO 2 concentrations and warmer temperatures on wheat yields, consideration of both interactions between CO 2 and mean seasonal temperature, and possible effects of instantaneous temperatures on yield components at different CO 2 concentrations are required. Nevertheless, the results obtained suggest that the benefits to winter wheat grain yield from CO 2 doubling are offset by an increase in mean seasonal temperature of only 1.0 °C to 1.8 °C in the UK.

Introduction: food crops in a changing climate.

Changes in both the mean and the variability of climate, whether naturally forced, or due to human activities, pose a threat to crop production globally. This paper summarizes discussions of this issue at a meeting of the Royal Society in April 2005. Recent advances in understanding the sensitivity of crops to weather, climate and the levels of particular gases in the atmosphere indicate that the impact of these factors on crop yields and quality may be more severe than previously thought. There is increasing information on the importance to crop yields of extremes of temperature and rainfall at key stages of crop development. Agriculture will itself impact on the climate system and a greater understanding of these feedbacks is needed. Complex models are required to perform simulations of climate variability and change, together with predictions of how crops will respond to different climate variables. Variability of climate, such as that associated with El Niño events, has large impacts on crop production. If skilful predictions of the probability of such events occurring can be made a season or more in advance, then agricultural and other societal responses can be made. The development of strategies to adapt to variations in the current climate may also build resilience to changes in future climate. Africa will be the part of the world that is most vulnerable to climate variability and change, but knowledge of how to use climate information and the regional impacts of climate variability and change in Africa is rudimentary. In order to develop appropriate adaptation strategies globally, predictions about changes in the quantity and quality of food crops need to be considered in the context of the entire food chain from production to distribution, access and utilization. Recommendations for future research priorities are given.

Toward a Combined Seasonal Weather and Crop Productivity Forecasting System: Determination of the Working Spatial Scale

Abstract A methodology is presented for the development of a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system. The first stage of the methodology is the determination of the spatial scale(s) on which the system could operate; this determination has been made for the case of groundnut production in India. Rainfall is a dominant climatic determinant of groundnut yield in India. The relationship between yield and rainfall has been explored using data from 1966 to 1995. On the all-India scale, seasonal rainfall explains 52% of the variance in yield. On the subdivisional scale, correlations vary between variance r2 = 0.62 (significance level p < 10–4) and a negative correlation with r2 = 0.1 (p = 0.13). The spatial structure of the relationship between rainfall and groundnut yield has been explored using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. A coherent, large-scale pattern emerges for both rainfall and yield. On the subdivisional scale (∼300 km), the first principal component (PC) of ...

Effects of elevated growth temperature and carbon dioxide levels on some physicochemical properties of wheat starch

Abstract Crops of winter wheat (cv. Hereward) were grown in the field under double-skinned polyethylene tunnels in two consecutive seasons (1991–92 and 1992–93). Air containing ambient (350 ppm) or elevated (700 ppm) concentrations of carbon dioxide was circulated through the tunnels, and temperature gradients, typically from 1°C below ambient to 4–7°C above ambient, were maintained within each tunnel. Despite a shorter crop duration and warmer temperatures in the first season, most grain and starch properties showed a similar response to temperature between seasons. Thousand grain weight and grain starch content declined with increase in temperature (from 55±5 mg to 18±2 mg, and from 31±3 mg to 7±2 mg, respectively), the latter reflecting both decreases in granule sizes and fewer amyloplasts per endosperm. Contents of total amylose and lipid-free amylose increased with temperature (from 26±1% to 31±1%, and from 21±1% to 25±1%, respectively), but the contents of lipid-complexed amylose (5·2±1·5%) and lysophospholipids (0·9±0·2%) varied independently of temperature. Starch gelatinisation temperatures ranged from 57·5 to 64·5°C in the first season, and from 58·0 to 61·9°C in the second season, increasing with increase in temperature in both seasons, the data for the two seasons providing almost separate clusters. Gelatinisation enthalpy was constant in the first season (12·6±1 J/g amylopectin) and in the second season (15·5±0·5 J/g amylopectin) with no effect of temperature. The differences in carbon dioxide concentration had no consistent effects on the parameters measured, but small effects were discernible on thousand grain weight, starch content and lipid-free amylose content. There were also effects in certain treatment combinations, specifically at warmer temperatures in the first season and at cooler temperatures in the second season, on thousand grain weight, non-starch solids and lipid-complexed amylose contents.

Effect of elevated CO2 and high temperature on seed-set and grain quality of rice

Hybrid vigour may help overcome the negative effects of climate change in rice. A popular rice hybrid (IR75217H), a heat-tolerant check (N22), and a mega-variety (IR64) were tested for tolerance of seed-set and grain quality to high-temperature stress at anthesis at ambient and elevated [CO2]. Under an ambient air temperature of 29 °C (tissue temperature 28.3 °C), elevated [CO2] increased vegetative and reproductive growth, including seed yield in all three genotypes. Seed-set was reduced by high temperature in all three genotypes, with the hybrid and IR64 equally affected and twice as sensitive as the tolerant cultivar N22. No interaction occurred between temperature and [CO2] for seed-set. The hybrid had significantly more anthesed spikelets at all temperatures than IR64 and at 29 °C this resulted in a large yield advantage. At 35 °C (tissue temperature 32.9 °C) the hybrid had a higher seed yield than IR64 due to the higher spikelet number, but at 38 °C (tissue temperature 34–35 °C) there was no yield advantage. Grain gel consistency in the hybrid and IR64 was reduced by high temperatures only at elevated [CO2], while the percentage of broken grains increased from 10% at 29 °C to 35% at 38 °C in the hybrid. It is concluded that seed-set of hybrids is susceptible to short episodes of high temperature during anthesis, but that at intermediate tissue temperatures of 32.9 °C higher spikelet number (yield potential) of the hybrid can compensate to some extent. If the heat tolerance from N22 or other tolerant donors could be transferred into hybrids, yield could be maintained under the higher temperatures predicted with climate change.