Pamila Cristina Lima Siviero

Diferenciais de mortalidade: níveis e padrões segundo o sexo no município de São Paulo de 1920 a 2005

The aim of this study is to systematically analyze levels and patterns of sex differential in mortality rates in the city of Sao Paulo for a period of 85 years (1920-2005). Three indicators are used: the hiatus in life expectancy at birth; ratio between sexes among specific mortality rates by age; contribution of different ages in the hiatus in life expectancy at birth, based on the method of decomposing difference of life expectancy at birth proposed by the UN (1982). Generally, period trends observed in the city of Sao Paulo are similar to those found in developed countries, with some specificities. There is a temporal gap of 30 to 50 years in the long-term trend in the sex differential in mortality rate. The onset of the transition from age group to sex diferential was late, but it has become similar to developed countries more recently. Moreover, the analysis of different age contribution to the life expectancy at birth hiatus indicates that the decrease in the differential of the last five years is explained mainly by the decrease in male mortality at young ages. The decrease in death risk among adults and the elderly has also contributed to a significant percentage (about 30%) of the decrease in sex differential in mortality rates in this period. Thus, the results here shown suggest that the future behavior of sex differential in mortality rates will depend greatly on the heterogeneity of the death risk in advanced ages.

Incorporando a variabilidade no processo de identificação do modelo de máximo global no Grade of Membership (GoM): considerações metodológicas

The availability of increasingly complex and multidimensional datasets is one of the main causes for the increase in studies employing multivariate analyses based on fuzzy sets. Even though the Grade of Membership method has been widely used in Brazil for empirical studies in health and social sciences, issues regarding identifiability and stability of the final parameters estimated by GoM 3.4 software have not been thoroughly examined. Given the relevance of unique and stable parameters, Guedes et al. (2010) proposed an empirical method to locate a global maximum (GM) with stable parameters. However, the GM locator does not incorporate variability. In the present article, this limitation is circumvented by employing a weighted statistic - weight global maximum (WGM) - similar to the variation coefficient. This indicator does not affect disproportionately situations with very low mean deviations. The WGM locator is shown to decrease the distance of the identified model from the real structure, when compared with the GM locator.

Mortality differentials: levels and patterns according to sex in the city of São Paulo from 1920 to 2005

The aim of this study is to systematically analyze levels and patterns of sex differential in mortality rates in the city of Sao Paulo for a period of 85 years (1920-2005). Three indicators are used: the hiatus in life expectancy at birth; ratio between sexes among specific mortality rates by age; contribution of different ages in the hiatus in life expectancy at birth, based on the method of decomposing difference of life expectancy at birth proposed by the UN (1982). Generally, period trends observed in the city of Sao Paulo are similar to those found in developed countries, with some specificities. There is a temporal gap of 30 to 50 years in the long-term trend in the sex differential in mortality rate. The onset of the transition from age group to sex diferential was late, but it has become similar to developed countries more recently. Moreover, the analysis of different age contribution to the life expectancy at birth hiatus indicates that the decrease in the differential of the last five years is explained mainly by the decrease in male mortality at young ages. The decrease in death risk among adults and the elderly has also contributed to a significant percentage (about 30%) of the decrease in sex differential in mortality rates in this period. Thus, the results here shown suggest that the future behavior of sex differential in mortality rates will depend greatly on the heterogeneity of the death risk in advanced ages.

Diferenciales de mortalidad: niveles y patrones según sexo en el municipio de São Paulo de 1920 a 2005

The aim of this study is to systematically analyze levels and patterns of sex differential in mortality rates in the city of Sao Paulo for a period of 85 years (1920-2005). Three indicators are used: the hiatus in life expectancy at birth; ratio between sexes among specific mortality rates by age; contribution of different ages in the hiatus in life expectancy at birth, based on the method of decomposing difference of life expectancy at birth proposed by the UN (1982). Generally, period trends observed in the city of Sao Paulo are similar to those found in developed countries, with some specificities. There is a temporal gap of 30 to 50 years in the long-term trend in the sex differential in mortality rate. The onset of the transition from age group to sex diferential was late, but it has become similar to developed countries more recently. Moreover, the analysis of different age contribution to the life expectancy at birth hiatus indicates that the decrease in the differential of the last five years is explained mainly by the decrease in male mortality at young ages. The decrease in death risk among adults and the elderly has also contributed to a significant percentage (about 30%) of the decrease in sex differential in mortality rates in this period. Thus, the results here shown suggest that the future behavior of sex differential in mortality rates will depend greatly on the heterogeneity of the death risk in advanced ages.

Aspectos práticos na identificação de um modelo Grade of Membership (GoM) de máximo global: o uso da moda das probabilidades estimadas

R. bras. Est. Pop., Rio de Janeiro, v. 28, n. 2, p.473-478, jul./dez. 2011 * Doutor em Demografia, professor adjunto da Pós-Graduação em Gestão Integrada do Território/Univale, cientista colaborador do Environmental Change Initiative/Brown University; cientista colaborador do Anthropological Center for Training on Global Environmental Change/Indiana University ** Mestre e doutoranda em Demografia do Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional – Cedeplar/UFMG. *** Ph.D in Population Dynamics, professora adjunta nível III do Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional – Cedeplar/UFMG. Aspectos práticos na identificação de um modelo Grade of Membership (GoM) de máximo global: o uso da moda das probabilidades estimadas