Simone Wajnman

Das causas às conseqüências econômicas da transição demográfica no Brasil

*** As relacoes entre crescimento populacional e desenvolvimento desafiam estudiosos por muito tempo e referem-se tanto aos impactos do crescimento e estrutura da populacao sobre o crescimento e a distribuicao da renda (crescimento economico), quanto sobre os impactos do crescimento economico sobre o crescimento e a estrutura da populacao. Ha cerca de tres decadas discutiam-se as causas e consequencias do crescimento populacional. Hoje, discutem-se as causas e consequencias da transicao demografica. Muita coisa mudou no mundo e, do ponto de vista demografico, a maior mudanca foi a universalizacao do processo de transicao demografica. Expressoes como “bomba demografica” foram substituidas por “bonus demografico” ou “janela de oportunidades”. Este artigo pretende examinar como essas relacoes entre populacao e economia foram interpretadas e discutidas e como influenciaram o pensamento, a pesquisa academica e, eventualmente, algumas propostas de politicas publicas no Brasil. O artigo procura sumariar os avancos que estao em curso na pesquisa sobre populacao e economia e suas implicacoes para as politicas publicas e o desenvolvimento. Palavras-chave: Transicao demografica. Envelhecimento populacional. Desenvolvimento. Crescimento economico. Politicas publicas.

Efeitos da estrutura etária nos gastos com internação no Sistema Único de Saúde: uma análise de decomposição para duas áreas metropolitanas brasileiras

This paper examines the impact of changes in population age distribution on inpatient care expenditures in Brazil. The authors use data from two highly distinct metropolitan areas, Curitiba (Parana State) and Belem (Parana State), in order to determine to what extent current differences in expenditures are explained by differences in: (i) age distributions, (ii) age-specific expenditures (price effects), and (iii) utilization rates (rate effects). The study also looks at the consequences of future changes in age distribution by simulating each of the effects (age distribution, price, and rate) under the projected population age distribution for Brazil in 2050. The results show that only 13% of current differences in health expenditures in Curitiba and Belem are explained by differences in age distribution. Most of the difference is due to price effect (72%), probably because of large socioeconomic and epidemiological discrepancies in these two metropolitan areas. However, simulations for 2050 suggest that most future changes in inpatient care will be explained by population aging effects.

Análise dos determinantes da participação no mercado de trabalho dos idosos em São Paulo

The aim of this article is to analyze the determinants of the probability of being in the labor force and the number of working hours per week of persons over the age of 60 in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, in 2000. The study pays special attention to the influence of the health of elderly persons on their participation in the labor force. The dataset used in this study is the SABE, a survey on Health, Well-Being, and Aging in Latin America and the Caribbean, with funding from the Pan American Health Organization. To control the bias of endogeneity resulting from the relationship between a persons state of health and his or her participation on the labor market, the Instrumental Variable method is used. Various measures of health were used in order to analyze different effects of the condition of the health of elderly persons in the labor supply. The results indicate that, among men, variables representing economic status carry considerable weight in explaining their participation in the labor supply. Among women, variables more closely related to family composition are important in explaining the results of the estimations. Having poor health means less probability of being active and of working a greater number of hours per week. Among men, the results of the models related to health conditions estimated by instruments suggest that the effect of participating in the labor force for the elderly could be negative to their health. This may be because of possible truly negative affects on health, or because the working elderly have better schooling and better economic status. This means that they use health services more frequently and are able to describe their health problems more clearly.

Esposas como principais provedoras de renda familiar

In this article three questions related to wives who outearn their husbands in Brazil are examined. First we discuss the demographic and socio-economic characteristics associated with the probability that the wife will be the main earner. Second, the patterns of the division of labor among couples where the women are the primary earners are examined, especially as to whether the women spend more time on domestic work than their husbands. Third, we quantify differentials in income between wife and husband earners and examine how these differentials are explained by differences in (1) professional characteristics between men and women and (2) discrimination.

Integrando oferta e demanda de serviços de saneamento: análise hierárquica do panorama urbano brasileiro no ano 2000

The paper aims at identifying the main determinants of the presence of water supply and sanitation services, for Brazilian urban households in 2000. The supply and demand dimensions were converted in variables, using data from IBGE and Receita Federal. Descriptive and analytical statistics were performed, in the last case through multiple regression with hierarchical model. In explaining the presence of the services in the households, the supply perspective showed more relevant than the demand variables, probably due to the extreme regional differentials in the Country. In supply dimension the categories that presented the highest chances were the Southeast region and the Autarchic management model. About the demand perspective, the lowest chances are in households were the head are man, single, younger, black and with lower schooling, as well as the family gains are lower.

A relação entre renda e composição domiciliar dos idosos no Brasil: um estudo sobre o impacto do recebimento do Benefício de Prestação Continuada

This paper analyzes the impact of income for the elderly from the Continuous Cash Benefit Transfer Program (BPC) on the living arrangements of elderly poor persons. This benefit consists of income received monthly, equivalent to one minimum wage, by elderly persons over age 65 whose monthly per capita family income is below one-fourth of the minimum wage. This discussion is relevant in the current Brazilian context, which has been marked by rapid population aging, broad changes in living arrangements and an expansion of social security benefits for the elderly. Two hypothesis discussed in the literature were investigated, using the difference-in-difference statistical method and based on data from the 2002 and 2004 PNADs. It was seen that this unconditional income transfer would either (i) increase the probability of the elderly persons involved to live independently, or (ii) increase the probability of co-residence with family due to the attraction exerted by this additional income. The results obtained show that the receiving of the BPC income increases the probability that beneficiaries will tend to seek independents living arrangements.

Efectos de la migración sobre el crecimiento poblacional a largo plazo de las provincias cubanas

Over the last decades, Cuba has shown very low fertility levels in addition to significant negative migration flows. Moreover, within the country, there is intensive population mobility, characterized by different migration patterns across Cuba´s provinces. In this article, we look at the effect of both internal and international migration flows on long term population growth in Cuba and in its provinces. For that, we estimate reproduction and population growth measures using conventional demographic methods and the methodology proposed by Preston and Wang (2007), which is based on variable-r methods. Given the current demographic patterns, our analysis reveals important negative consequences for the size of the Cuban population in the future when migration effects are accounted for.

Reforma da Previdência Social: simulações e impactos sobre os diferenciais de sexo

Today, average retirement benefits in Brazil are lower for women than for men, but women are the main pension receivers (usually due to the death of their husbands). Women also make up the majority of the beneficiaries of the Brazilian social Security. These facts are certainly reflections of women’s earnings while working (they usually work less and earn less on the labor market). At the same time that they receive lower average benefits, older women are more economically dependent on social security benefits and on the earnings of other members of their families. The present article consists of an investigation into possible changes in the rules on eligibility for receiving retirement and pension benefits due to death. Such changes are frequently mentioned by specialists as necessary in order to balance the Brazilian Social Security budget. To this end, the author discusses how changes may affect the inequalities in income between the sexes in old age and thus bring in a further important dimension in evaluating proposals for reforming the system.Today, average retirement benefits in Brazil are lower for women than for men, but women are the main pension receivers (usually due to the death of their husbands). Women also make up the majority of the beneficiaries of the Brazilian social Security. These facts are certainly reflections of womens earnings while working (they usually work less and earn less on the labor market). At the same time that they receive lower average benefits, older women are more economically dependent on social security benefits and on the earnings of other members of their families. The present article consists of an investigation into possible changes in the rules on eligibility for receiving retirement and pension benefits due to death. Such changes are frequently mentioned by specialists as necessary in order to balance the Brazilian Social Security budget. To this end, the author discusses how changes may affect the inequalities in income between the sexes in old age and thus bring in a further important dimension in evaluating proposals for reforming the system.

La relación entre ingresos y composición domiciliaria de los ancianos en Brasil: un estudio sobre el impacto de la recepción del Beneficio de Prestación Continuada

This paper analyzes the impact of income for the elderly from the Continuous Cash Benefit Transfer Program (BPC) on the living arrangements of elderly poor persons. This benefit consists of income received monthly, equivalent to one minimum wage, by elderly persons over age 65 whose monthly per capita family income is below one-fourth of the minimum wage. This discussion is relevant in the current Brazilian context, which has been marked by rapid population aging, broad changes in living arrangements and an expansion of social security benefits for the elderly. Two hypothesis discussed in the literature were investigated, using the difference-in-difference statistical method and based on data from the 2002 and 2004 PNADs. It was seen that this unconditional income transfer would either (i) increase the probability of the elderly persons involved to live independently, or (ii) increase the probability of co-residence with family due to the attraction exerted by this additional income. The results obtained show that the receiving of the BPC income increases the probability that beneficiaries will tend to seek independents living arrangements.

The relationship between income and living arrangements of elderly persons in Brazil: the impact of the Continuous Cash Benefit Transfer Program (BPC)

This paper analyzes the impact of income for the elderly from the Continuous Cash Benefit Transfer Program (BPC) on the living arrangements of elderly poor persons. This benefit consists of income received monthly, equivalent to one minimum wage, by elderly persons over age 65 whose monthly per capita family income is below one-fourth of the minimum wage. This discussion is relevant in the current Brazilian context, which has been marked by rapid population aging, broad changes in living arrangements and an expansion of social security benefits for the elderly. Two hypothesis discussed in the literature were investigated, using the difference-in-difference statistical method and based on data from the 2002 and 2004 PNADs. It was seen that this unconditional income transfer would either (i) increase the probability of the elderly persons involved to live independently, or (ii) increase the probability of co-residence with family due to the attraction exerted by this additional income. The results obtained show that the receiving of the BPC income increases the probability that beneficiaries will tend to seek independents living arrangements.