Paolo Oddo

Effects of Tropical Cyclones on Ocean Heat Transport in a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model

AbstractIn this paper the interplay between tropical cyclones (TCs) and the Northern Hemispheric ocean heat transport (OHT) is investigated. In particular, results from a numerical simulation of the twentieth-century and twenty-first-century climates, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) twentieth-century run (20C3M) and A1B scenario protocols, respectively, have been analyzed. The numerical simulations have been performed using a state-of-the-art global atmosphere–ocean–sea ice coupled general circulation model (CGCM) with relatively high-resolution (T159) in the atmosphere. The CGCM skill in reproducing a realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from the simulation of the twentieth century with available observations. The model simulates tropical cyclone–like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. Specifically, the simulated TCs exhibit realistic structure, geographical distribution, and interannual variability, indicating that...

The CIRCE Simulations: Regional Climate Change Projections with Realistic Representation of the Mediterranean Sea

In this article, the authors describe an innovative multimodel system developed within the Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment (CIRCE) European Union (EU) Sixth Framework Programme (FP6) project and used to produce simulations of the Mediterranean Sea regional climate. The models include high-resolution Mediterranean Sea components, which allow assessment of the role of the basin and in particular of the air–sea feedbacks in the climate of the region. The models have been integrated from 1951 to 2050, using observed radiative forcings during the first half of the simulation period and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario during the second half. The projections show a substantial warming (about 1.5°–2°C) and a significant decrease of precipitation (about 5%) in the region for the scenario period. However, locally the changes might be even larger. In the same period, the projected surface net heat loss de...

Future Climate Projections

In this chapter we show results from an innovative multi-model system used to produce climate simulations with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. The models (hereafter simply referred to as the “CIRCE models”) are a set of five coupled climate models composed by a high-resolution Mediterranean Sea coupled with a relatively high-resolution atmospheric component and a global ocean, which allow, for the first time, to explore and assess the role of the Mediterranean Sea and its complex, small-scale dynamics in the climate of the region. In particular, they make it possible to investigate the influence that local air-sea feedbacks might exert on the mechanisms responsible for climate variability and change in the European continent, Middle East and Northern Africa. In many regards, they represent a new and innovative approach to the problem of regionalization of climate projections in the Mediterranean region.

Future projections of the surface heat and water budgets of the Mediterranean Sea in an ensemble of coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models

Within the CIRCE project “Climate change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment”, an ensemble of high resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models (AORCMs) are used to simulate the Mediterranean climate for the period 1950–2050. For the first time, realistic net surface air-sea fluxes are obtained. The sea surface temperature (SST) variability is consistent with the atmospheric forcing above it and oceanic constraints. The surface fluxes respond to external forcing under a warming climate and show an equivalent trend in all models. This study focuses on the present day and on the evolution of the heat and water budget over the Mediterranean Sea under the SRES-A1B scenario. On the contrary to previous studies, the net total heat budget is negative over the present period in all AORCMs and satisfies the heat closure budget controlled by a net positive heat gain at the strait of Gibraltar in the present climate. Under climate change scenario, some models predict a warming of the Mediterranean Sea from the ocean surface (positive net heat flux) in addition to the positive flux at the strait of Gibraltar for the 2021–2050 period. The shortwave and latent flux are increasing and the longwave and sensible fluxes are decreasing compared to the 1961–1990 period due to a reduction of the cloud cover and an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and SSTs over the 2021–2050 period. The AORCMs provide a good estimates of the water budget with a drying of the region during the twenty-first century. For the ensemble mean, he decrease in precipitation and runoff is about 10 and 15% respectively and the increase in evaporation is much weaker, about 2% compared to the 1961–1990 period which confirm results obtained in recent studies. Despite a clear consistency in the trends and results between the models, this study also underlines important differences in the model set-ups, methodology and choices of some physical parameters inducing some difference in the various air-sea fluxes. An evaluation of the uncertainty sources and possible improvement for future generation of AORCMs highlights the importance of the parameterisation of the ocean albedo, rivers and cloud cover.

A Prototype of Ship Routing Decision Support System for an Operational Oceanographic Service

A prototype for an operational ship routing Decision Support System using time-dependent meteo-oceanographic fields is presented. The control variable is ship course, which is modified using a directional resolution of less than 27 degrees. The shortest path is recovered using a modified Dijkstra’s algorithm. Safety restrictions for avoiding surfriding and parametric rolling according to the guidelines of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) are implemented. Numerical experiments tailored on a medium-size vessel are presented and perspectives of development of the system are outlined.

Toward Marine Environmental Predictions in the Mediterranean Sea Coastal Areas: A Monitoring Approach

Marine environmental predictions involve the observation and modeling of physical, biogeochemical processes and parameters, fused by advanced data assimilation schemes that optimally merge the observational and numerical modeling information in order to produce forecasts. The result of such system should be interfaced with socio-economic models of sustainable development and management of marine resources. Fusing the deterministic dynamical information about the marine ecosystem with the socio-economic and political knowledge of the marine environment has not been tried yet but it is one of the outstanding challenges in integrated coastal management studies. This paper tries to show a scientific strategy to predict the physical and biochemical components toward marine environmental predictions, being aware that some considerations could be changed in view of the integration with socio-economic models and issues. Here we use prediction in total analogy with forecasting and thus as synonymous of deterministic prognosis of dynamical variables from a pre-defined initial state of the system.

Mediterranean extreme precipitation: a multi-model assessment

Exploiting the added value of the ensemble of high-resolution model simulations provided by the Med-CORDEX coordinated initiative, an updated assessment of Mediterranean extreme precipitation events as represented in different observational, reanalysis and modelling datasets is presented. A spatiotemporal characterisation of the long-term statistics of extreme precipitation is performed, using a number of different diagnostic indices. Employing a novel approach based on the timing of extreme precipitation events a number of physically consistent subregions are defined. The comparison of different diagnostics over the Mediterranean domain and physically homogeneous sub-domains is presented and discussed, focussing on the relative impact of several model configuration features (resolution, coupling, physical parameterisations) on the performance in reproducing extreme precipitation events. It is found that the agreement between the observed and modelled long-term statistics of extreme precipitation is more sensitive to the model physics, in particular convective parameterisation, than to other model configurations such as resolution and coupling.

The Mean Sea Level Equation and Its Application to the Mediterranean Sea

Aformalismtoobtainameansealevelequation(MSLE)is constructedfor anylimitedoceanregionand/or the global ocean by considering the mass conservation equation with compressible effects and a linear equation of state. The MSLE contains buoyancy fluxes terms representing the steric effects and the mass flux is represented by surface water fluxes and volume transport terms. The MSLE is studied for the Mediterranean Sea case using a simulation experiment for the decade 1999‐2008. It is found that the Mediterranean MSL tendency is made of a steric contribution that is almost periodic in time superimposed on a stochasticlike signal due to the mass balance, dominating the MSL tendency. The MSL tendency stochastic-like term is a result of the imbalance between the volume flux at Gibraltar and the area average surface water flux.

River runoff influences on the Central Mediterranean overturning circulation

The role of riverine freshwater inflow on the Central Mediterranean Overturning Circulation (CMOC) was studied using a high-resolution ocean model with a complete distribution of rivers in the Adriatic and Ionian catchment areas. The impact of river runoff on the Adriatic and Ionian Sea basins was assessed by a twin experiment, with and without runoff, from 1999 to 2012. This study tries to show the connection between the Adriatic as a marginal sea containing the downwelling branch of the anti-estuarine CMOC and the large runoff occurring there. It is found that the multiannual CMOC is a persistent anti-estuarine structure with secondary estuarine cells that strengthen in years of large realistic river runoff. The CMOC is demonstrated to be controlled by wind forcing at least as much as by buoyancy fluxes. It is found that river runoff affects the CMOC strength, enhancing the amplitude of the secondary estuarine cells and reducing the intensity of the dominant anti-estuarine cell. A large river runoff can produce a positive buoyancy flux without switching off the antiestuarine CMOC cell, but a particularly low heat flux and wind work with normal river runoff can reverse it. Overall by comparing experiments with, without and with unrealistically augmented runoff we demonstrate that rivers affect the CMOC strength but they can never represent its dominant forcing mechanism and the potential role of river runoff has to be considered jointly with wind work and heat flux, as they largely contribute to the energy budget of the basin. Looking at the downwelling branch of the CMOC in the Adriatic basin, rivers are demonstrated to locally reduce the volume of Adriatic dense water formed in the Southern Adriatic Sea as a result of increased water stratification. The spreading of the Adriatic dense water into the Ionian abyss is affected as well: dense waters overflowing the Otranto Strait are less dense in a realistic runoff regime, with respect to no runoff experiment, and confined to a narrower band against the Italian shelf with less lateral spreading toward the Ionian Sea center.

Coupling hydrodynamic and wave models: first step and sensitivity experiments in the Mediterranean Sea

This work describes the first step towards a fully coupled modelling system composed of an ocean circulation and a wind wave model. Sensitivity experiments are presented for the Mediterranean Sea where the hydrodynamic model NEMO is coupled with the third-generation wave model WaveWatchIII (WW3). Both models are implemented at 1/16° horizontal resolution and are forced by ECMWF 1/4° horizontal resolution atmospheric fields. The models are two-way coupled at hourly intervals exchanging the following fields: sea surface currents and temperature are transferred from NEMO to WW3 by modifying the mean momentum transfer of waves and the wind speed stability parameter, respectively. The neutral drag coefficient computed by WW3 is then passed to NEMO, which computes the surface stress. Five-year (2009–2013) numerical experiments were carried out in both uncoupled and coupled mode. In order to validate the modelling system, numerical results were compared with coastal and drifting buoys and remote sensing data. The results show that the coupling of currents with waves improves the representation of the wave spectrum. However, the wave-induced drag coefficient shows only minor improvements in NEMO circulation fields, such as temperature, salinity, and currents.