Adriana Carillo

The CIRCE Simulations: Regional Climate Change Projections with Realistic Representation of the Mediterranean Sea

In this article, the authors describe an innovative multimodel system developed within the Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment (CIRCE) European Union (EU) Sixth Framework Programme (FP6) project and used to produce simulations of the Mediterranean Sea regional climate. The models include high-resolution Mediterranean Sea components, which allow assessment of the role of the basin and in particular of the air–sea feedbacks in the climate of the region. The models have been integrated from 1951 to 2050, using observed radiative forcings during the first half of the simulation period and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario during the second half. The projections show a substantial warming (about 1.5°–2°C) and a significant decrease of precipitation (about 5%) in the region for the scenario period. However, locally the changes might be even larger. In the same period, the projected surface net heat loss de...

Med-CORDEX initiative for Mediterranean climate studies

The Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change “hot spots” of the 21st century, and the physical mechanisms underlying this finding are still not clear. Furthermore complex interactions and feedbacks involving ocean-atmosphere-land-biogeochemical processes play a prominent role in modulating the climate and environment of the Mediterranean region on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Therefore it is critical to provide robust climate change information for use in Vulnerability/Impact/Adaptation assessment studies considering the Mediterranean as a fully coupled environmental system. The Med-CORDEX initiative aims at coordinating the Mediterranean climate modeling community towards the development of fully coupled regional climate simulations, improving all relevant components of the system, from atmosphere and ocean dynamics to land surface, hydrology and biogeochemical processes. The primary goals of Med-CORDEX are to improve understanding of past climate variability and trends, and to provide more accurate and reliable future projections, assessing in a quantitative and robust way the added value of using high resolution and coupled regional climate models. The coordination activities and the scientific outcomes of Med-CORDEX can produce an important framework to foster the development of regional earth system models in several key regions worldwide.

Future Climate Projections

In this chapter we show results from an innovative multi-model system used to produce climate simulations with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. The models (hereafter simply referred to as the “CIRCE models”) are a set of five coupled climate models composed by a high-resolution Mediterranean Sea coupled with a relatively high-resolution atmospheric component and a global ocean, which allow, for the first time, to explore and assess the role of the Mediterranean Sea and its complex, small-scale dynamics in the climate of the region. In particular, they make it possible to investigate the influence that local air-sea feedbacks might exert on the mechanisms responsible for climate variability and change in the European continent, Middle East and Northern Africa. In many regards, they represent a new and innovative approach to the problem of regionalization of climate projections in the Mediterranean region.

Transport estimates at the western section of the Strait of Gibraltar: A combined experimental and numerical modeling study

[1] Three-yearlong time series of Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) observations at a single station in Espartel Sill (Strait of Gibraltar) were used to compute an outflow of Q2 = � 0.82 Sv through the main channel. The cross-strait structure of the velocity field or the outflow through a secondary channel north of the submarine ridge of Majuan in Espartel section is not captured by observations so that an improved version of a numerical model (CEPOM) has been used to fill the observational gap. Previously, the model performance has been checked against historical data sets by comparing harmonic constants of the main diurnal and semidiurnal constituents from observed and modeled data at different sites of the strait. Considering the great complexity of tidal dynamics in the area, the comparison is quite satisfactory and validates the model to infer the exchange at longer timescales. Using a ‘‘climatological’’ April in the simulation, extracting a ‘‘single station’’ from the model at the same position as the monitoring station and processing the data similarly, the model gives an outflow through the southern channel 13% higher than observations. The inclusion of the cross-strait structure of velocity reduces the computed outflow through the southern channel, whereas the contribution of the northern channel brings the total outflow close to that computed using a single station (5% smaller). If the same correction is applied to observations, the total outflow would reduce to Q2 = � 0.78 Sv. The paper also assesses the importance of eddy fluxes to the total outflow, their contribution being negligible (� 5%).

Future projections of the surface heat and water budgets of the Mediterranean Sea in an ensemble of coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models

Within the CIRCE project “Climate change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment”, an ensemble of high resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models (AORCMs) are used to simulate the Mediterranean climate for the period 1950–2050. For the first time, realistic net surface air-sea fluxes are obtained. The sea surface temperature (SST) variability is consistent with the atmospheric forcing above it and oceanic constraints. The surface fluxes respond to external forcing under a warming climate and show an equivalent trend in all models. This study focuses on the present day and on the evolution of the heat and water budget over the Mediterranean Sea under the SRES-A1B scenario. On the contrary to previous studies, the net total heat budget is negative over the present period in all AORCMs and satisfies the heat closure budget controlled by a net positive heat gain at the strait of Gibraltar in the present climate. Under climate change scenario, some models predict a warming of the Mediterranean Sea from the ocean surface (positive net heat flux) in addition to the positive flux at the strait of Gibraltar for the 2021–2050 period. The shortwave and latent flux are increasing and the longwave and sensible fluxes are decreasing compared to the 1961–1990 period due to a reduction of the cloud cover and an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and SSTs over the 2021–2050 period. The AORCMs provide a good estimates of the water budget with a drying of the region during the twenty-first century. For the ensemble mean, he decrease in precipitation and runoff is about 10 and 15% respectively and the increase in evaporation is much weaker, about 2% compared to the 1961–1990 period which confirm results obtained in recent studies. Despite a clear consistency in the trends and results between the models, this study also underlines important differences in the model set-ups, methodology and choices of some physical parameters inducing some difference in the various air-sea fluxes. An evaluation of the uncertainty sources and possible improvement for future generation of AORCMs highlights the importance of the parameterisation of the ocean albedo, rivers and cloud cover.

Hydraulic Criticality of the Exchange Flow through the Strait of Gibraltar

Abstract The hydraulic state of the exchange circulation through the Strait of Gibraltar is defined using a recently developed critical condition that accounts for cross-channel variations in layer thickness and velocity, applied to the output of a high-resolution three-dimensional numerical model simulating the tidal exchange. The numerical model uses a coastal-following curvilinear orthogonal grid, which includes, in addition to the Strait of Gibraltar, the Gulf of Cadiz and the Alboran Sea. The model is forced at the open boundaries through the specification of the surface tidal elevation that is characterized by the two principal semidiurnal and two diurnal harmonics: M2, S2, O1, and K1. The simulation covers an entire tropical month. The hydraulic analysis is carried out approximating the continuous vertical stratification first as a two-layer system and then as a three-layer system. In the latter, the transition zone, generated by entrainment and mixing between the Atlantic and Mediterranean flows, ...

Wave energy potential in the Mediterranean sea: Design and development of DSS-WebGIS “waves energy”

GIS technologies are able to provide useful tools for estimating the energy resource from the sea waves, assessing whether this energy is exploitable and evaluating possible environmental impacts. The idea to convert the energy associated with the marine wave motion (both off-shore and coastal) into exploitable electrical energy is not new and over time several projects have been developed, aiming at the implementation of devices for electrical energy generation from the sea. However, compared to other well-established renewable sources (such as wind, solar or biomass), the exploitation of the tidal power, is currently only in prototype form. Nevertheless, it has shown very promising potentiality, as also emerges from the activities currently carried-out by public institutions and private stakeholders.

Installing U-OWC devices along Italian coasts

In the last decades, the research has directed its efforts and resources paper is to investigate towards the possibility to incorporate wave energy converters, into the traditional maritime breakwaters to combine classical use with new opportunities and developments (for example, the Green Ports). Since the nineties, the OWC (Oscillating Water Column) plants were developed at full scale to produce electrical power from ocean waves. For instance, a new plant was built in Mutriku (Spain) recently.A new kind of OWC caisson, named U-OWC or REWEC3, which has the advantage to obtain an impressive natural resonance without any device for phase control, has been patented by Boccotti [1]. This new U-OWC device gives performances better than those of a conventional OWC either with small wind waves or with high waves [2,3,4]. The properties of the REWEC3 have been verified with two small-scale field experiments carried out in the natural ocean engineering laboratory NOEL of Reggio Calabria off the eastern coast of the Sicily Channel [5–7]. The aim of the present two sites along Italian coasts for possible installations of REWEC3 devices: i) the port of Civitavecchia (Rome, Italy)in the Tyrrhenian sea; ii) the port of Pantelleria, in the Sicily Channel.Copyright

Coupling of Wave Data and Underwater Acoustic Measurements in a Maritime High-Traffic Coastal Area: A Case Study in the Strait of Sicily

AbstractUnderwater acoustic monitoring combined with real-time sea surface observations and numerical model forecasts could improve the efficiency of natural and anthropogenic sound source discrimination. In this work, acoustic sound pressure levels at different frequencies were compared with significant wave heights, measured using an X-band radar system, and then matched against independent data derived from a Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model in order to confirm their reliability. The acoustic data were recorded from a fixed buoy located in the Sicilian Channel at 4.9 km from the coast and 33 km from the X-band radar system installed at Cape San Marco (in the southwest region of Sicily). All data were acquired during two different periods: 28 February–16 March 2015 and 23 April–27 May 2015. The level of noise at the 16-Hz octave band showed the best linear correlation , with in situ radar observations of significant wave height. Radar measurements of wave height coupled with in situ acoustic meas...

Marine Energy Exploitation in the Mediterranean Region: Steps Forward and Challenges

Technologies for the conversion of Marine Energy (ME) into electricity are now ready for full-scale deployment in farms of devices, making the final step from demonstration to operability and commercial exploitation. Although marine energy is more abundant along the Atlantic and Nordic European coasts, significant resources are also available in the Mediterranean Sea, opening up new perspectives for sustainable energy production in sensitive coastal areas and for the economic development of Southern Europe. The implementation of ME converters in the Mediterranean is also liable to induce significant technological advancements, as the low energy levels impose more restrictive constraints on device efficiency and environmental compatibility, while the milder climate allows the testing of concepts and prototypes in the natural environment at more affordable costs. Research institutions and industrial players in Mediterranean countries have in fact already taken up the challenge. The energy sector now adds up to the many different traditional maritime activities and to the new ocean-related industries that are developing, potentially exacerbating the competition for the use of marine space in the Mediterranean region. As the prospective sea use patterns are rapidly changing, an adequate international legal and policy framework needs to be designed for the coherent management of sea space, and Marine Spatial Planning needs to be finally implemented. To this end, the creation of transnational clusters of stakeholders is expected to be an effective catalyzer.