Paolo Spolaore

Increasing incidence and mortality of infective endocarditis: a population-based study through a record-linkage system

BackgroundFew population-based studies provide epidemiological data on infective endocarditis (IE). Aim of the study is to analyze incidence and outcomes of IE in the Veneto Region (North-Eastern Italy).MethodsResidents with a first hospitalization for IE in 2000-2008 were extracted from discharge data and linked to mortality records to estimate 365-days survival. Etiology was retrieved in subsets of this cohort by discharge codes and by linkage to a microbiological database. Risk factors for mortality were assessed through logistic regression.Results1,863 subjects were hospitalized for IE, with a corresponding crude rate of 4.4 per 100,000 person-years, increasing from 4.1 in 2000-2002 to 4.9 in 2006-2008 (p = 0.003). Median age was 68 years; 39% of subjects were hospitalized in the three preceding months. 23% of patients underwent a cardiac valve procedure in the index admission or in the following year. Inhospital mortality was 14% (19% including hospital transfers); 90-days and 365-days mortality rose through the study years. Mortality increased with age and the Charlson comorbidity index, in subjects with previous hospitalizations for heart failure, and (in the subcohort with microbiological data) in IE due to Staphylococci (40% of IE).ConclusionsThe study demonstrates an increasing incidence and mortality for IE over the last decade. Analyses of electronic archives provide a region-wide picture of IE, overcoming referral biases affecting single clinic or multicentric studies, and therefore represent a first fundamental step to detect critical issues related to IE.

Pattern and determinants of hospitalization during heat waves: an ecologic study

BackgroundNumerous studies have investigated mortality during a heatwave, while few have quantified heat associated morbidity. Our aim was to investigate the relationship between hospital admissions and intensity, duration and timing of heatwave across the summer months.MethodsThe study area (Veneto Region, Italy) holds 4577408 inhabitants (on January 1st, 2003), and is subdivided in seven provinces with 60 hospitals and about 20000 beds for acute care. Five consecutive heatwaves (three or more consecutive days with Humidex above 40°C) occurred during summer 2002 and 2003 in the region. From the regional computerized archive of hospital discharge records, we extracted the daily count of hospital admissions for people aged ≥75, from June 1 through August 31 in 2002 and 2003. Among people aged over 74 years, daily hospital admissions for disorders of fluid and electrolyte balance, acute renal failure, and heat stroke (grouped in a single nosologic entity, heat diseases, HD), respiratory diseases (RD), circulatory diseases (CD), and a reference category chosen a priori (fractures of the femur, FF) were independently analyzed by Generalized Estimating Equations.ResultsHeatwave duration, not intensity, increased the risk of hospital admissions for HD and RD by, respectively, 16% (p < .0001) and 5% (p < .0001) with each additional day of heatwave duration. At least four consecutive hot humid days were required to observe a major increase in hospital admissions, the excesses being more than twofold for HD (p < .0001) and about 50% for RD (p < .0001). Hospital admissions for HD peaked equally at the first heatwave (early June) and last heatwave (August) in 2004 as did RD. No correlation was found for FF or CD admissions.ConclusionThe first four days of an heatwave had only minor effects, thus supporting heat health systems where alerts are based on duration of hot humid days. Although the finding is based on a single late summer heatwave, adaptations to extreme temperature in late summer seem to be unlikely.

Measuring Accuracy of Discharge Diagnoses for a Region-Wide Surveillance of Hospitalized Strokes

Background and Purpose— Measuring the impact of stroke through population-based stroke registers is complex and costly. The aim of the present study is to assess the validity of hospital discharge diagnoses (all ages) and to estimate the total number of hospitalized stroke events in the Veneto region (Northeastern Italy, 4 500 000 inhabitants). Methods— All discharges covering a 1-year period (1999) from Veneto hospitals with International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision codes 342, 430 to 434, and 436 to 438 were identified. A stratified sample was extracted and submitted to retrospective clinical record review according to the World Health Organization MONItoring trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease stroke project. Using the positive predictive value (PPV) for validated acute stroke of each code to adjust for inaccuracy of discharge diagnoses, an estimate of hospital strokes was obtained. Results— 4015 admissions were reviewed. Codes 430, 431, 434, and 436 as primary diagnoses had the highest PPV, which sharply decreased in the other diagnostic levels. Code 342 also showed a high PPV. The probability of suspected events meeting the stroke definition increased with age and was highest for patients admitted to neurological wards and for fatal events. Overall 9400 strokes (first-ever and recurrent) were estimated to be hospitalized in 1999, with an attack rate of 208 per 100 000. Conclusions— Our data indicate that once validation studies are undertaken on a sample of all hospitalized events, hospital discharge records can provide a valuable source of information on the actual burden of strokes on hospital services.

Evidence-based Policy on Road Safety: The Effect of the Demerit Points System on Seat Belt Use and Health Outcomes

Objective: To assess the effect of a demerit points system, introduced in Italy in July 2003, on the prevalence of seat belt use (intermediate outcome) and the number of road traffic deaths and injuries (health outcomes). Design: Pre- and post-intervention regional observational study for seat belt investigation (April 2003, October 2004); national time-series analysis of road traffic deaths and injuries between 1999 and 2004 for health outcomes. Setting: Veneto region, Italy. Participants: 19 551 drivers, 19 057 front passengers and 8123 rear passengers estimated to be aged over 11 years were included in the investigation into seat belt use. 38 154 fatalities and 1 938 550 injured subjects were examined for the time-series analysis. Interventions: Demerit points system. Main outcome measures: The proportions of drivers and front and rear passengers observed to be using seat belts before and after the intervention; estimates of lives and injuries saved through the implementation of a penalty points system. Results: The demerit points system was followed by an increase in observed seat belt use of 51.8% (95% confidence interval 48.7% to 54.9%) among drivers, of 42.3% (95% confidence interval 39.2% to 45.5%) among front passengers and of 120.7% (95% confidence interval 99.4% to 144.3%) among rear passengers. It is estimated that 1545 (95% confidence interval 1387 to 1703; p<0.0001) deaths and 91 772 (95% confidence interval 67 762 to 115 783; p<0.0001) injuries were prevented in the 18 months after the introduction of the legislation, i.e. an 18% reduction (1545/8570) in fatalities and a 19% reduction (91 772/473 048) in injuries. Conclusions: The demerit points system is effective both in encouraging drivers and passengers to adhere to the law and in terms of health outcomes, substantially contributing to road safety.

Obstetric hospitalizations among Italian women, regular and irregular immigrants in North-Eastern Italy

Objective. Italy has become an important host country for economic immigrants. The study is aimed at providing a descriptive analysis of obstetric hospitalizations among Italian and immigrant women in North‐Eastern Italy. Design. Population‐based registry descriptive study. Setting. Veneto Region, Italy. Methods. All obstetric hospitalizations in 2006–2007 were extracted from the regional archive of hospital discharge records (n = 144,698). Discharges for vaginal delivery, cesarean section, threatened abortion and other antepartum diagnoses, miscarriages, and induced abortions were identified among residents with Italian or foreign citizenship, and irregular immigrants. Hospitalization rates for the above diagnostic categories were computed for Italian and foreign Veneto residents. Main outcome measures. Delivery rates, proportion of cesarean sections, hospitalization rates for antepartum hospitalizations, miscarriage, induced abortion, and hospitalization rate ratios of immigrants versus Italian women. Results. Among Italian women, regular and irregular immigrants, the percentages of teenage deliveries were 0.7, 2.9, and 8.4%; the ratios of miscarriages to deliveries were 0.16, 0.15 and 0.35; the ratios of induced abortions to deliveries were 0.13, 0.24 and 0.81, respectively. Regular immigrants accounted for 10% of population aged 15–49 and for 20% of deliveries. The age‐related increase in miscarriage risk was steeper among regular immigrants. The induced abortions to deliveries ratio peaked among Italians aged <25 and regular immigrants aged ≥35 years. 40% of Italians and 30% of regular immigrants sought care outside nearest hospitals. Conclusions. Wide differences in reproductive behavior, health status, and patterns in the access to health services exist between Italians, regular and irregular immigrants even though they represent three connected populations.

Sustainability of the effects of the demerit points system on seat belt use: a region-wide before-and-after observational study in Italy.

To assess the short and long term effects of the demerit points system on seat belt use, we set a region-wide cross-sectional observational study 3 months before, and 3 and 15 months after the introduction of the scheme (July 2003) in the Veneto Region, Italy. We analysed differences in seat belt use by year of observation, gender and position in the vehicle, and obtained adjusted prevalence ratio (APR) through Poisson regression. A total of 29,303 drivers, 28,778 front and 12,186 rear passengers were observed. Prevalence levels of 54% for drivers and 53% for front passengers in 2003 switched to 83 and 76%, respectively, 3 months after the new legislation, with further slight increases 15 months thereafter. Seventy-four percent rear passengers were still not compliant with the legislation in 2005. The probability of being belted was 25% lower in males than females (APR=0.75, 95% CI 0.73-0.77) at the beginning of the study period. However, the effect of the new legislation was 19% greater among males (APR=1.19, 95% CI 1.16-1.23). A substantial increase in seat belt use was reached and sustained with the demerit points system. Specific efforts should target rear passengers whose seat belt use still remains worryingly low.

Monitoring the occurrence of diabetes mellitus and its major complications: the combined use of different administrative databases

ObjectiveDiabetes mellitus is a growing public health problem, for which efficient and timely surveillance is a key policy. Administrative databases offer relevant opportunities for this purpose. We aim to monitor the incidence of diabetes and its major complications using administrative data.Study design and methodsWe study a population of about 850000 inhabitants in the Veneto Region (Italy) from the end of year 2001 to the end of year 2004. We use four administrative databases with record linkage. Databases of drug prescriptions and of exemptions from medical charge were linked to identify diabetic subjects; hospital discharge records and mortality data were used for the assessment of macrovascular and renal complications and vital status.ResultsWe identified 30230 and 34620 diabetic subjects at the start and at the end of the study respectively. The row prevalence increased from 38.3/1000 (95% CI 37.2 – 39.5) to 43.2/1000 (95% CI 42.3 – 44) for males and from 34.7/1000 (95% CI 33.9 – 35.5) to 38.1/1000 (95% CI 37.4 – 39) for females. The mean row incidence is 5.3/1000 (95% CI 5 – 5.6) person years for males and 4.8/1000 (95% CI 4.4 – 5.2) person years for females. The rate of hospitalisations for cardiovascular or kidney diseases is greatly increased in diabetic people with respect to non diabetics for both genders. The mortality relative risk is particularly important in younger age classes: diabetic males and females aged 45–64 years present relative risk for death of 1.7 (95% CI 1.58 – 1.88) and 2.6 (95% CI 2.29 – 2.97) respectively.ConclusionThis study provides a feasible and efficient method to determine and monitor the incidence and prevalence of diabetes and the occurrence of its complications along with indexes of morbidity and mortality.

Variability of adenoidectomy/tonsillectomy rates among children of the Veneto Region, Italy.

BackgroundDespite national guidelines in 2003 aimed at limiting the recourse to tonsillectomy and/or adenoidectomy (A/T), the latter are among the most frequent pediatric surgeries performed in Italy. Aim of the study is to investigate variability of A/T rates among children of the Veneto Region, Italy.MethodsAll discharges of Veneto residents with Diagnosis-Related Groups 57–60 and ICD9-CM intervention codes 28.2 (tonsillectomy), 28.3 (adenotonsillectomy), 28.6 (adenoidectomy) were selected in the period 2000–2006 for a descriptive analysis. A multilevel Poisson regression model was applied to estimate Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) with 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) for A/T surgery among children aged 2–9 years in 2004–2006, while taking into account clustering of interventions within the 21 Local Health Units.ResultsThrough 2000–2006, the overall number of A/T surgeries decreased (-8%); there was a decline of adenoidectomies (-20%) and tonsillectomies (-8%), whereas adenotonsillectomies raised (+18%). Analyses on children aged 2–9 resulted in an overall rate of 14.4 surgeries per 1000 person-years (16.1 among males and 12.5 among females), with a wide heterogeneity across Local Health Units (range 8.1–27.6). At random intercept Poisson regression, while adjusting for sex and age, intervention rates were markedly lower among foreign than among Italian children (IRR = 0.57, CI 0.53–0.61). A/T rates in the 10–40 age group (mainly tonsillectomies) computed for each Local Health Unit and introduced in the regression model accounted for 40% of the variance at Local Health Unit level of pediatric rates (mainly adenoidectomies and adenotonsillectomies).ConclusionA/T rates in the Veneto Region, especially adenoidectomies among children aged 2–9 years, remain high notwithstanding a decrease through 2000–2006. A wide heterogeneity according to nationality and Local Health Units is evident. The propensity to A/T surgery of each Local Health Unit is similar in different age groups and for different surgical indications.

Seat belt use among rear passengers: validity of self-reported versus observational measures

BackgroundThe effects of seat belt laws and public education campaigns on seat belt use are assessed on the basis of observational or self-reported data on seat belt use.Previous studies focusing on front seat occupants have shown that self-reports indicate a greater seat belt usage than observational findings.Whether this over-reporting in self reports applies to rear seat belt usage, and to what extent, have yet to be investigated.We aimed to evaluate the over-reporting factor for rear seat passengers and whether this varies by gender and under different compulsory seat belt use conditions.MethodsThe study was conducted in the Veneto Region, an area in the North-East of Italy with a population of 4.7 million.The prevalence of seat belt use among rear seat passengers was determined by means of a cross-sectional self-report survey and an observational study.Both investigations were performed in two time periods: in 2003, when rear seat belt use was not enforced by primary legislation, and in 2005, after rear seat belt use had become compulsory (June 2003).Overall, 8138 observations and 7902 interviews were recorded.Gender differences in the prevalence of rear seat belt use were examined using the chi-square test. The over-reporting factor, defined as the ratio of the self-reported to the observed prevalence of rear seat belt use, was calculated by gender before and after the rear seat belt legislation came into effect.ResultsAmong rear seat passengers, self-reported rates were always higher than the observational findings, with an overall over-reporting factor of 1.4.We registered no statistically significant changes over time in the over-reporting factor, nor any major differences between genders.ConclusionSelf-reported seat belt usage by rear passengers represents an efficient alternative to observational studies for tracking changes in actual behavior, although the reported figures need to be adjusted using an appropriate over-reporting factor in order to gain an idea of genuine seat belt use.

Effect of the new diagnostic criteria for ST-elevation and non-ST-elevation acute myocardial infarction on 4-year hospitalization: an analysis of hospital discharge records in the Veneto Region.

Objective To assess the burden of hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and the impact of the new diagnostic criteria for acute myocardial infarction on epidemiology of ACSs. Methods We analysed the hospital discharge record archives of the Veneto Region in the period 2000–2003, including admissions of regional residents outside the study area. We defined a list of ICD-9-CM codes for the identification of different types of ACS. We examined trends in standardized hospitalization rates as well as patient characteristics (age, sex) and pattern of care (setting, invasive revascularization, length of hospital stay, in-hospital mortality). Results The hospitalization rate for non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction increased by about 70%, with a parallel decrease in hospitalizations for unstable angina, whereas the hospitalization rate for ST-elevation myocardial infarction remained unchanged. These trends are likely influenced by the new diagnostic criteria for acute myocardial infarction. At the end of the study period, although the main patient characteristics did not vary substantially, the pattern of care turned out to be more aggressive. Conclusions Despite some limitations, our results indicate that the new diagnostic criteria for acute myocardial infarction have a major impact on epidemiological evaluation. These data may be relevant when comparing epidemiological data of different periods and planning healthcare policies. Further studies are needed in order to evaluate the accuracy of ICD-9-CM codes in the diagnosis of ACSs.