Pascal Oettli

Are regional climate models relevant for crop yield prediction in West Africa

This study assesses the accuracy of state-of-the-art regional climate models for agriculture applications in West Africa. A set of nine regional configurations with eight regional models from the ENSEMBLES project is evaluated. Although they are all based on similar large-scale conditions, the performances of regional models in reproducing the most crucial variables for crop production are extremely variable. This therefore leads to a large dispersion in crop yield prediction when using regional models in a climate/crop modelling system. This dispersion comes from the different physics in each regional model and also the choice of parametrizations for a single regional model. Indeed, two configurations of the same regional model are sometimes more distinct than two different regional models. Promising results are obtained when applying a bias correction technique to climate model outputs. Simulated yields with bias corrected climate variables show much more realistic means and standard deviations. However, such a bias correction technique is not able to improve the reproduction of the year-to-year variations of simulated yields. This study confirms the importance of the multi-model approach for quantifying uncertainties for impact studies and also stresses the benefits of combining both regional and statistical downscaling techniques. Finally, it indicates the urgent need to address the main uncertainties in atmospheric processes controlling the monsoon system and to contribute to the evaluation and improvement of climate and weather forecasting models in that respect.

A Regional Climate Mode Discovered in the North Atlantic: Dakar Niño/Niña.

The interrannual variability of coastal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies confined off Senegal is explored from a new viewpoint of the ocean-land-atmosphere interaction. The phenomenon may be classified into “coastal Niño/Niña” in the North Atlantic as discussed recently in the Northeastern Pacific and Southeastern Indian Oceans. The interannual variability of the regional mixed-layer temperature anomaly that evolves in boreal late fall and peaks in spring is associated with the alongshore wind anomaly, mixed-layer depth anomaly and cross-shore atmospheric pressure gradient anomaly, suggesting the existence of ocean-land-atmosphere coupled processes. The coupled warm (cold) event is named Dakar Niño (Niña). The oceanic aspect of the Dakar Niño (Niña) may be basically explained by anomalous warming (cooling) of the anomalously thin (thick) mixed-layer, which absorbs shortwave surface heat flux. In the case of Dakar Niña, however, enhancement of the entrainment at the bottom of the mixed-layer is not negligible.

La question de la vulnérabilité et de l'adaptation de l'agriculture sahélienne au climat au sein du programme AMMA

Rural populations in Soudano-Sahelian Africa are known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to a combination of naturally high levels of climate variability, high reliance on climate sensitive activities such as rain-fed agriculture and limited economic and institutional capacity to cope with and adapt to climate variability and change. Urgent actions are required to tackle the issues raised by climate change in Soudano-Sahelian Africa and these actions need to be supported by the best knowledge available. The AMMA program is attempting to revitalize research in Africa in this field through an integrated interdisciplinary framework that aims to increase our understanding of the problem and support decision making for the future.The first phase of AMMA tackled three major issues: (i) increase our understanding of the relationships between climate and agriculture (ii) quantify the vulnerability of agriculture productivity to climate change and (iii) explore pathways to cope with climate variability and change. This synthesis will show results from the first phase of the AMMA program to illustrate progress in each of these three issues.

Climate Based Predictability of Oil Palm Tree Yield in Malaysia

The influence of local conditions and remote climate modes on the interannual variability of oil palm fresh fruit bunches (FFB) total yields in Malaysia and two major regions (Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah/Sarawak) is explored. On a country scale, the state of sea-surface temperatures (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean during the previous boreal winter is found to influence the regional climate. When El Niño occurs in the Pacific Ocean, rainfall in Malaysia reduces but air temperature increases, generating a high level of water stress for palm trees. As a result, the yearly production of FFB becomes lower than that of a normal year since the water stress during the boreal spring has an important impact on the total annual yields of FFB. Conversely, La Niña sets favorable conditions for palm trees to produce more FFB by reducing chances of water stress risk. The region of the Leeuwin current also seems to play a secondary role through the Ningaloo Niño/ Niña in the interannual variability of FFB yields. Based on these findings, a linear model is constructed and its ability to reproduce the interannual signal is assessed. This model has shown some skills in predicting the total FFB yield.