Pascal Terray

Drying of Indian subcontinent by rapid Indian Ocean warming and a weakening land-sea thermal gradient

There are large uncertainties looming over the status and fate of the South Asian summer monsoon, with several studies debating whether the monsoon is weakening or strengthening in a changing climate. Our analysis using multiple observed datasets demonstrates a significant weakening trend in summer rainfall during 1901-2012 over the central-east and northern regions of India, along the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basins and the Himalayan foothills, where agriculture is still largely rain-fed. Earlier studies have suggested an increase in moisture availability and land-sea thermal gradient in the tropics due to anthropogenic warming, favouring an increase in tropical rainfall. Here we show that the land-sea thermal gradient over South Asia has been decreasing, due to rapid warming in the Indian Ocean and a relatively subdued warming over the subcontinent. Using long-term observations and coupled model experiments, we provide compelling evidence that the enhanced Indian Ocean warming potentially weakens the land-sea thermal contrast, dampens the summer monsoon Hadley circulation, and thereby reduces the rainfall over parts of South Asia.

Two Independent Triggers for the Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal Mode in a Coupled GCM

The question of whether and how tropical Indian Ocean dipole or zonal mode (IOZM) interannual variability is independent of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability in the Pacific is addressed in a comparison of twin 200-yr runs of a coupled climate model. The first is a reference simulation, and the second has ENSO-scale variability suppressed with a constraint on the tropical Pacific wind stress. The IOZM can exist in the model without ENSO, and the composite evolution of the main anomalies in the Indian Ocean in the two simulations is virtually identical. Its growth depends on a positive feedback between anomalous equatorial easterly winds, upwelling equatorial and coastal Kelvin waves reducing the thermocline depth and sea surface temperature off the coast of Sumatra, and the atmospheric dynamical response to the subsequently reduced convection. Two IOZM triggers in the boreal spring are found. The first is an anomalous Hadley circulation over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent, with an early northward penetration of the Southern Hemisphere southeasterly trades. This situation grows out of cooler sea surface temperatures in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean left behind by a reinforcement of the late austral summer winds. The second trigger is a consequence of a zonal shift in the center of convection associated with a developing El Nino, a Walker cell anomaly. The first trigger is the only one present in the constrained simulation and is similar to the evolution of anomalies in 1994, when the IOZM occurred in the absence of a Pacific El Nino state. The presence of these two triggers-the first independent of ENSO and the second phase locking the IOZM to El Nino-allows an understanding of both the existence of IOZM events when Pacific conditions are neutral and the significant correlation between the IOZM and El Nino.

Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature and El Niño–Southern Oscillation: A New Perspective

Abstract Here the 1976–77 climate regime shift that was accompanied by a remarkable change in the lead–lag relationships between Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and El Nino evolution is shown. After the 1976–77 regime shift, a correlation analysis suggests that southern Indian Ocean SSTs observed during late boreal winter are a key precursor in predicting El Nino evolution as the traditional oceanic heat content anomalies in the equatorial Pacific or zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific. The possible physical mechanisms underlying this highly significant statistical relationship are discussed. After the 1976–77 regime shift, southern Indian Ocean SST anomalies produced by Mascarene high pulses during boreal winter trigger coupled air–sea processes in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean during the following seasons. This produces a persistent remote forcing on the Pacific climate system, promoting wind anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific and modulating the regional Ha...

The Curious Case of Indian Ocean Warming

AbstractRecent studies have pointed out an increased warming over the Indian Ocean warm pool (the central-eastern Indian Ocean characterized by sea surface temperatures greater than 28.0°C) during the past half-century, although the reasons behind this monotonous warming are still debated. The results here reveal a larger picture—namely, that the western tropical Indian Ocean has been warming for more than a century, at a rate faster than any other region of the tropical oceans, and turns out to be the largest contributor to the overall trend in the global mean sea surface temperature (SST). During 1901–2012, while the Indian Ocean warm pool went through an increase of 0.7°C, the western Indian Ocean experienced anomalous warming of 1.2°C in summer SSTs. The warming of the generally cool western Indian Ocean against the rest of the tropical warm pool region alters the zonal SST gradients, and has the potential to change the Asian monsoon circulation and rainfall, as well as alter the marine food webs in t...

Impact of intra-daily SST variability on ENSO characteristics in a coupled model

This paper explores the impact of intra-daily Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability on the tropical large-scale climate variability and differentiates it from the response of the system to the forcing of the solar diurnal cycle. Our methodology is based on a set of numerical experiments based on a fully global coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation in which we alter (1) the frequency at which the atmosphere sees the SST variations and (2) the amplitude of the SST diurnal cycle. Our results highlight the complexity of the scale interactions existing between the intra-daily and inter-annual variability of the tropical climate system. Neglecting the SST intra-daily variability results, in our CGCM, to a systematic decrease of 15% of El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude. Furthermore, ENSO frequency and skewness are also significantly modified and are in better agreement with observations when SST intra-daily variability is directly taken into account in the coupling interface of our CGCM. These significant modifications of the SST interannual variability are not associated with any remarkable changes in the mean state or the seasonal variability. They can therefore not be explained by a rectification of the mean state as usually advocated in recent studies focusing on the diurnal cycle and its impact. Furthermore, we demonstrate that SST high frequency coupling is systematically associated with a strengthening of the air-sea feedbacks involved in ENSO physics: SST/sea level pressure (or Bjerknes) feedback, zonal wind/heat content (or Wyrtki) feedback, but also negative surface heat flux feedbacks. In our model, nearly all these results (excepted for SST skewness) are independent of the amplitude of the SST diurnal cycle suggesting that the systematic deterioration of the air-sea coupling by a daily exchange of SST information is cascading toward the major mode of tropical variability, i.e. ENSO.

Space-Time Structure of Monsoon Interannual Variability

The analysis of corrected ship reports [sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), air temperature (AT)] and corrected land data (SLP, AT, rainfall) in the Indian sector reveals the existence of two low-frequency modes of monsoon variability during the 1900-1970 period. - A definite biennial (B) mode exists on the SLP fields. This B oscillation is unambiguously linked with a southwest-northeast SLP anomaly gradient. During the summer monsoon, the B SLP pattern can be interpreted as an expansion/contraction of the monsoon activity since this mode is strongly coupled with rainfall variations over peninsular India. - A strong low-frequency (LF) mode with period spanning 4-6 years is also seen on SLP fields over the Indian Ocean and subcontinent. The variance associated with this band is typically more important than the one observed for the B mode, and its spatial mark is also strikingly different since it is linked with a global pattern of variation. This mode has also a strong influence on the Indian summer rainfall fluctuations, particularly on the Ghats and in the Indo-Gangetic plains. The amplitude of these oscillations varies widely during the 1900-1970 period. The LF mode is well defined during 1900-1923 and 1947-1970. There is a tendency for the energy associated with the B mode to decrease on the land while it increases over the Indian Ocean during the whole 1900-1970 interval. Although these two timescales exist also on SST fields, cross-spectral analysis shows that ocean-atmosphere interactions are much stronger at the B timescale. This result stresses the B nature of the monsoon system. The existence of these interannual signals in the Indian areas where the annual cycle is so strong raises difficult problems : How can climatic anomalies persist for several years in spite of strong seasonality ? Or, still more intriguing, how can be explained the persistence of climatic anomalies during one year and the appearance of opposite sign climatic anomalies in the following year for the B mode ? A composite analysis has suggested an explanation for this last problem : SST anomalies produced by exceptional summer monsoons can indeed persist during the whole winter and exert an influence on the next summer monsoon.

Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon hydroclimate in a warming world

Rising propensity of precipitation extremes and concomitant decline of summer-monsoon rains are amongst the most distinctive hydroclimatic signals that have emerged over South Asia since 1950s. A clear understanding of the underlying causes driving these monsoon hydroclimatic signals has remained elusive. Using a state-of-the-art global climate model with high-resolution zooming over South Asia, we demonstrate that a juxtaposition of regional land-use changes, anthropogenic-aerosol forcing and the rapid warming signal of the equatorial Indian Ocean is crucial to produce the observed monsoon weakening in recent decades. Our findings also show that this monsoonal weakening significantly enhances occurrence of localized intense precipitation events, as compared to the global-warming response. A 21st century climate projection using the same high-resolution model indicates persistent decrease of monsoonal rains and prolongation of soil drying. Critical value-additions from this study include (1) realistic simulation of the mean and long-term historical trends in the Indian monsoon rainfall (2) robust attributions of changes in moderate and heavy precipitation events over Central India (3) a 21st century projection of drying trend of the South Asian monsoon. The present findings have profound bearing on the regional water-security, which is already under severe hydrological-stress.

Subtropical Dipole Modes Simulated in a Coupled General Circulation Model

The growth and decay mechanisms of subtropical dipole modes in the southern Indian and South Atlantic Oceans and their impacts on southern African rainfall are investigated using results from a coupled general circulationmodeloriginallydevelopedforpredictingtropicalclimatevariations.Thesecond(most)dominant mode of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the southern Indian (South Atlantic) Ocean represents a northeast‐southwest oriented dipole, now called subtropical dipole mode. The positive (negative) SST interannualanomalypole startsto grow in australspring and reachesits peakin February.In austral late spring, the suppressed (enhanced) latent heat flux loss associated with the variations in the subtropical high causes a thinner (thicker) than normal mixed layer thickness that, in turn, enhances (reduces) the warming of the mixed layer by the climatological shortwave radiation. The positive (negative) pole gradually decays in austral fall because the mixed layercooling by the entrainmentis enhanced(reduced),mostlyowing to the larger (smaller) temperature difference between the mixed layer and the entrained water. The increased (decreased) latent heat loss due to the warmer (colder) SST also contributes to the decay of the positive (negative) pole. Although furtherverification using longerobservational data is required,the present coupled model suggests that the South Atlantic subtropical dipole may play a more important role in rainfall variations over the southern African region than the Indian Ocean subtropical dipole.

Impacts of Indian Ocean SST biases on the Indian Monsoon: as simulated in a global coupled model

In this study, the impact of the ocean–atmosphere coupling on the atmospheric mean state over the Indian Ocean and the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is examined in the framework of the SINTEX-F2 coupled model through forced and coupled control simulations and several sensitivity coupled experiments. During boreal winter and spring, most of the Indian Ocean biases are common in forced and coupled simulations, suggesting that the errors originate from the atmospheric model, especially a dry islands bias in the Maritime Continent. During boreal summer, the air-sea coupling decreases the ISM rainfall over South India and the monsoon strength to realistic amplitude, but at the expense of important degradations of the rainfall and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) mean states in the Indian Ocean. Strong SST biases of opposite sign are observed over the western (WIO) and eastern (EIO) tropical Indian Ocean. Rainfall amounts over the ocean (land) are systematically higher (lower) in the northern hemisphere and the south equatorial Indian Ocean rainfall band is missing in the control coupled simulation. During boreal fall, positive dipole-like errors emerge in the mean state of the coupled model, with warm and wet (cold and dry) biases in the WIO (EIO), suggesting again a significant impact of the SST errors. The exact contributions and the distinct roles of these SST errors in the seasonal mean atmospheric state of the coupled model have been further assessed with two sensitivity coupled experiments, in which the SST biases are replaced by observed climatology either in the WIO (warm bias) or EIO (cold bias). The correction of the WIO warm bias leads to a global decrease of rainfall in the monsoon region, which confirms that the WIO is an important source of moisture for the ISM. On the other hand, the correction of the EIO cold bias leads to a global improvement of precipitation and circulation mean state during summer and fall. Nevertheless, all these improvements due to SST corrections seem drastically limited by the atmosphere intrinsic biases, including prominently the unimodal oceanic position of the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) during summer and the enhanced westward wind stress along the equator during fall.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.