Pat McGowan

Coups and Conflict in West Africa, 1955-2004 Part I, Theoretical Perspectives

From independence through 2004, the sixteen West African states have experienced forty-four successful military-led coups, forty-three often-bloody failed coups, at least eighty-two coup plots, seven civil wars, and many other forms of political conflict. This two-part article seeks answers to the question, what has gone wrong inWest Africa? Part I uses world-systems and rational-choice analyses to provide theoretical answers involving macro structures and micro leadership behavior. Structural peripherality and poor leadership result in underdevelopment and state weakness, the major structural causes of West African instability. Empirical evidence demonstratesWest Africas peripheral role in the world-economy, the high risks associated with political leadership in the region, andWest Africas critical socioeconomic situation. Part II, appearing in the January 2006 issue, will examine new data on coups and conflict inWest Africa and speculate on what can be done to improve the situation.

Economic Dependence and Economic Performance in Black Africa

Samir Amin has recently argued that black African countries are all characterised by extreme forms of underdevelopment. In his view, this situation is produced by the dependency of African states on more developed countries that is a consequence of the continents common historical experience of economic exploitation by European-organised mercantilism, the slave trade, imperialism, and colonialism. Moreover, via the mechanisms of western-based neo-colonialism, African under-development has been perpetuated, and perhaps even increased, during the achievement of political independence over the past 25 years.

Afrikaner Fears and the Politics of Despair: Understanding Change in South Africa

In light of recent changes in South African politics symbolized by the release from prison of Mr. Nelson Mandela, we ask three related questions: (1) Why has the Afrikaner-dominated government of President F. W. de Klerk decided at this time to initiate a process of political reform? (2) Is there any chance at all that a negotiated settlement to the countrys problems can be reached? and (3) What theoretical perspective best enables us to answer these questions? In seeking answers we use data collected in a 1988 mail questionnaire from a nationwide sample of elite Afrikaner politicians, civil servants, businessmen, clergy, academics, and journalists. Our theoretical perspective questions both neo-Marxist and neo-liberal versions of “modernization theory” with their excessive focus on capitalist development as the motor of change and, in contrast, stresses how black political practices have affected white attitudes and political transformation. We demonstrate the fundamental role of individual attitudes in the circle of reciprocal influence between the economy and the polity. Our evidence indicates that prominent Afrikaners appear willing to accept a federal system in which power would be shared among participating racial groups, but they are not yet prepared to agree to the nonracial democracy demanded by apartheids opponents. We thus see negotiations as likely, but whether they will result in a “post-apartheid” South Africa will depend upon continuing black resistance to race-based politics.

Coups and Conflict in West Africa, 1955-2004 Part II, Empirical Findings

From independence through 2004, the sixteen West African states have experienced forty-four successful military-led coups, forty-three often-bloody failed coups, at least eighty-two coup plots, seven civil wars, and many other forms of political conflict. Part I of this article used a political-economy approach to provide theoretical explanations of this record. Part II presents a unique data set describing all coup-related events in West Africa since 1955. Military interventions are widespread, occurring repeatedly in fourteen states. These data permit examination of coup behavior over the past fifty years. No evidence of declining coup activity is found. The major instances of war and conflict are reported, and it is shown that coups and conflict are reciprocally related. Changes that might reduce coups and conflict and permit these countries and their 238 million citizens to have better lives are discussed in the conclusion.

International data as a national resource

Nation‐states are increasingly recognizing that banks of knowledge, including social science data, are a national resource vital for understanding the course of events. Criteria for considering a dataset in the fields of cross‐national and interstate politics to be a national resource include theoretic fertility, centrality in current research, cumulative contribution to knowledge, data quality, and methodological contribution. Published data‐based research and responses to a questionnaire by leading North American researchers in the field indicate substantial consensus on the importance of maintaining and improving datasets on national attributes (such as the World Handbooks) and interstate conflict (especially the Correlates of War projects). Researchers should also pay attention to rethinking and generating enhanced datasets of both interstate events and the international political economy.

The “new” South Africa: Ascent or descent in the world system?

Abstract Focusing more on South Africas international cultural‐political‐economic strengths and weaknesses than on current domestic affairs, as it moves away from apartheid, this article examines the new South Africas chances for ascent (development) or descent (underdevelopment) within the world system. Politically, the State will remain weak by international standards. Economically, it is in decline, largely because it is uncompetitive internationally; and these negative trends well pre‐date the unrest and sanctions of the mid‐1980s. It is concluded that the new South Africa will be fortunate to maintain its present position in the medium‐term.

Imperialism in World-System Perspective

The origins of current world inequality are to be found in the nineteenth century, particularly in the period 1870–1914. The development of the world economy in this period is described, including the unique political-economic role of Great Britain within the world-system. A theory of imperialism based on the laissez-faire capitalist business cycle is developed which is intended to explain both British expansion and the accumulation of capital in the core, which is the single most salient feature of world inequality.

Teaching International Studies from a Regional Perspective: An ISP Symposium on Power, Wealth and Global Order: An International Textbook for Africa

Thanks to a suggestion made by Tim Shaw (Dalhousie University), the Editors of ISP decided about a year ago to commission a discussion of the textbook Power, Wealth and Global Order: An International Relations Textbook for Africa. This symposium aims at increasing our understanding of the different, regionally specific perspectives that can be brought to bear when studying international relations outside of North America and Western Europe. We want to thank Prof. Donald Gordon for the time he spent on examining the volume at hand and for his insightful analysis of the contribution made by the editors and authors of the textbook. Based on this discussion, we then asked four other authors from diverse areas of the world (Venezuela, Korea, Slovenia, and Russia) to read Prof. Gordon’s analysis and respond to a set of questions we posed to them. Those questions and their comments follow Prof. Gordon’s essay. We would also like to invite other ISA members from anywhere in the world to comment on this subject, as a continuing effort to engage important pedagogical topics in the pages of ISP.

Forecasting African coups d' etat

ABSTRACT Thirty‐five majority‐ruled states of Sub‐Saharan Africa independent at the end of 1970 are studied. Data from 1960 through the end of 1982 are reported on each states experience with military interventions into national politics: coups, attempted coups, and coup plots. The resulting Total Military Intervention Score (TMIS) index for 1960–1982 is explained by a ten variable, single equation regression model based upon theories of social mobilization, political institutionalization, civil‐military relations, and international political economy. This explanatory model is used to generate ex post forecasts of TMIS for 1970–1982. Using a linear probability model and discriminant function analysis based upon the original explanatory model and the ex post results, ex ante forecasts of serious military interventions for the two years 1983–1984 are generated. These forecasts are compared to the actual record of interventions in these two years. Finally, using Bayesian methods, forecasts of interventions ...

Noodsaaklike vereistes vir ‘n onder‐handelde skikking in Suid‐Afrika: vrese en verwagtinge van die Afrikanerelite

ABSTRACT This paper presents the results of a major attitude survey conducted among members of the Afrikaner elite in 1988. The findings are related to two questions: Why did President de Klerks government change course, and can a negotiated settlement be achieved? Respondents displayed a significant loss of confidence in the ability of P. W. Bothas government to protect white interests or ensure Afrikaner survival. They could see both advantages and disadvantages in majority rule, evincing contradictory beliefs about prospects for the economy, democracy, and inter‐group relations. Despite fears for the future, they recognised the need for new initiatives, and were willing to accept majority rule with certain constitutional safeguards. The authors argue that a negotiated settlement will depend on De Klerks readiness to move into genuine negotiations, and the ability of this process to produce results acceptable to both leading parties, in which Afrikaners’ fears are taken into account.