Patrick B. Johnston

Does Decapitation Work? Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership Targeting in Counterinsurgency Campaigns

Is killing or capturing insurgent leaders an effective tactic? Previous research on interstate war and counterterrorism has suggested that targeting enemy leaders does not work. Most studies of the efficacy of leadership decapitation, however, have relied on unsystematic evidence and poor research design. An analysis based on fresh evidence and a new research design indicates the opposite relationship and yields four key findings. First, campaigns are more likely to end quickly when counterinsurgents successfully target enemy leaders. Second, counterinsurgents who capture or kill insurgent leaders are significantly more likely to defeat insurgencies than those who fail to capture or kill such leaders. Third, the intensity of a conflict is likelier to decrease following the successful removal of an enemy leader than it is after a failed attempt. Fourth, insurgent attacks are more likely to decrease after successful leadership decapitations than after failed attempts. Additional analysis suggests that these findings are attributable to successful leadership decapitation, and that the relationship between decapitation and campaign success holds across different types of insurgencies.

Impact of Fish Oil-Based Lipid Emulsion on Serum Triglyceride, Bilirubin, and Albumin Levels in Children With Parenteral Nutrition-Associated Liver Disease

Parenteral nutrition is known to cause liver injury in babies. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of different lipid emulsions on parenteral nutrition-associated cholestasis in infants. In addition, there may be a relationship between the lipid emulsion and triglyceride levels. Furthermore, triglyceride levels may correlate with direct bilirubin and albumin, as markers of liver impairment and nutritional status. Patients with parenteral nutrition-associated cholestasis who were treated with a fish oil-based lipid emulsion (n = 18) were prospectively followed for triglyceride, direct bilirubin, and albumin levels and compared with patients who were maintained on a soy-based lipid emulsion (n = 59). Triglyceride levels decreased in the fish oil cohort from a mean of 140 mg/dL at wk 0 to 40 mg/dL at wk 20 but remained unchanged at ∼140 mg/dL in the soybean cohort. Triglyceride levels of patients treated with fish oil declined over time, while those receiving soybean oil did not. Also, changes in triglyceride levels over time were directly correlated with direct bilirubin and inversely related to albumin levels. These findings may indicate an added benefit of reduced triglyceride levels for patients treated with fish oil and this effect coincides with markers for improved liver function and nutritional status.

The Future of Insurgency

What are key historical trends in insurgencies? And what do these finding suggest about the future of insurgency? We examine four aspects: causes of insurgency, outside support, strategies, and tactics. Based on an examination of quantitative and qualitative data, we make several arguments about the future. China could become increasingly involved in supporting insurgencies and counterinsurgencies if its economic and military power continues to increase and its global interest expands. In addition, insurgent groups will likely require less time to achieve high levels of sophistication for improvised explosive devices and other asymmetric tactics, which we expect they will use against more powerful mechanized counterinsurgent forces. We also expect that insurgent groups may take advantage of commercially-available technology to communicate, distribute propaganda, and recruit individuals. In addition, insurgents will likely make further use of encryption, anonymizing services, location-masking tools, and other related technologies to protect their online activities.