Patrick E. Guinan

Climate forecasts for corn producer decision making

AbstractCorn is the most widely grown crop in the Americas, with annual production in the United States of approximately 332 million metric tons. Improved climate forecasts, together with climate-related decision tools for corn producers based on these improved forecasts, could substantially reduce uncertainty and increase profitability for corn producers. The purpose of this paper is to acquaint climate information developers, climate information users, and climate researchers with an overview of weather conditions throughout the year that affect corn production as well as forecast content and timing needed by producers. The authors provide a graphic depicting the climate-informed decision cycle, which they call the climate forecast–decision cycle calendar for corn.

Evaluating Linkages between Atmospheric Blocking Patterns and Heavy Rainfall Events across the North-Central Mississippi River Valley for Different ENSO Phases

Over the last six to seven decades, there has been a substantial increase in atmospheric research to better understand the dynamics and evolution of atmospheric blocking events. It is well known that atmospheric blocking serves as a catalyst for increasing the frequency of atmospheric flow regime stagnation and forecast unpredictability. This study built upon the results of previous work by expanding upon the findings of various climatologies and case studies.This work analyzes specific trends observed in association with atmospheric blocking predominantly across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Such trends include the relationship between the size, duration, and onset position of atmospheric blocking events and the frequency, duration, and intensity of heavy rainfall events across the central United States. A strong focus is placed on examining the duration and spatial extent of atmospheric blocking which has been found to influence the intensity of heavy rainfall events. The goal is to further bridge the gap between the location and duration of blocking highs and the intensity, duration, and frequency of heavy rainfall events which occur downstream of such blocking events.