Patrick Francioli

Clinical progression and virological failure on highly active antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 patients: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUNDnThe efficacy of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in suppression of HIV-1 is well documented. We investigated virological and clinical outcomes of HAART in routine practice.nnnMETHODSnWe analysed prospective data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study on suppression of viral load and progression to AIDS or death in 2674 outpatients (median age 36 years, 27.3% women) who started HAART in 1995-98. Viral rebound was defined as two consecutive HIV-1-RNA measurements of more than 400 copies/mL. We analysed separately outcomes in patients with a history of antiretroviral treatment and in treatment-naïve patients.nnnFINDINGSnAn estimated 90.7% of treatment-naïve patients reached undetectable viral load (<400 copies/mL) by 12 months. Among pretreated patients, estimates ranged from 70.3% treated with one new drug to 78.7% on three new drugs. 2 years after reaching undetectable concentrations, an estimated 20.1% of treatment-naïve patients and 35.7-40.1% of pretreated patients had viral rebound. At 30 months, an estimated 6.6% (95% CI 4.6-8.6) of patients who had maintained undetectable concentrations, 9.0% (5.5-12.5) who had viral rebound, and 20.1% (15.3-24.9) who had never reached undetectable concentrations developed AIDS or died. Compared with patients who maintained undetectable viral load, the adjusted relative hazard of AIDS or death was 1.00 (0.66-1.55) for patients with viral rebound, and 2.40 (1.72-3.33) for patients who failed to reach undetectable concentrations.nnnINTERPRETATIONnThe rate of virological failure of HAART was high among these patients, but the probability of clinical progression was low even in patients with viral rebound.

Prevalence of adverse events associated with potent antiretroviral treatment: Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUNDnData on adverse events to antiretroviral treatment have been recorded in clinical trials, post-marketing analyses, and anecdotal reports. Such data might not be an up-to-date or comprehensive assessment of all possible treatment combinations defined as potent antiretroviral treatment.nnnMETHODSnUsing a standard clinical and laboratory method, we assessed prevalence of adverse events in 1160 patients who were receiving antiretroviral treatment. We measured the toxic effects associated with the drug regimen (protease inhibitor [PI], non-nucleoside and nucleoside analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitor) and specific compounds using multivariate analyses.nnnFINDINGSn47% (545 of 1160) of patients presented with clinical and 27% (194 of 712) with laboratory adverse events probably or definitely attributed to antiretroviral treatment. Among these, 9% (47 of 545) and 16% (30 of 194), respectively, were graded as serious or severe. Single-PI and PI-sparing-antiretroviral treatment were associated with a comparable prevalence of adverse events. Compared with single-PI treatment, use of dual-PI-antiretroviral treatment and three-class-antiretroviral treatment was associated with higher prevalence of adverse events (odds ratio [OR] 2.0 [95% CI 1.0-4.0], and 3.9 [1.2-12.9], respectively). Compound specific associations were identified for zidovudine, lamivudine, stavudine, didanosine, abacavir, ritonavir, saquinavir, indinavir, nelfinavir, efavirenz, and nevirapine.nnnINTERPRETATIONnWe recorded a high prevalence of toxic effects attributed to antiretroviral treatment for HIV-1. Such data provides a reference for regimen-specific and compound-specific adverse events and could be useful in postmarketing analyses of toxic effects.

Prevalence and risk factors for nosocomial infections in four University Hospitals in Switzerland

OBJECTIVEnTo determine the prevalence and risk factors for nosocomial infections (NIs) in four Swiss university hospitals.nnnDESIGN AND SETTINGnA 1-week period-prevalence survey conducted in May 1996 in medical, surgical, and intensive-care wards of four Swiss university hospitals (900-1,500 beds). Centers for Disease Control and Prevention definitions were used, except that asymptomatic bacteriuria was not categorized as NI. Study variables included patient demographics, primary diagnosis, comorbidities, exposure to medical and surgical risk factors, and use of antimicrobials. Risk factors for NIs were determined using logistic regression with adjustment for length of hospital stay, study center, device use, and patients comorbidities.nnnRESULTSn176 NI were recorded in 156 of 1,349 screened patients (11.6%; interhospital range, 9.8%-13.5%). The most frequent NI was surgical-site infection (53; 30%), followed by urinary tract infection (39; 22%), lower respiratory tract infection (27; 15%), and bloodstream infection (23; 13%). Prevalence of NI was higher in critical-care units (25%) than in medical (9%) and surgical wards (12%). Overall, 65% of NIs were culture-proven; the leading pathogens were Enterobacteriaceae (44; 28%), Staphylococcus aureus (20; 13%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (17; 11%), and Candida species (16; 10%). Independent risk factors for NI were central venous catheter (CVC) use (odds ratio [OR], 3.35; 95% confidence interval [CI95], 2.91-3.80), admission to intensive care (OR, 1.75; CI95, 1.30-2.21), emergency admission (OR, 1.57; CI95, 1.15-2.00), impaired functional status (Karnofsky index 1-4: OR, 2.56; CI95, 1.953.17), and McCabe classification of ultimately fatal (OR, 2.50; CI95, 2.04-2.96) or rapidly fatal (OR, 2.25; CI95, 1.52-2.98) underlying condition.nnnCONCLUSIONSnAccording to the results of this survey, NIs are frequent in Swiss university hospitals. This investigation confirms the importance of CVCs as a major risk factor for NI. Patient comorbidities must be taken into account to adjust for case mix in any study comparing interhospital or intrahospital infection rates.

Short-term clinical disease progression in HIV-1-positive patients taking combination antiretroviral therapy: the EuroSIDA risk-score

Objectives:To derive and validate a clinically applicable prognostic score for predicting short-term disease progression in HIV-infected patients taking combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). Design and methods:Poisson regression was used to identify prognostic markers for new AIDS/death in patients taking cART. A score was derived for 4169 patients from EuroSIDA and validated on 5150 patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). Results:In EuroSIDA, 658 events occurred during 22 321 person-years of follow-up: an incidence rate of 3.0/100 person-years of follow-up [95% confidence interval (CI), 2.7–3.3]. Current levels of viral load, CD4 cell count, CD4 cell slope, anaemia, and body mass index all independently predicted new AIDS/death, as did age, exposure group, a prior AIDS diagnosis, prior antiretroviral treatment and stopping all antiretroviral drugs. The EuroSIDA risk-score was divided into four strata; a patient in the lowest strata would have predicted chance of new AIDS/death of 1 in 801, 1 in 401 and 1 in 201 within the next 3, 6 or 12 months, respectively. The corresponding figures for the highest strata were 1 in 17, 1 in 9 and 1 in 5, respectively. A single-unit increase in the risk-score was associated with a 2.70 times higher incidence of clinical progression (95% CI, 2.56–2.84) in EuroSIDA and 2.88 (95% CI, 2.75–3.02) in SHCS. Conclusions:A clinically relevant prognostic score was derived in EuroSIDA and validated within the SHCS, with good agreement. The EuroSIDA risk-score will be made available publicly via an interface that will perform all calculations for the individual.

Population pharmacokinetic modelling and evaluation of different dosage regimens for darunavir and ritonavir in HIV-infected individuals

OBJECTIVESnDarunavir is a protease inhibitor that is administered with low-dose ritonavir to enhance its bioavailability. It is prescribed at standard dosage regimens of 600/100 mg twice daily in treatment-experienced patients and 800/100 mg once daily in naive patients. A population pharmacokinetic approach was used to characterize the pharmacokinetics of both drugs and their interaction in a cohort of unselected patients and to compare darunavir exposure expected under alternative dosage regimens.nnnMETHODSnThe study population included 105 HIV-infected individuals who provided darunavir and ritonavir plasma concentrations. Firstly, a population pharmacokinetic analysis for darunavir and ritonavir was conducted, with inclusion of patients demographic, clinical and genetic characteristics as potential covariates (NONMEM(®)). Then, the interaction between darunavir and ritonavir was studied while incorporating levels of both drugs into different inhibitory models. Finally, model-based simulations were performed to compare trough concentrations (Cmin) between the recommended dosage regimen and alternative combinations of darunavir and ritonavir.nnnRESULTSnA one-compartment model with first-order absorption adequately characterized darunavir and ritonavir pharmacokinetics. The between-subject variability in both compounds was important [coefficient of variation (CV%) 34% and 47% for darunavir and ritonavir clearance, respectively]. Lopinavir and ritonavir exposure (AUC) affected darunavir clearance, while body weight and darunavir AUC influenced ritonavir elimination. None of the tested genetic variants showed any influence on darunavir or ritonavir pharmacokinetics. The simulations predicted darunavir Cmin much higher than the IC50 thresholds for wild-type and protease inhibitor-resistant HIV-1 strains (55 and 550 ng/mL, respectively) under standard dosing in >98% of experienced and naive patients. Alternative regimens of darunavir/ritonavir 1200/100 or 1200/200 mg once daily also had predicted adequate Cmin (>550 ng/mL) in 84% and 93% of patients, respectively. Reduction of darunavir/ritonavir dosage to 600/50 mg twice daily led to a 23% reduction in average Cmin, still with only 3.8% of patients having concentrations below the IC50 for resistant strains.nnnCONCLUSIONSnThe important variability in darunavir and ritonavir pharmacokinetics is poorly explained by clinical covariates and genetic influences. In experienced patients, treatment simplification strategies guided by drug level measurements and adherence monitoring could be proposed.

Regional and temporal changes in AIDS in Europe before HAART

In a prospective observational study 4,485 patients from 46 clinical centres in 17 European countries were followed between April 1994 and November 1996. Information on AIDS-defining events (ADEs) were collected together with basic demographic data, treatment history and laboratory results. The centres were divided into four geographical regions (north, central, south-west and south-east) so that it was possible to identify any existing regional differences in ADEs. The regional differences that we observed included a higher risk of all forms of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infections (Tb) and wasting disease in the south-west and an increased risk of infections with the Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) in the north. In Cox multivariable analyses, where north was used as the reference group, we observed hazard ratios of 6.87, 7.77, 2.29 and 0.16 (P < 0.05 in all cases) for pulmonary Tb, extrapulmonary Tb, wasting disease and MAC respectively in the south-west. Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (PCP) was less commonly diagnosed in the central region (RH = 0.51, 95% CI 0 32-0.79, P = 0.003) and most common in the south-east (RH = 1.04, 95% CI 0.71-1.51, P = 0.85). Comparisons with a similar AIDS in Europe study that concentrated on the early phase of the epidemic reveal that most of the regional differences that were observed in the 1980s still persist in the mid-1990s.

Short-term risk of AIDS according to current CD4 cell count and viral load in antiretroviral drug-naive individuals and those treated in the monotherapy era

Background: One key piece of information required when deciding whether to initiate antiretroviral therapy is the risk of AIDS before the next clinic visit. Information on the short-term (6-month) risk of AIDS according to the current viral load and CD4 cell count in untreated individuals and those treated in the zidovudine monotherapy era (i.e., pre-September 1995), especially in those with CD4 cell count > 200 × 106 cells/l, is lacking. Methods: Risk of AIDS was assessed in 3226 subjects with viral load and CD4 cell count known before initiation of antiretroviral therapy or during the zidovudine monotherapy era. These were from CASCADE Collaboration in which data from 20 cohorts of individuals with known dates of seroconversion to HIV, based in clinics in Europe and Australia, have been combined. Results: During a total 5126.0 person-years of follow-up, 219 individuals developed AIDS. In those with current CD4 cell count < 200 × 106 cells/l, 6-month risks were 4.9, 12.7, 17.7 and 22.4% for viral load groups < 10 000, 10 000–29 999, 30 000– 99 999 and ⩾ 100 000 copies/ml, respectively. For CD4 cell counts 200–349 × 106 cells/l risks were 0.5, 1.6, 3.2 and 4.7%, respectively, for the four viral load groups while the corresponding values for group with CD4 cell count ⩾ 350 × 106 cells/l were 0.2%, 0.5%, 0.9% and 2.2%, respectively. Results were similar when analysis was restricted to those with no antiretroviral drug experience. Older people had a higher risk of AIDS for a given CD4 cell count and viral load than younger people. Conclusion: Combined with consideration of other issues, these estimates should prove useful information when deciding whether to initiate antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected individuals.