Patrick Heimbach

An Eddy-Permitting Southern Ocean State Estimate

Abstract An eddy-permitting general circulation model of the Southern Ocean is fit by constrained least squares to a large observational dataset during 2005–06. Data used include Argo float profiles, CTD synoptic sections, Southern Elephant Seals as Oceanographic Samplers (SEaOS) instrument-mounted seal profiles, XBTs, altimetric observations [Envisat, Geosat, Jason-1, and Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon], and infrared and microwave radiometer observed sea surface temperature. An adjoint model is used to determine descent directions in minimizing a misfit function, each of whose elements has been weighted by an estimate of the observational plus model error. The model is brought into near agreement with the data by adjusting its control vector, here consisting of initial and meteorological boundary conditions. Although total consistency has not yet been achieved, the existing solution is in good agreement with the great majority of the 2005 and 2006 Southern Ocean observations and better repr...

North Atlantic warming and the retreat of Greenland's outlet glaciers

Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet quadrupled over the past two decades, contributing a quarter of the observed global sea-level rise. Increased submarine melting is thought to have triggered the retreat of Greenlands outlet glaciers, which is partly responsible for the ice loss. However, the chain of events and physical processes remain elusive. Recent evidence suggests that an anomalous inflow of subtropical waters driven by atmospheric changes, multidecadal natural ocean variability and a long-term increase in the North Atlantics upper ocean heat content since the 1950s all contributed to a warming of the subpolar North Atlantic. This led, in conjunction with increased runoff, to enhanced submarine glacier melting. Future climate projections raise the potential for continued increases in warming and ice-mass loss, with implications for sea level and climate.

Decadal Trends in Sea Level Patterns: 1993–2004

Abstract Estimates of regional patterns of global sea level change are obtained from a 1° horizontal resolution general circulation model constrained by least squares to about 100 million ocean observations and many more meteorological estimates during the period 1993–2004. The data include not only altimetric variability, but most of the modern hydrography, Argo float profiles, sea surface temperature, and other observations. Spatial-mean trends in altimetric data are explicitly suppressed to isolate global average long-term changes required by the in situ data alone. On large scales, some regions display strong signals although few individual points have statistically significant trends. In the regional patterns, thermal, salinity, and mass redistribution contributions are all important, showing that regional sea level change is tied directly to the general circulation. Contributions below about 900 m are significant, but not dominant, and are expected to grow with time as the abyssal ocean shifts. Esti...

Estimated Decadal Changes in the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heat Flux 1993–2004

Abstract Results from a global 1° model constrained by least squares to a multiplicity of datasets over the interval 1992–2004 are used to describe apparent changes in the North Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation and associated heat fluxes at 26°N. The least squares fit is both stable and adequately close to the data to make the analysis worthwhile. Changes over the 12 yr are spatially and temporally complex. A weak statistically significant trend is found in net North Atlantic volume flux above about 1200 m, which drops slightly (−0.19 ± 0.05 Sv yr−1; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) but with a corresponding strengthening of the outflow of North Atlantic Deep Water and inflow of abyssal waters. The slight associated trend in meridional heat flux is very small and not statistically significant. The month-to-month variability implies that single-section determinations of heat and volume flux are subject to serious aliasing errors.

Estimating Eddy Stresses by Fitting Dynamics to Observations Using a Residual-Mean Ocean Circulation Model and Its Adjoint

A global ocean circulation model is formulated in terms of the “residual mean” and used to study eddy–mean flow interaction. Adjoint techniques are used to compute the three-dimensional eddy stress field that minimizes the departure of the coarse-resolution model from climatological observations of temperature. The resulting 3D maps of eddy stress and residual-mean circulation yield a wealth of information about the role of eddies in large-scale ocean circulation. In eddy-rich regions such as the Southern Ocean, the Kuroshio, and the Gulf Stream, eddy stresses have an amplitude comparable to the wind stress, of order 0.2 N m � 2 , and carry momentum from the surface down to the bottom, where they are balanced

NASA supercomputer improves prospects for ocean climate research

Estimates of ocean circulation constrained by in situ and remotely sensed observations have become routinely available during the past five years, and they are being applied to myriad scientific and operational problems [Stammer et al., 2002]. Under the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE), several regional and global estimates have evolved for applications in climate research, seasonal forecasting, naval operations, marine safety, fisheries, the offshore oil industry coastal management, and other areas. This article reports on recent progress by one effort, the consortium for Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO), toward a next-generation synthesis of ocean and sea-ice data that is global, that covers the full ocean depth, and that permits eddies.

Challenges to understanding the dynamic response of Greenland's marine terminating glaciers to oceanic and atmospheric forcing

A working group on Greenland Ice Sheet-Ocean Interactions (GRISO), composed of representatives from the multiple disciplines involved, was established in January 2011 to develop strategies to address dynamic response of Greenlands glaciers to climate forcing. Critical aspects of Greenlands coupled ice sheet-ocean system are identified, and a research agenda is outlined that will yield fundamental insights into how the ice sheet and ocean interact, their role in Earths climate system, their regional and global effects, and probable trajectories of future changes. Key elements of the research agenda are focused process studies, sustained observational efforts at key sites, and inclusion of the relevant dynamics in Earth system models. Interdisciplinary and multiagency efforts, as well as international cooperation, are crucial to making progress on this novel and complex problem. This will prove as a significant step toward fulfilling the goal of credibly projecting sea level rise over the coming decades and century.

OpenAD/F: A Modular Open-Source Tool for Automatic Differentiation of Fortran Codes

The Open/ADF tool allows the evaluation of derivatives of functions defined by a Fortran program. The derivative evaluation is performed by a Fortran code resulting from the analysis and transformation of the original program that defines the function of interest. Open/ADF has been designed with a particular emphasis on modularity, flexibility, and the use of open source components. While the code transformation follows the basic principles of automatic differentiation, the tool implements new algorithmic approaches at various levels, for example, for basic block preaccumulation and call graph reversal. Unlike most other automatic differentiation tools, Open/ADF uses components provided by the Open/AD framework, which supports a comparatively easy extension of the code transformations in a language-independent fashion. It uses code analysis results implemented in the OpenAnalysis component. The interface to the language-independent transformation engine is an XML-based format, specified through an XML schema. The implemented transformation algorithms allow efficient derivative computations using locally optimized cross-country sequences of vertex, edge, and face elimination steps. Specifically, for the generation of adjoint codes, Open/ADF supports various code reversal schemes with hierarchical checkpointing at the subroutine level. As an example from geophysical fluid dynamics, a nonlinear time-dependent scalable, yet simple, barotropic ocean model is considered. OpenAD/Fs reverse mode is applied to compute sensitivities of some of the models transport properties with respect to gridded fields such as bottom topography as independent (control) variables.

Dynamically and Kinematically Consistent Global Ocean Circulation and Ice State Estimates

Abstract The World Ocean Circulation Experiment drove the development of estimates of the decadal scale time evolving general circulation that are dynamically and kinematically consistent. A long timescale, and a goal of estimation rather than prediction, preclude the use of meteorological methods called “data assimilation (DA).” Instead, “state estimation” methods are reviewed here and distinguished from DA. Results from the dynamically consistent family of solutions from the project Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean based upon least-squares Lagrange multipliers (adjoints) are used to discuss the determination of the dominant elements of the circulation in the period since 1992—which marked the beginning of the satellite altimetric record. Significant changes documented in the Arctic in recent decades now mandate consideration of the coupled ocean-cryospheric state.

Estimates of the Southern Ocean general circulation improved by animal‐borne instruments

Over the last decade, several hundred seals have been equipped with conductivity-temperature-depth sensors in the Southern Ocean for both biological and physical oceanographic studies. A calibrated collection of seal-derived hydrographic data is now available, consisting of more than 165,000 profiles. The value of these hydrographic data within the existing Southern Ocean observing system is demonstrated herein by conducting two state estimation experiments, differing only in the use or not of seal data to constrain the system. Including seal-derived data substantially modifies the estimated surface mixed-layer properties and circulation patterns within and south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Agreement with independent satellite observations of sea ice concentration is improved, especially along the East Antarctic shelf. Instrumented animals efficiently reduce a critical observational gap, and their contribution to monitoring polar climate variability will continue to grow as data accuracy and spatial coverage increase.