Dimitris Menemenlis

Inverse estimates of anthropogenic CO2 uptake, transport, and storage by the ocean

deviation of the models weighted by a CFC-based model skill score, which reduces the error range and emphasizes those models that have been shown to reproduce observed tracer concentrations most accurately. The greatest anthropogenic CO2 uptake occurs in the Southern Ocean and in the tropics. The flux estimates imply vigorous northward transport in the Southern Hemisphere, northward cross-equatorial transport, and equatorward transport at high northern latitudes. Compared with forward simulations, we find substantially more uptake in the Southern Ocean, less uptake in the Pacific Ocean, and less global uptake. The large-scale spatial pattern of the estimated flux is generally insensitive to possible biases in the data and the models employed. However, the global uptake scales approximately linearly with changes in the global anthropogenic CO2 inventory. Considerable uncertainties remain in some regions, particularly the Southern Ocean.

Inverse estimates of the oceanic sources and sinks of natural CO2 and the implied oceanic carbon transport

[1]xa0We use an inverse method to estimate the global-scale pattern of the air-sea flux of natural CO2, i.e., the component of the CO2 flux due to the natural carbon cycle that already existed in preindustrial times, on the basis of ocean interior observations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and other tracers, from which we estimate ΔCgasex, i.e., the component of the observed DIC that is due to the gas exchange of natural CO2. We employ a suite of 10 different Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs) to quantify the error arising from uncertainties in the modeled transport required to link the interior ocean observations to the surface fluxes. The results from the contributing OGCMs are weighted using a model skill score based on a comparison of each models simulated natural radiocarbon with observations. We find a pattern of air-sea flux of natural CO2 characterized by outgassing in the Southern Ocean between 44°S and 59°S, vigorous uptake at midlatitudes of both hemispheres, and strong outgassing in the tropics. In the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics, the inverse estimates generally agree closely with the natural CO2 flux results from forward simulations of coupled OGCM-biogeochemistry models undertaken as part of the second phase of the Ocean Carbon Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP-2). The OCMIP-2 simulations find far less air-sea exchange than the inversion south of 20°S, but more recent forward OGCM studies are in better agreement with the inverse estimates in the Southern Hemisphere. The strong source and sink pattern south of 20°S was not apparent in an earlier inversion study, because the choice of region boundaries led to a partial cancellation of the sources and sinks. We show that the inversely estimated flux pattern is clearly traceable to gradients in the observed ΔCgasex, and that it is relatively insensitive to the choice of OGCM or potential biases in ΔCgasex. Our inverse estimates imply a southward interhemispheric transport of 0.31 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−1, most of which occurs in the Atlantic. This is considerably smaller than the 1 Pg C yr−1 of Northern Hemisphere uptake that has been inferred from atmospheric CO2 observations during the 1980s and 1990s, which supports the hypothesis of a Northern Hemisphere terrestrial sink.

Carbon isotope evidence for the latitudinal distribution and wind speed dependence of the air-sea gas transfer velocity

The air–sea gas transfer velocity is an important determinant of the exchange of gases, including CO2, between the atmosphere and ocean, but the magnitude of the transfer velocity and what factors control it remains poorly known. Here, we use oceanic and atmospheric observations of 14C and 13C to constrain the global mean gas transfer velocity as well as the exponent of its wind speed dependence, utilizing the distinct signatures left by the air–sea exchange of 14CO2 and 13CO2. While the atmosphere and ocean inventories of 14CO2 and 13CO2 constrain the mean gas transfer velocity, the latitudinal pattern in the atmospheric and oceanic 14C and 13C distributions contain information about the wind speed dependence. We computed the uptake of bomb 14C by the ocean for different transfer velocity patterns using pulse response functions from an ocean general circulation model, and evaluated the match between the predicted bomb 14C concentrations and observationally based estimates for the 1970s–1990s. Using a wind speed climatology based on satellite measurements, we solved either for the best-fit global relationship between gas exchange and mean wind speed or for the mean gas transfer velocity over each of 11 ocean regions. We also compared the predicted consequences of different gas exchange relationships on the rate of change and interhemisphere gradient of 14C in atmospheric CO2 with tree-ring and atmospheric measurements. Our results suggest that globally, the dependence of the air–sea gas transfer velocity on wind speed is close to linear, with an exponent of 0.5 ± 0.4, and that the global mean gas transfer velocity at a Schmidt number of 660 is 20 ± 3 cm/hr, similar to the results of previous analyses. We find that the air–sea flux of 13C estimated from atmosphere and ocean observations also suggests a lower than quadratic dependence of gas exchange on wind speed.

Role of tides on the formation of the Antarctic Slope Front at the Weddell‐Scotia Confluence

The structure of the Antarctic Slope Front (ASF) and the associated Antarctic Slope Current (ASC) on the Scotia Sea side of the Weddell-Scotia Confluence (WSC) is described using data from a hydrographic survey and three 1 year long moorings across the continental slope. The ASC in this region flows westward along isobaths with an annual mean speed of ∼0.2 m s−1, with time variability dominated by the K1 and O1 tidal diurnal constituents, a narrowband oscillation with ∼2-week period attributable to the spring/neap tidal cycle, and seasonal variability. Realistic and idealized high-resolution numerical simulations are used to determine the contribution of tides to the structure of the ASF and the speed of the ASC. Two simulations forced by realistic atmospheric forcing and boundary conditions integrated with and without tidal forcing show that tidal forcing is essential to reproduce the measured ASF/ASC cross-slope structure, the time variability at our moorings, and the reduced stratification within the WSC. Two idealized simulations run with tide-only forcing, one with a homogeneous ocean and the other with initial vertical stratification that is laterally homogeneous, show that tides can generate the ASC and ASF through volume flux convergence along the slope initiated by effects including the Lagrangian component of tidal rectification and mixing at the seabed and in the stratified ocean interior. Climate models that exclude the effects of tides will not correctly represent the ASF and ASC or their influence on the injection of intermediate and dense waters from the WSC to the deep ocean.