Patrick S. Roberts

How Teaching World Religions Brought a Truce to the Culture Wars in Modesto, California.

Despite a growing consensus among scholars and activists about the importance of religion, proposals for teaching about it have often been a source of division rather than unity in American public school districts. Faced with familiar cultural conflicts, Modesto, California, chose to become the first public school district in the USA to require all high school students to take an extended and independent course in world religions. The results of the first, large‐scale empirical research on the effects of teaching about religion in USA public schools provides evidence that Modesto’s bold approach was worth the risk. Surveys and interviews administered to students show statistically significant increases in students’ knowledge about other religions, and levels of passive tolerance – willingness to refrain from discrimination – and active tolerance – willingness to act to counter discrimination. The course has not been the subject of lawsuits or complaints by parents and has gained acceptance among all of Modesto’s religious groups.

Discrimination in a Disaster Agency’s Security Culture

The prevalence of security concerns in emergency management offers the unfortunate possibility that administrative processes may tap deep fears and engage in discriminatory practices without sufficient accountability because of secrecy, time pressure, and an organizational culture that calls for preparing for the worst. The Federal Emergency Management Agency was ostensibly intended to be a natural disaster agency, but its security culture in past decades justified plans that would have included discriminatory practices against marginalized groups. These cases should temper expectations about what government can and should do in imagining worst-case scenarios to prepare for emergencies.

Learning about World Religions in Modesto, California: The Promise of Teaching Tolerance in Public Schools

After cultural and religious controversy in Modesto, California, community leaders attempted to increase tolerance and respect by requiring an unique world religions course for high school students. The first large-n empirical study of the effect of teaching about religion in public schools indicates that students taking the course showed statistically significant increases in passive tolerance, their willingness to refrain from discriminatory behavior, and active respect, the willingness to take action to counter discrimination. This research documents the circumstances that gave rise to the course and evaluates the courses effects using qualitative and quantitative evidence. It also connects the course to a larger research tradition in political science on the effects of civic education programs that promote liberal, democratic values.

Decision Biases and Heuristics Among Emergency Managers: Just Like the Public They Manage For?

We present evidence that emergency managers exhibit some of the same decision biases, sensitivity to framing, and heuristics found in studies of the general public, even when making decisions in their area of expertise. Our national survey of county-level emergency managers finds that managers appear more risk averse when the outcomes of actions are framed as gains than when equivalent outcomes are framed as losses, a finding that is consistent with prospect theory. We also find evidence that the perceived actions of emergency managers in neighboring jurisdictions affect the choices a manager makes. In addition, our managers show evidence of attribution bias, outcome bias, and difficulties processing numerical information, particularly probabilities compared to frequencies. Each of these departures from perfect rationality points to potential shortfalls in public managers’ decision making. We suggest opportunities to improve decision making through reframing problems, providing training in structured decision-making processes, and employing different choice architectures to nudge behavior in a beneficial direction.

How emergency managers (mis?)interpret forecasts

Emergency managers who work on floods and other weather-related hazards constitute critical frontline responders to disasters. Yet, while these professionals operate in a realm rife with uncertainty related to forecasts and other unknowns, the influence of uncertainty on their decision-making is poorly understood. Consequently, a national-level survey of county emergency managers in the United States was administered to examine how they interpret forecast information, using hypothetical climate, flood, and weather scenarios to simulate their responses to uncertain information. The study revealed that even emergency managers with substantial experience take decision shortcuts and make biased choices, just as do members of the general population. Their choices vary depending on such features as the format in which probabilistic forecasts are presented and whether outcomes are represented as gains or losses. In sum, forecast producers who consider these decision processes when developing and communicating forecasts could help to improve flood preparation and potentially reduce disaster losses.

Can Climate Signals Inform Emergency Management? Preliminary Evidence

The emergency management community has widely discussed the long-term implications of global climate change for weather-related hazards such as floods, hurricanes, and droughts, but the community has paid relatively little attention to the connection between these hazards and shorter-term seasonal climate fluctuations (e.g., El Niño). This paper explores the potential for applying recent scientific and technical advances in the use of seasonal climate information to improve how emergency managers address such hazards risks and their associated disaster losses. The preliminary analysis presented here begins with a brief review of evidence from the research literature linking mid- and long-term forecasts to flood planning and management. We report on a small telephone survey of emergency managers involved in flood planning and management in 26 Oregon and Washington counties that experience interannual climate-variation that can increase the frequency or intensity of flooding. Our survey findings help illuminate the opportunities and obstacles for using climate science to inform emergency management. We then present results of a 2008 survey of emergency managers and educators that asks about the use of climate information for a wider range of weather-related hazards. We conclude by summarizing the opportunities for and obstacles to the use of climate information in emergency management.