Paul A. Hsieh

Review of flow rate estimates of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

The unprecedented nature of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill required the application of research methods to estimate the rate at which oil was escaping from the well in the deep sea, its disposition after it entered the ocean, and total reservoir depletion. Here, we review what advances were made in scientific understanding of quantification of flow rates during deep sea oil well blowouts. We assess the degree to which a consensus was reached on the flow rate of the well by comparing in situ observations of the leaking well with a time-dependent flow rate model derived from pressure readings taken after the Macondo well was shut in for the well integrity test. Model simulations also proved valuable for predicting the effect of partial deployment of the blowout preventer rams on flow rate. Taken together, the scientific analyses support flow rates in the range of ∼50,000–70,000 barrels/d, perhaps modestly decreasing over the duration of the oil spill, for a total release of ∼5.0 million barrels of oil, not accounting for BPs collection effort. By quantifying the amount of oil at different locations (wellhead, ocean surface, and atmosphere), we conclude that just over 2 million barrels of oil (after accounting for containment) and all of the released methane remained in the deep sea. By better understanding the fate of the hydrocarbons, the total discharge can be partitioned into separate components that pose threats to deep sea vs. coastal ecosystems, allowing responders in future events to scale their actions accordingly.

Identifying fracture‐zone geometry using simulated annealing and hydraulic‐connection data

A new approach is presented to condition geostatistical simulation of high-permeability zones in fractured rock to hydraulic-connection data. A simulated-annealing algorithm generates three-dimensional (3-D) realizations conditioned to borehole data, inferred hydraulic connections between packer-isolated borehole intervals, and an indicator (fracture zone or background-K bedrock) variogram model of spatial variability. We apply the method to data from the U.S. Geological Survey Mirror Lake Site in New Hampshire, where connected high-permeability fracture zones exert a strong control on fluid flow at the hundred-meter scale. Single-well hydraulic-packer tests indicate where permeable fracture zones intersect boreholes, and multiple-well pumping tests indicate the degree of hydraulic connection between boreholes. Borehole intervals connected by a fracture zone exhibit similar hydraulic responses, whereas intervals not connected by a fracture zone exhibit different responses. Our approach yields valuable insights into the 3-D geometry of fracture zones at Mirror Lake. Statistical analysis of the realizations yields maps of the probabilities of intersecting specific fracture zones with additional wells. Inverse flow modeling based on the assumption of equivalent porous media is used to estimate hydraulic conductivity and specific storage and to identify those fracture-zone geometries that are consistent with hydraulic test data.

The Estimation of Fluid Flow Properties from the Response of Water Levels in Wells to the Combined Atmospheric and Earth Tide Forces

The water level in an open well tapping a confined formation is influenced by natural forces including the solid Earth tide (SET) and atmospheric pressure variation (APV). The spectral method is used to analytically derive a model for well response to both random and periodic components of the combined SET and APV forcings (CSA). An inverse theory and algorithm are developed in order to provide improved results when using the model to estimate the hydraulic parameters associated with a given formation. An examination of the response surface of the estimation criterion reveals a uniqueness problem in estimating storativity (S). Since there is little correlation between the transmissivity (T) and S estimators, a good estimate for T is still possible independent of having accurate knowledge of S. An estimate of T is possible only if the data contain sufficient information so that the analysis occurs within an identifiability window. The CSA estimation methodology is compared to individual SET and APV schemes. The CSA scheme gives the greatest probability that sufficient information is contained in a data record so that T is indeed identifiable. The results of applications to synthetic data indicate that the CSA scheme gives a T estimate with the most precision and also that it requires collecting fewer observations. These results are discussed in light of practical considerations when designing data collection procedures.

Crosswell seismic investigation of hydraulically conductive, fractured bedrock near Mirror Lake, New Hampshire

Abstract Near Mirror Lake, New Hampshire (USA), hydraulically conductive, fractured bedrock was investigated with the crosswell seismic method to determine whether this method could provide any information about hydraulic conductivity between wells. To this end, crosswell seismic data, acoustic logs from boreholes, image logs from boreholes, and single borehole hydraulic tests were analyzed. The analysis showed that, first, the P-wave velocities from the acoustic logs tended to be higher in schist than they were in granite. (Schist and granite were the dominant rock types). Second, the P-wave velocities from the acoustic logs tended to be low near fractures. Third, the hydraulic conductivity was always low (always less than to 10−8 m/s) where no fractures intersected the borehole, but the hydraulic conductivity ranged from low to high (from less than to 10−10 m/s to 10−4 m/s) where one or more fractures intersected the borehole. Fourth, high hydraulic conductivities were slightly more frequent when the P-wave velocity was low (less than 5200 m/s) than when it was high (greater than or equal to 5200 m/s). The interpretation of this statistical relation was that the fractures tended to increase the hydraulic conductivity and to lower the P-wave velocity. This statistical relation was applied to a velocity tomogram to create a map showing the probability of high hydraulic conductivity; the map was consistent with results from independent hydraulic tests.

Scientific basis for safely shutting in the Macondo Well after the April 20, 2010 Deepwater Horizon blowout

As part of the government response to the Deepwater Horizon blowout, a Well Integrity Team evaluated the geologic hazards of shutting in the Macondo Well at the seafloor and determined the conditions under which it could safely be undertaken. Of particular concern was the possibility that, under the anticipated high shut-in pressures, oil could leak out of the well casing below the seafloor. Such a leak could lead to new geologic pathways for hydrocarbon release to the Gulf of Mexico. Evaluating this hazard required analyses of 2D and 3D seismic surveys, seafloor bathymetry, sediment properties, geophysical well logs, and drilling data to assess the geological, hydrological, and geomechanical conditions around the Macondo Well. After the well was successfully capped and shut in on July 15, 2010, a variety of monitoring activities were used to assess subsurface well integrity. These activities included acquisition of wellhead pressure data, marine multichannel seismic profiles, seafloor and water-column sonar surveys, and wellhead visual/acoustic monitoring. These data showed that the Macondo Well was not leaking after shut in, and therefore, it could remain safely shut until reservoir pressures were suppressed (killed) with heavy drilling mud and the well was sealed with cement.

Estimating Hydraulic Parameters When Poroelastic Effects Are Significant

For almost 80 years, deformation-induced head changes caused by poroelastic effects have been observed during pumping tests in multilayered aquifer-aquitard systems. As water in the aquifer is released from compressive storage during pumping, the aquifer is deformed both in the horizontal and vertical directions. This deformation in the pumped aquifer causes deformation in the adjacent layers, resulting in changes in pore pressure that may produce drawdown curves that differ significantly from those predicted by traditional groundwater theory. Although these deformation-induced head changes have been analyzed in several studies by poroelasticity theory, there are at present no practical guidelines for the interpretation of pumping test data influenced by these effects. To investigate the impact that poroelastic effects during pumping tests have on the estimation of hydraulic parameters, we generate synthetic data for three different aquifer-aquitard settings using a poroelasticity model, and then analyze the synthetic data using type curves and parameter estimation techniques, both of which are based on traditional groundwater theory and do not account for poroelastic effects. Results show that even when poroelastic effects result in significant deformation-induced head changes, it is possible to obtain reasonable estimates of hydraulic parameters using methods based on traditional groundwater theory, as long as pumping is sufficiently long so that deformation-induced effects have largely dissipated.

Application of MODFLOW for oil reservoir simulation during the Deepwater Horizon Crisis

When the Macondo well was shut in on July 15, 2010, the shut-in pressure recovered to a level that indicated the possibility of oil leakage out of the well casing into the surrounding formation. Such a leak could initiate a hydraulic fracture that might eventually breach the seafloor, resulting in renewed and uncontrolled oil flow into the Gulf of Mexico. To help evaluate whether or not to reopen the well, a MODFLOW model was constructed within 24 h after shut in to analyze the shut-in pressure. The model showed that the shut-in pressure can be explained by a reasonable scenario in which the well did not leak after shut in. The rapid response provided a scientific analysis for the decision to keep the well shut, thus ending the oil spill resulting from the Deepwater Horizon blow out.

Hydrothermal response to a volcano-tectonic earthquake swarm, Lassen, California

The increasing capability of seismic, geodetic, and hydrothermal observation networks allows recognition of volcanic unrest that could previously have gone undetected, creating an imperative to diagnose and interpret unrest episodes. A November 2014 earthquake swarm near Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, which included the largest earthquake in the area in more than 60 years, was accompanied by a rarely observed outburst of hydrothermal fluids. Although the earthquake swarm likely reflects upward migration of endogenous H2O-CO2 fluids in the source region, there is no evidence that such fluids emerged at the surface. Instead, shaking from the modest sized (moment magnitude 3.85) but proximal earthquake caused near-vent permeability increases that triggered increased outflow of hydrothermal fluids already present and equilibrated in a local hydrothermal aquifer. Long-term, multiparametric monitoring at Lassen and other well-instrumented volcanoes enhances interpretation of unrest and can provide a basis for detailed physical modeling.

Characterization of a High‐Transmissivity Zone by Well Test Analysis: Steady State Case

A method is developed to analyze steady horizontal flow to a well pumped from a confined aquifer composed of two homogeneous zones with contrasting transmissivities. Zone 1 is laterally unbounded and encloses zone 2, which is elliptical in shape and is several orders of magnitude more transmissive than zone 1. The solution for head is obtained by the boundary integral equation method. Nonlinear least squares regression is used to estimate the model parameters, which include the transmissivity of zone 1, and the location, size, and orientation of zone 2. The method is applied to a hypothetical aquifer where zone 2 is a long and narrow zone of vertical fractures. Synthetic data are generated from three different well patterns, representing different areal coverage and proximity to the fracture zone. When zone 1 of the hypothetical aquifer is homogeneous, the method correctly estimates all model parameters. When zone 1 is a randomly heterogeneous transmissivity field, some parameter estimates, especially the length of zone 2, become highly uncertain. To reduce uncertainty, the pumped well should be close to the fracture zone, and surrounding observation wells should cover an area similar in dimension to the length of the fracture zone. Some prior knowledge of the fracture zone, such as that gained from a surface geophysical survey, would greatly aid in designing the well test.

Bioremediation in Fractured Rock: 1. Modeling to Inform Design, Monitoring, and Expectations

Field characterization of a trichloroethene (TCE) source area in fractured mudstones produced a detailed understanding of the geology, contaminant distribution in fractures and the rock matrix, and hydraulic and transport properties. Groundwater flow and chemical transport modeling that synthesized the field characterization information proved critical for designing bioremediation of the source area. The planned bioremediation involved injecting emulsified vegetable oil and bacteria to enhance the naturally occurring biodegradation of TCE. The flow and transport modeling showed that injection will spread amendments widely over a zone of lower-permeability fractures, with long residence times expected because of small velocities after injection and sorption of emulsified vegetable oil onto solids. Amendments transported out of this zone will be diluted by groundwater flux from other areas, limiting bioremediation effectiveness downgradient. At nearby pumping wells, further dilution is expected to make bioremediation effects undetectable in the pumped water. The results emphasize that in fracture-dominated flow regimes, the extent of injected amendments cannot be conceptualized using simple homogeneous models of groundwater flow commonly adopted to design injections in unconsolidated porous media (e.g., radial diverging or dipole flow regimes). Instead, it is important to synthesize site characterization information using a groundwater flow model that includes discrete features representing high- and low-permeability fractures. This type of model accounts for the highly heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity and groundwater fluxes in fractured-rock aquifers, and facilitates designing injection strategies that target specific volumes of the aquifer and maximize the distribution of amendments over these volumes.